Week 5 slate, 2014

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 54 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

No games match.

Thu, Sep 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final

Texas Tech@#13Oklahoma State

8.6%
91%

35
45

✓

OKST −22.7

–

–

Final

Appalachian State@Georgia Southern

12%
88%

14
34

✓

GASO −19.4

–

–

Late night 1 game

Final

#18UCLA@#19Arizona State

41%
59%

62
27

✗

ASU −3.9

–

–

Sat, Sep 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 13 games

Final

TCU@SMU

86%
14%

56
0

✓

TCU −18.2

–

–

Final

USF@#21Wisconsin

2.5%
98%

10
27

✓

WIS −32.5

–

–

Final

Tulane@Rutgers

18%
82%

6
31

✓

RUTG −15.1

–

–

Final

UTEP@Kansas State

10%
90%

28
58

✓

KSU −20.9

–

–

Final

Iowa@Purdue

71%
29%

24
10

✓

IOWA −9.0

–

–

Final

Wyoming@#10Michigan State

3.3%
97%

14
56

✓

MSU −30.6

–

–

Final

Northwestern@Penn StateUpset

19%
81%

29
6

✗

PSU −14.7

–

–

Final

Tennessee@#8Georgia

22%
78%

32
35

✓

UGA −12.7

–

–

Final

Vanderbilt@Kentucky

20%
80%

7
17

✓

UK −14.0

–

–

Final

Colorado State@Boston College

42%
58%

24
21

✗

BC −3.6

–

–

Final

Western Michigan@Virginia Tech

9.5%
90%

17
35

✓

VT −21.9

–

–

Final

Akron@PittsburghUpset

16%
84%

21
10

✗

PITT −16.9

–

–

Final

Maryland@Indiana

57%
43%

37
15

✓

MD −2.6

–

–

Afternoon 17 games

Final

Bowling Green@UMass

76%
24%

47
42

✓

BGSU −11.5

–

–

Final

#11Florida State@NC State

76%
24%

56
41

✓

FSU −11.4

–

–

Final

Kent State@Virginia

18%
82%

13
45

✓

UVA −15.3

–

–

Final

Wake Forest@Louisville

8.1%
92%

10
20

✓

LOU −23.3

–

–

Final

Minnesota@Michigan

32%
68%

30
14

✗

MICH −8.0

–

–

Final

FIU@UABUpset

10%
90%

34
20

✗

UAB −21.1

–

–

Final

Western Kentucky@Navy

34%
66%

36
27

✗

NAVY −6.9

–

–

Final

Miami (OH)@Buffalo

23%
77%

27
35

✓

BUF −12.4

–

–

Final

Arkansasvs#7Texas A&M

28%
72%

28
35

✓

TA&M −9.6

–

–

Final

Temple@UConn

69%
31%

36
10

✓

TEM −8.0

–

–

Final

Louisiana Tech@#2Auburn

3.6%
96%

17
45

✓

AUB −29.9

–

–

Final

Colorado@California

20%
80%

56
59

✓

CAL −13.9

–

–

Final

Texas@Kansas

76%
24%

23
0

✓

TEX −11.8

–

–

Final

#12Stanford@Washington

63%
37%

20
13

✓

STAN −5.5

–

–

Final

UTSA@Florida Atlantic

53%
47%

37
41

✗

UTSA −1.2

–

–

Final

South Alabama@Idaho

88%
12%

34
10

✓

USA −19.5

–

–

Final

Cincinnati@#15Ohio State

18%
82%

28
50

✓

OSU −15.6

–

–

Prime time 11 games

Final

North Carolina@Clemson

34%
66%

35
50

✓

CLEM −7.0

–

–

Final

Rice@Southern Miss

64%
36%

41
23

✓

RICE −5.7

–

–

Final

Central Michigan@Toledo

26%
74%

28
42

✓

TOL −11.0

–

–

Final

Boise State@Air ForceUpset

78%
22%

14
28

✗

BOIS −12.9

–

–

Final

Missouri@#24South CarolinaUpset

38%
62%

21
20

✗

SC −5.1

–

–

Final

Troy@Louisiana-Monroe

24%
76%

20
22

✓

ULM −12.1

–

–

Final

Memphis@#6Ole Miss

13%
87%

3
24

✓

MISS −18.6

–

–

Final

Duke@Miami (FL)

52%
48%

10
22

✗

DUKE −0.9

–

–

Final

New Mexico State@#17LSU

1.7%
98%

7
63

✓

LSU −35.3

–

–

Final

#3Baylor@Iowa State

82%
18%

49
28

✓

BAY −15.1

–

–

Final

Illinois@#23Nebraska

8.7%
91%

14
45

✓

NEB −22.6

–

–

Late night 2 games

Final

Nevada@San Jose State

45%
55%

21
10

✗

SJSU −2.2

–

–

Final

Oregon State@#20USC

22%
78%

10
35

✓

USC −13.0

–

–

Time TBD 2 games

Final

Middle Tennessee@Old Dominion

59%
41%

41
28

✓

MTSU −3.6

–

–

Final

Fresno State@New Mexico

48%
52%

35
24

✗

UNM −0.9

–

–

Sun, Sep 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 4 games

Final

Texas State@Tulsa

54%
46%

37
34

✓

TXST −1.8

–

–

Final

#16Notre DamevsSyracuse

79%
21%

31
15

✓

ND −13.4

–

–

Final

UNLV@San Diego State

15%
86%

17
34

✓

SDSU −17.6

–

–

Final

Washington State@#25UtahUpset

21%
79%

28
27

✗

UTAH −13.7

–

–

Against FCS opponents

When	Game	Model	Win
Sat, Sep 27 · 2:00 PM ET	Eastern Illinois at Ohio	Ohio −22.1	91%
Sat, Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET	Army at Yale	Army −9.8	72%