Week 5 slate, 2022

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 63 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

No games match.

Fri, Sep 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final

Tulane@Houston

44%
56%

27
24

✗

HOU −2.6

–

–

Final

UTSA@Middle Tennessee

59%
41%

45
30

✓

UTSA −3.8

–

–

Late night 2 games

Final

#17Washington@#23UCLA

52%
48%

32
40

✗

WASH −0.9

–

–

Final

New Mexico@UNLV

23%
77%

20
31

✓

UNLV −12.2

–

–

Time TBD 1 game

Final

Utah State@BYU

9.4%
91%

26
38

✓

BYU −21.9

–

–

Sat, Oct 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 15 games

Final

Kentucky@#22Ole Miss

44%
56%

19
22

✓

MISS −2.6

–

–

Final

Texas Tech@Kansas State

35%
65%

28
37

✓

KSU −6.3

–

–

Final

#7Oklahoma@#25TCU

60%
40%

24
55

✗

OU −4.2

–

–

Final

Georgia State@ArmyUpset

24%
76%

31
14

✗

ARMY −11.6

–

–

Final

Illinois@Wisconsin

36%
64%

34
10

✗

WIS −6.1

–

–

Final

#4Michigan@Iowa

72%
28%

27
14

✓

MICH −9.8

–

–

Final

Purdue@#6MinnesotaUpset

24%
76%

20
10

✗

MINN −11.9

–

–

Final

Louisville@Boston College

74%
26%

33
34

✗

LOU −10.5

–

–

Final

Navy@Air Force

11%
89%

10
13

✓

AF −20.8

–

–

Final

Temple@Memphis

17%
84%

3
24

✓

MEM −16.3

–

–

Final

Texas State@James Madison

17%
83%

13
40

✓

JMU −15.8

–

–

Final

Oregon State@#10Utah

29%
71%

16
42

✓

UTAH −9.5

–

–

Final

UMass@Eastern Michigan

13%
87%

13
20

✓

EMU −18.6

–

–

Final

Northern Illinois@Ball State

62%
38%

38
44

✗

NIU −4.9

–

–

Final

East CarolinavsUSF

81%
19%

48
28

✓

ECU −14.6

–

–

Afternoon 19 games

Final

#3Alabama@#15Arkansas

78%
22%

49
26

✓

ALA −12.5

–

–

Final

#12Oklahoma State@Baylor

60%
40%

36
25

✓

OKST −4.2

–

–

Final

Iowa State@Kansas

56%
44%

11
14

✗

ISU −2.6

–

–

Final

Fresno State@UConnUpset

91%
9.4%

14
19

✗

FRES −21.8

–

–

Final

Michigan State@Maryland

42%
58%

13
27

✓

MD −3.3

–

–

Final

Rutgers@#1Ohio State

1.5%
98%

10
49

✓

OSU −36.0

–

–

Final

Northwestern@#5Penn State

3.3%
97%

7
17

✓

PSU −30.5

–

–

Final

Wake Forest@#21Florida StateUpset

36%
64%

31
21

✗

FSU −6.3

–

–

Final

Virginia Tech@North Carolina

25%
75%

10
41

✓

UNC −11.5

–

–

Final

Central Michigan@Toledo

43%
57%

17
38

✓

TOL −2.9

–

–

Final

Bowling Green@Akron

66%
34%

31
28

✓

BGSU −6.9

–

–

Final

Miami (OH)@Buffalo

61%
39%

20
24

✗

M-OH −4.3

–

–

Final

Ohio@Kent State

26%
74%

24
31

✓

KENT −10.5

–

–

Final

#14Texas A&M@#24Mississippi State

55%
45%

24
42

✗

TA&M −1.8

–

–

Final

Florida Atlantic@North Texas

65%
35%

28
45

✗

FAU −6.2

–

–

Final

South Alabama@Louisiana

58%
42%

20
17

✓

USA −3.2

–

–

Final

California@Washington State

51%
49%

9
28

✗

CAL −0.5

–

–

Final

Liberty@Old Dominion

51%
49%

38
24

✓

LIB −0.4

–

–

Final

UTEP@Charlotte

59%
41%

41
35

✓

UTEP −3.6

–

–

Prime time 13 games

Final

#19LSU@Auburn

72%
28%

21
17

✓

LSU −9.4

–

–

Final

#18Cincinnati@Tulsa

79%
21%

31
21

✓

CIN −13.2

–

–

Final

Georgia Southern@Coastal Carolina

30%
70%

30
34

✓

CCU −9.0

–

–

Final

Louisiana-Monroe@Arkansas State

39%
61%

28
45

✓

ARST −4.6

–

–

Final

Troy@Western Kentucky

34%
66%

34
27

✗

WKU −7.0

–

–

Final

#2Georgia@Missouri

98%
2.1%

26
22

✓

UGA −33.6

–

–

Final

West Virginia@#8Texas

17%
83%

20
38

✓

TEX −15.8

–

–

Final

Indiana@Nebraska

44%
56%

21
35

✓

NEB −2.7

–

–

Final

#20NC State@#11Clemson

37%
63%

20
30

✓

CLEM −5.5

–

–

Final

Virginia@Duke

55%
45%

17
38

✗

UVA −2.1

–

–

Final

San Jose State@Wyoming

53%
47%

33
16

✓

SJSU −1.3

–

–

Final

UAB@RiceUpset

76%
24%

24
28

✗

UAB −11.3

–

–

Final

Colorado@Arizona

36%
64%

20
43

✓

ARIZ −5.9

–

–

Late night 2 games

Final

Arizona State@#13USC

12%
88%

25
42

✓

USC −19.9

–

–

Final

Stanford@Oregon

27%
73%

27
45

✓

ORE −10.1

–

–

Time TBD 1 game

Final

San Diego State@Boise State

32%
68%

13
35

✓

BOIS −7.9

–

–

Sun, Oct 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final

Georgia Tech@PittsburghUpset

13%
87%

26
21

✗

PITT −19.0

–

–

Final

FIU@New Mexico StateUpset

24%
76%

21
7

✗

NMSU −11.7

–

–

Against FCS opponents

When	Game	Model	Win
Sun, Oct 2 · 12:00 PM ET	Eastern Washington at Florida	Florida −41.5	99%
Thu, Sep 29 · 7:00 PM ET	South Carolina State at South Carolina	South Carolina −42.9	>99%
Sat, Oct 1 · 5:00 PM ET	Wagner at Syracuse	Syracuse −55.3	>99%
Sat, Oct 1 · 6:00 PM ET	New Hampshire at Western Michigan	Western Michigan −16.0	83%
Sat, Oct 1 · 3:30 PM ET	The Citadel at Appalachian State	Appalachian State −38.0	99%
Sat, Oct 1 · 3:30 PM ET	Gardner-Webb at Marshall	Marshall −29.8	96%