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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Bowls slate, 2022

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 42 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 38

Wilder than 38% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 15.5 expected

  • Biggest shockTCU over Michigan25% chance · won 51-45
  • Runner-upEastern Michigan over San Jose State31% chance · won 41-27
  • Runner-upWashington over Texas33% chance · won 27-20

Upsets

Fri, Dec 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Miami (OH)vsUAB
24%
76%
20
24
✓
UAB −10.6
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
UTSAvsTroy
59%
41%
12
18
✗
UTSA −4.1
–
–

Sat, Dec 17

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 2 games

Final
Cincinnativs#25Louisville
44%
56%
7
24
✓
LOU −1.8
–
–
Final
Floridavs#21Oregon State
42%
58%
3
30
✓
ORST −2.8
–
–

Afternoon 2 games

Final
Washington StatevsFresno State
54%
46%
6
29
✗
WSU −2.1
–
–
Final
RicevsSouthern Miss
35%
65%
24
38
✓
USM −5.5
–
–

Prime time 2 games

Final
SMUvsBYU
57%
43%
23
24
✗
SMU −3.1
–
–
Final
North TexasvsBoise State
27%
73%
32
35
✓
BOIS −9.4
–
–

Mon, Dec 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
MarshallvsUConn
82%
18%
28
14
✓
MRSH −14.9
–
–

Tue, Dec 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Eastern MichiganvsSan Jose State
31%
69%
41
27
✗
SJSU −7.5
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
LibertyvsToledo
42%
58%
19
21
✓
TOL −2.8
–
–

Wed, Dec 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Western KentuckyvsSouth Alabama
51%
49%
44
23
✓
WKU −0.7
–
–

Thu, Dec 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
BaylorvsAir Force
61%
39%
15
30
✗
BAY −4.9
–
–

Fri, Dec 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 2 games

Final
LouisianavsHouston
31%
69%
16
23
✓
HOU −7.5
–
–
Final
Wake ForestvsMissouri
64%
36%
27
17
✓
WAKE −6.2
–
–

Sat, Dec 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Middle TennesseevsSan Diego State
41%
59%
25
23
✗
SDSU −3.2
–
–

Mon, Dec 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
New Mexico StatevsBowling Green
47%
53%
24
19
✗
BGSU −0.6
–
–

Tue, Dec 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Georgia SouthernvsBuffalo
57%
43%
21
23
✗
GASO −3.3
–
–

Afternoon 2 games

Final
MemphisvsUtah State
82%
18%
38
10
✓
MEM −14.8
–
–
Final
Coastal CarolinavsEast Carolina
33%
67%
29
53
✓
ECU −6.4
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
WisconsinvsOklahoma State
51%
49%
24
17
✓
WIS −0.9
–
–

Wed, Dec 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
UCFvsDuke
62%
38%
13
30
✗
UCF −5.1
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
KansasvsArkansas
30%
70%
53
55
✓
ARK −7.7
–
–

Prime time 2 games

Final
#13OregonvsNorth Carolina
71%
29%
28
27
✓
ORE −9.5
–
–
Final
Texas Techvs#24Ole MissUpset
40%
60%
42
25
✗
MISS −3.5
–
–

Thu, Dec 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Syracusevs#17Minnesota
29%
71%
20
28
✓
MINN −8.5
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
#23Oklahomavs#12Florida State
36%
64%
32
35
✓
FSU −5.0
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#8Texasvs#18Washington
67%
33%
20
27
✗
TEX −7.4
–
–

Fri, Dec 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 2 games

Final
MarylandvsNC State
53%
47%
16
12
✓
MD −1.5
–
–
Final
Pittsburghvs#22UCLAUpset
39%
61%
37
35
✗
UCLA −4.0
–
–

Afternoon 2 games

Final
#15Notre DamevsSouth Carolina
64%
36%
45
38
✓
ND −6.4
–
–
Final
OhiovsWyoming
58%
42%
30
27
✓
OHIO −3.9
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#6Tennesseevs#10Clemson
59%
41%
31
14
✓
TENN −4.1
–
–

Sat, Dec 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 2 games

Final
IowavsKentucky
54%
46%
21
0
✓
IOWA −2.1
–
–
Final
#4Alabamavs#11Kansas State
69%
31%
45
20
✓
ALA −8.5
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
#9TCUvs#3MichiganUpset
25%
75%
51
45
✗
MICH −10.4
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#2Ohio Statevs#1Georgia
44%
56%
41
42
✓
UGA −1.8
–
–

Mon, Jan 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 3 games

Final
#20Mississippi Statevs#19Illinois
48%
52%
19
10
✗
ILL −0.2
–
–
Final
#16LSUvsPurdue
64%
36%
63
7
✓
LSU −6.2
–
–
Final
Tulanevs#14USCUpset
36%
64%
46
45
✗
USC −5.2
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
#5Penn Statevs#7Utah
55%
45%
35
21
✓
PSU −2.5
–
–

Mon, Jan 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#9TCUvs#1Georgia
19%
81%
7
65
✓
UGA −13.7
–
–