The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 15 slate, 2014

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 14 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 69

Wilder than 69% of weeks in the archive.

3 upsets against 3.8 expected

  • Biggest shockOklahoma State over Oklahoma11% chance · won 38-35
  • Runner-upSMU over UConn23% chance · won 27-20
  • Runner-upUCF over East Carolina40% chance · won 32-30

Upsets

Thu, Dec 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
UCF@East Carolina
40%
60%
32
30
✗
ECU −3.6
–
–

Fri, Dec 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#20Arizonavs#1Oregon
24%
76%
13
51
✓
ORE −11.0
–
–

Sat, Dec 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 4 games

Final
Houston@Cincinnati
36%
64%
31
38
✓
CIN −5.4
–
–
Final
SMU@UConnUpset
23%
77%
27
20
✗
CONN −11.4
–
–
Final
Iowa State@#6TCU
4.5%
96%
3
55
✓
TCU −26.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@#18Marshall
20%
80%
23
26
✓
MRSH −13.1
–
–

Afternoon 2 games

Final
Oklahoma State@#7OklahomaUpset
12%
88%
38
35
✗
OU −18.8
–
–
Final
#2AlabamavsMissouri
74%
26%
42
13
✓
ALA −10.8
–
–

Prime time 4 games

Final
Temple@Tulane
69%
31%
10
3
✓
TEM −8.4
–
–
Final
#13Kansas State@#3Baylor
30%
70%
27
38
✓
BAY −7.9
–
–
Final
#14Florida Statevs#19Georgia Tech
54%
46%
37
35
✓
FSU −2.3
–
–
Final
#12Wisconsinvs#5Ohio State
39%
61%
0
59
✓
OSU −4.1
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Fresno State@#25Boise State
11%
89%
14
28
✓
BOIS −18.9
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Northern IllinoisvsBowling Green
61%
39%
51
17
✓
NIU −5.0
–
–