Week 4 slate, 2022

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 66 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

No games match.

Thu, Sep 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final

West Virginia@Virginia Tech

47%
53%

33
10

✗

VT −1.5

–

–

Final

Coastal Carolina@Georgia State

55%
45%

41
24

✓

CCU −2.1

–

–

Fri, Sep 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final

Virginia@Syracuse

23%
77%

20
22

✓

SYR −12.3

–

–

Final

Boise State@UTEPUpset

89%
11%

10
27

✗

BOIS −19.9

–

–

Sat, Sep 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 13 games

Final

Missouri@Auburn

29%
72%

14
17

✓

AUB −9.5

–

–

Final

Kent State@#1Georgia

0.2%
>99%

22
39

✓

UGA −48.8

–

–

Final

Bowling Green@Mississippi State

4.3%
96%

14
45

✓

MSST −28.6

–

–

Final

TCU@SMU

53%
47%

42
34

✓

TCU −1.2

–

–

Final

Duke@Kansas

29%
71%

27
35

✓

KU −9.1

–

–

Final

Baylor@Iowa State

43%
57%

31
24

✗

ISU −3.1

–

–

Final

Maryland@#4Michigan

16%
84%

27
34

✓

MICH −16.7

–

–

Final

Central Michigan@#5Penn State

3.5%
96%

14
33

✓

PSU −30.1

–

–

Final

USF@Louisville

15%
85%

3
41

✓

LOU −17.5

–

–

Final

#9Clemson@Wake Forest

63%
37%

51
45

✓

CLEM −5.2

–

–

Final

Buffalo@Eastern Michigan

33%
67%

50
31

✗

EMU −7.5

–

–

Final

UCLA@Colorado

85%
15%

45
17

✓

UCLA −17.4

–

–

Final

UMass@Temple

14%
86%

0
28

✓

TEM −18.3

–

–

Afternoon 19 games

Final

Florida@#8Tennessee

21%
79%

33
38

✓

TENN −13.3

–

–

Final

#7Texas@Texas TechUpset

79%
21%

34
37

✗

TEX −13.1

–

–

Final

#16Notre Dame@North Carolina

59%
41%

45
32

✓

ND −3.8

–

–

Final

#14Minnesota@#22Michigan State

51%
49%

34
7

✓

MINN −0.4

–

–

Final

Indiana@#18Cincinnati

15%
85%

24
45

✓

CIN −17.0

–

–

Final

James Madison@Appalachian StateUpset

17%
84%

32
28

✗

APP −16.2

–

–

Final

Toledo@San Diego State

60%
40%

14
17

✗

TOL −4.2

–

–

Final

FIU@Western Kentucky

2.6%
97%

0
73

✓

WKU −32.3

–

–

Final

Middle Tennessee@Miami (FL)Upset

10%
90%

45
31

✗

MIA −21.1

–

–

Final

North Texas@Memphis

20%
80%

34
44

✓

MEM −14.1

–

–

Final

Tulsa@#24Ole Miss

17%
83%

27
35

✓

MISS −15.8

–

–

Final

#25Oregon@Washington State

68%
32%

44
41

✓

ORE −7.7

–

–

Final

Georgia Tech@UCF

13%
87%

10
27

✓

UCF −18.7

–

–

Final

Arizona@California

31%
70%

31
49

✓

CAL −8.6

–

–

Final

Akron@Liberty

7.7%
92%

12
21

✓

LIB −23.7

–

–

Final

Navy@East CarolinaUpset

11%
89%

23
20

✗

ECU −20.5

–

–

Final

Ball State@Georgia Southern

29%
71%

23
34

✓

GASO −9.2

–

–

Final

Arkansas State@Old Dominion

32%
68%

26
29

✓

ODU −8.0

–

–

Final

Rice@Houston

16%
84%

27
34

✓

HOU −16.9

–

–

Prime time 15 games

Final

#15Arkansasvs#12Texas A&M

48%
52%

21
23

✓

TA&M −0.9

–

–

Final

Northern Illinois@#21Kentucky

6.2%
94%

23
31

✓

UK −25.6

–

–

Final

Iowa@Rutgers

67%
33%

27
10

✓

IOWA −7.0

–

–

Final

Southern Miss@TulaneUpset

17%
83%

27
24

✗

TULN −16.2

–

–

Final

UNLV@Utah State

63%
37%

34
24

✓

UNLV −5.5

–

–

Final

Marshall@Troy

60%
40%

7
16

✗

MRSH −4.3

–

–

Final

Louisiana Tech@South Alabama

18%
82%

14
38

✓

USA −15.3

–

–

Final

Vanderbilt@#3Alabama

2.0%
98%

3
55

✓

ALA −34.2

–

–

Final

New Mexico@#20LSU

3.7%
96%

0
38

✓

LSU −29.7

–

–

Final

UConn@#19NC State

1.0%
99%

10
41

✓

NCSU −38.8

–

–

Final

Miami (OH)@Northwestern

40%
60%

17
14

✗

NU −4.1

–

–

Final

#23Wisconsin@#2Ohio State

11%
89%

21
52

✓

OSU −20.4

–

–

Final

Charlotte@South Carolina

4.8%
95%

20
56

✓

SC −27.6

–

–

Final

Florida Atlantic@Purdue

14%
86%

26
28

✓

PUR −17.7

–

–

Final

#10USC@Oregon State

59%
41%

17
14

✓

USC −3.8

–

–

Late night 4 games

Final

Wyoming@BYU

15%
86%

24
38

✓

BYU −17.7

–

–

Final

#13Utah@Arizona State

80%
20%

34
13

✓

UTAH −13.6

–

–

Final

Stanford@#17Washington

23%
77%

22
40

✓

WASH −12.5

–

–

Final

Western Michigan@San Jose State

50%
50%

6
34

✗

WMU −0.1

–

–

Time TBD 1 game

Final

Nevada@Air Force

12%
88%

20
48

✓

AF −19.5

–

–

Sun, Sep 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 4 games

Final

Kansas State@#6OklahomaUpset

19%
80%

41
34

✗

OU −14.3

–

–

Final

Hawaii@New Mexico State

64%
36%

26
45

✗

HAW −5.8

–

–

Final

Boston College@Florida State

19%
82%

14
44

✓

FSU −15.0

–

–

Final

Louisiana@Louisiana-Monroe

74%
26%

17
21

✗

UL −10.5

–

–

Against FCS opponents

When	Game	Model	Win
Sat, Sep 24 · 12:00 PM ET	Rhode Island at Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh −37.3	99%
Sat, Sep 24 · 4:00 PM ET	Sacramento State at Colorado State	Sacramento State −3.5	59%
Sat, Sep 24 · 2:00 PM ET	Fordham at Ohio	Ohio −15.4	82%
Sat, Sep 24 · 7:00 PM ET	Houston Christian at Texas State	Texas State −22.5	91%
Thu, Sep 22 · 8:30 PM ET	Chattanooga at Illinois	Illinois −40.9	99%
Sat, Sep 24 · 3:30 PM ET	Texas Southern at UTSA	UTSA −42.3	>99%