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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 12 slate, 2022

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 65 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 84

Wilder than 84% of weeks in the archive.

18 upsets against 15.9 expected

  • Biggest shockGeorgia Tech over North Carolina12% chance · won 21-17
  • Runner-upBowling Green over Toledo12% chance · won 42-35
  • Runner-upNavy over UCF13% chance · won 17-14

Upsets

Wed, Nov 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Eastern Michigan@Kent State
31%
70%
31
24
✗
KENT −7.7
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
Western Michigan@Central Michigan
30%
70%
12
10
✗
CMU −8.1
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Bowling Green@ToledoUpset
12%
88%
42
35
✗
TOL −18.6
–
–
Final
Ohio@Ball State
53%
47%
32
18
✓
OHIO −1.7
–
–

Thu, Nov 17

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
SMU@Tulane
44%
56%
24
59
✓
TULN −2.0
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Miami (OH)@Northern Illinois
42%
58%
29
23
✗
NIU −2.7
–
–

Fri, Nov 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
USF@Tulsa
24%
76%
42
48
✓
TLSA −10.6
–
–
Final
San Diego State@New Mexico
78%
22%
34
10
✓
SDSU −12.7
–
–

Sat, Nov 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 20 games

Final
Navy@#22UCFUpset
13%
87%
17
14
✗
UCF −17.6
–
–
Final
UMass@Texas A&M
0.5%
>99%
3
20
✓
TA&M −40.8
–
–
Final
Florida@VanderbiltUpset
80%
20%
24
31
✗
FLA −13.9
–
–
Final
#9TCU@Baylor
63%
37%
29
28
✓
TCU −5.7
–
–
Final
UConn@Army
20%
80%
17
34
✓
ARMY −12.9
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Liberty
32%
68%
23
22
✗
LIB −6.8
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@Nebraska
72%
28%
15
14
✓
WIS −9.8
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Purdue
14%
86%
9
17
✓
PUR −17.0
–
–
Final
Illinois@#4Michigan
11%
89%
17
19
✓
MICH −19.0
–
–
Final
Indiana@Michigan StateUpset
19%
81%
39
31
✗
MSU −13.5
–
–
Final
Louisiana@#11Florida State
8.3%
92%
17
49
✓
FSU −21.8
–
–
Final
Duke@Pittsburgh
34%
66%
26
28
✓
PITT −6.0
–
–
Final
UTSA@Rice
83%
17%
41
7
✓
UTSA −15.5
–
–
Final
Washington State@Arizona
65%
35%
31
20
✓
WSU −6.7
–
–
Final
#13Kansas State@West Virginia
78%
22%
48
31
✓
KSU −12.8
–
–
Final
Houston@East Carolina
40%
60%
42
3
✗
ECU −3.6
–
–
Final
Georgia State@James Madison
36%
64%
40
42
✓
JMU −5.2
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Arizona State
72%
28%
31
7
✓
ORST −9.9
–
–
Final
Boston College@#16Notre Dame
6.8%
93%
0
44
✓
ND −23.5
–
–
Final
Old Dominion@Appalachian State
17%
83%
14
27
✓
APP −14.7
–
–

Afternoon 18 games

Final
#2Georgia@Kentucky
93%
6.9%
16
6
✓
UGA −24.1
–
–
Final
#8Texas@Kansas
75%
25%
55
14
✓
TEX −11.3
–
–
Final
#1Ohio State@Maryland
92%
7.7%
43
30
✓
OSU −23.2
–
–
Final
#6Penn State@Rutgers
92%
8.4%
55
10
✓
PSU −22.5
–
–
Final
Miami (FL)@#10Clemson
11%
89%
10
40
✓
CLEM −19.0
–
–
Final
NC State@#24Louisville
38%
62%
10
25
✓
LOU −4.3
–
–
Final
South Alabama@Southern Miss
67%
33%
27
20
✓
USA −7.4
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Troy
16%
84%
16
34
✓
TROY −15.5
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Charlotte
54%
46%
21
26
✗
LT −2.0
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Middle Tennessee
62%
38%
21
49
✗
FAU −5.5
–
–
Final
#20Iowa@#17Minnesota
40%
60%
13
10
✗
MINN −3.8
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Temple
89%
11%
23
3
✓
CIN −20.0
–
–
Final
FIU@UTEP
18%
82%
6
40
✓
UTEP −13.9
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@Auburn
40%
60%
17
41
✓
AUB −3.6
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Texas State
42%
58%
13
16
✓
TXST −2.9
–
–
Final
Stanford@California
43%
57%
20
27
✓
CAL −2.4
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@North CarolinaUpset
12%
88%
21
17
✗
UNC −18.6
–
–
Final
Marshall@Georgia Southern
59%
41%
23
10
✓
MRSH −4.2
–
–

Prime time 9 games

Final
#21Ole Miss@ArkansasUpset
48%
52%
27
42
✓
ARK −0.1
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Missouri
5.2%
95%
14
45
✓
MIZ −25.7
–
–
Final
#23Oklahoma State@OklahomaUpset
45%
55%
13
28
✓
OU −1.4
–
–
Final
#14USC@#19UCLA
52%
48%
48
45
✓
USC −1.3
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Wake Forest
33%
67%
35
45
✓
WAKE −6.4
–
–
Final
Colorado@#25Washington
4.8%
95%
7
54
✓
WASH −26.4
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Air Force
4.8%
95%
12
24
✓
AF −26.3
–
–
Final
UAB@#12LSU
15%
85%
10
41
✓
LSU −16.4
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Utah State
61%
39%
31
35
✗
SJSU −4.9
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
#7Utah@#15Oregon
52%
48%
17
20
✗
UTAH −1.5
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Nevada
82%
18%
41
14
✓
FRES −15.1
–
–
Final
UNLV@Hawaii
67%
33%
25
31
✗
UNLV −7.5
–
–

Sun, Nov 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
#5Tennessee@South CarolinaUpset
85%
15%
38
63
✗
TENN −16.8
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@Iowa State
38%
62%
14
10
✗
ISU −4.4
–
–
Final
Boise State@Wyoming
79%
21%
20
17
✓
BOIS −13.6
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 19 · 12:00 PM ET Austin Peay at #3 Alabama Alabama −61.7 >99%
Sat, Nov 19 · 12:00 PM ET East Tennessee State at #18 Mississippi State Mississippi State −35.0 99%
Sat, Nov 19 · 2:00 PM ET North Alabama at Memphis Memphis −25.8 95%
Sat, Nov 19 · 3:30 PM ET Utah Tech at BYU BYU −24.4 94%