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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 11 slate, 2022

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 65 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 67

Wilder than 67% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 17.7 expected

  • Biggest shockArizona over UCLA8.9% chance · won 34-28
  • Runner-upBoston College over NC State9.3% chance · won 21-20
  • Runner-upVanderbilt over Kentucky14% chance · won 24-21

Upsets

Tue, Nov 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Ohio@Miami (OH)
43%
57%
37
21
✗
M-OH −2.2
–
–
Final
Ball State@Toledo
19%
82%
21
28
✓
TOL −13.9
–
–

Wed, Nov 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Eastern Michigan@Akron
65%
35%
34
28
✓
EMU −6.6
–
–

Thu, Nov 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Tulsa@Memphis
26%
74%
10
26
✓
MEM −9.6
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@Louisiana
42%
58%
17
36
✓
UL −2.9
–
–

Time TBD 3 games

Final
Northern Illinois@Western Michigan
52%
48%
24
21
✓
NIU −1.2
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Central Michigan
44%
56%
27
31
✓
CMU −1.9
–
–
Final
Kent State@Bowling Green
50%
50%
40
6
✓
KENT −0.6
–
–

Fri, Nov 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
East Carolina@Cincinnati
30%
70%
25
27
✓
CIN −8.1
–
–
Final
Colorado@#14USC
3.0%
97%
17
55
✓
USC −29.8
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Fresno State@UNLV
68%
32%
37
30
✓
FRES −7.7
–
–

Sat, Nov 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 15 games

Final
#13LSU@Arkansas
55%
45%
13
10
✓
LSU −2.7
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@KentuckyUpset
14%
86%
24
21
✗
UK −16.7
–
–
Final
Missouri@#5Tennessee
8.5%
92%
24
66
✓
TENN −21.5
–
–
Final
#25Oklahoma@West VirginiaUpset
71%
29%
20
23
✗
OU −9.3
–
–
Final
#10Notre DamevsNavy
91%
9.4%
35
32
✓
ND −21.5
–
–
Final
Liberty@UConnUpset
76%
24%
33
36
✗
LIB −11.6
–
–
Final
Purdue@#23IllinoisUpset
34%
66%
31
24
✗
ILL −6.2
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Michigan State
19%
81%
21
27
✓
MSU −13.4
–
–
Final
Indiana@#1Ohio State
0.6%
99%
14
56
✓
OSU −39.9
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Duke
24%
76%
7
24
✓
DUKE −10.9
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Virginia
59%
41%
37
7
✓
PITT −4.2
–
–
Final
SMU@USF
87%
13%
41
23
✓
SMU −18.3
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Georgia StateUpset
17%
83%
31
28
✗
GAST −15.0
–
–
Final
James Madison@Old Dominion
52%
48%
37
3
✓
JMU −1.5
–
–
Final
Rice@Western Kentucky
17%
83%
10
45
✓
WKU −15.0
–
–

Afternoon 21 games

Final
UMass@Arkansas State
10%
90%
33
35
✓
ARST −19.8
–
–
Final
Temple@Houston
11%
89%
36
43
✓
HOU −19.4
–
–
Final
#3Alabama@#22Ole Miss
80%
20%
30
24
✓
ALA −13.6
–
–
Final
Arizona State@Washington State
28%
72%
18
28
✓
WSU −9.1
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Oklahoma State
38%
62%
14
20
✓
OKST −4.5
–
–
Final
Army@Troy
37%
63%
9
10
✓
TROY −4.9
–
–
Final
#20Wisconsin@IowaUpset
45%
55%
10
24
✓
IOWA −1.4
–
–
Final
Northwestern@#19Minnesota
9.8%
90%
3
31
✓
MINN −20.2
–
–
Final
Nebraska@#4Michigan
3.0%
97%
3
34
✓
MICH −29.7
–
–
Final
Maryland@#6Penn State
20%
80%
0
30
✓
PSU −12.8
–
–
Final
#21Louisville@#11Clemson
32%
68%
16
31
✓
CLEM −6.9
–
–
Final
Miami (FL)@Georgia Tech
54%
46%
35
14
✓
MIA −2.1
–
–
Final
Boston College@NC StateUpset
9.3%
91%
21
20
✗
NCSU −20.7
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Air Force
4.1%
96%
3
35
✓
AF −27.5
–
–
Final
UCF@Tulane
54%
46%
38
31
✓
UCF −2.2
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@Marshall
53%
47%
21
28
✗
APP −1.6
–
–
Final
Charlotte@Middle Tennessee
22%
78%
14
24
✓
MTSU −11.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@UTSA
10%
90%
7
51
✓
UTSA −19.7
–
–
Final
North Texas@UAB
37%
63%
21
41
✓
UAB −4.8
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Florida
38%
62%
6
38
✓
FLA −4.3
–
–
Final
Texas State@South Alabama
15%
86%
21
38
✓
USA −16.4
–
–

Prime time 6 games

Final
Texas A&M@Auburn
58%
42%
10
13
✗
TA&M −3.8
–
–
Final
#12TCU@#7Texas
36%
64%
17
10
✗
TEX −5.3
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Wake Forest
40%
60%
36
34
✗
WAKE −3.5
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Coastal Carolina
24%
76%
23
26
✓
CCU −10.8
–
–
Final
#16Florida State@Syracuse
57%
43%
38
3
✓
FSU −3.3
–
–
Final
California@Oregon State
21%
79%
10
38
✓
ORST −12.5
–
–

Late night 5 games

Final
Stanford@#8Utah
9.0%
91%
7
42
✓
UTAH −21.0
–
–
Final
Arizona@#15UCLAUpset
8.9%
91%
34
28
✗
UCLA −21.2
–
–
Final
Boise State@Nevada
85%
15%
41
3
✓
BOIS −16.9
–
–
Final
San Jose State@San Diego State
56%
44%
27
43
✗
SJSU −3.0
–
–
Final
Utah State@Hawaii
64%
36%
41
34
✓
USU −6.1
–
–

Sun, Nov 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 6 games

Final
#2Georgia@#18Mississippi State
84%
16%
45
19
✓
UGA −16.2
–
–
Final
Washington@#9OregonUpset
29%
72%
37
34
✗
ORE −8.6
–
–
Final
#17Kansas State@#24Baylor
48%
52%
31
3
✗
BAY −0.3
–
–
Final
Kansas@Texas Tech
46%
54%
28
43
✓
TTU −1.2
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Colorado State
67%
33%
14
13
✓
WYO −7.6
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@FIU
87%
13%
52
7
✓
FAU −18.7
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 12 · 2:00 PM ET Lamar at New Mexico State New Mexico State −11.6 78%