The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 3 slate, 2014

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 58 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 73

Wilder than 73% of weeks in the archive.

12 upsets against 12.4 expected

  • Biggest shockIndiana State over Ball State1.0% chance · won 27-20
  • Runner-upAbilene Christian over Troy8.6% chance · won 38-35
  • Runner-upBoston College over USC20% chance · won 37-31

Upsets

Thu, Sep 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Houston@#7BYU
10.0%
90%
25
33
✓
BYU −19.4
–
–

Fri, Sep 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Toledo@Cincinnati
31%
69%
34
58
✓
CIN −7.3
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Louisiana Tech@North Texas
32%
68%
42
21
✗
UNT −6.8
–
–

Sat, Sep 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 14 games

Final
UCF@#23Missouri
30%
70%
10
38
✓
MIZ −7.5
–
–
Final
Boise State@UConn
67%
33%
38
21
✓
BOIS −7.2
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Virginia Tech
31%
69%
28
21
✗
VT −7.2
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@Georgia Tech
38%
62%
38
42
✓
GT −4.3
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@FIU
93%
6.7%
42
25
✓
PITT −23.7
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Central Michigan
40%
60%
40
3
✗
CMU −3.5
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Maryland
28%
72%
40
37
✗
MD −8.5
–
–
Final
Indiana@Bowling Green
38%
62%
42
45
✓
BGSU −4.1
–
–
Final
Kent State@#20Ohio State
8.9%
91%
0
66
✓
OSU −20.5
–
–
Final
Ohio@Marshall
11%
89%
14
44
✓
MRSH −18.8
–
–
Final
UMass@Vanderbilt
13%
87%
31
34
✓
VAN −17.1
–
–
Final
#25Louisville@VirginiaUpset
65%
35%
21
23
✗
LOU −6.3
–
–
Final
Air Force@Georgia State
56%
44%
48
38
✓
AF −2.8
–
–
Final
Wyoming@#2Oregon
1.4%
99%
14
48
✓
ORE −33.9
–
–

Afternoon 15 games

Final
NC State@USF
60%
40%
49
17
✓
NCSU −4.3
–
–
Final
Kansas@Duke
10%
90%
3
41
✓
DUKE −19.4
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Miami (FL)
24%
76%
20
41
✓
MIA −10.3
–
–
Final
Arkansas@Texas Tech
40%
60%
49
28
✗
TTU −3.4
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Iowa
27%
73%
20
17
✗
IOWA −8.8
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Michigan
2.8%
97%
10
34
✓
MICH −29.5
–
–
Final
#12Georgia@South CarolinaUpset
52%
48%
35
38
✗
UGA −1.4
–
–
Final
Minnesota@TCU
38%
62%
7
30
✓
TCU −4.1
–
–
Final
Illinois@Washington
23%
77%
19
44
✓
WASH −11.1
–
–
Final
Louisiana@#10Ole Miss
6.2%
94%
15
56
✓
MISS −23.5
–
–
Final
#18Mississippi State@South Alabama
66%
34%
35
3
✓
MSST −6.7
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Idaho
84%
16%
45
33
✓
WMU −15.6
–
–
Final
Army@#14Stanford
9.1%
91%
0
35
✓
STAN −20.3
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Old Dominion
21%
79%
3
17
✓
ODU −11.9
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@#3Alabama
0.4%
>99%
12
52
✓
ALA −42.0
–
–

Prime time 10 games

Final
Tulsa@Florida Atlantic
37%
63%
21
50
✓
FAU −4.7
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Utah State
19%
81%
24
36
✓
USU −13.1
–
–
Final
UTSA@#19Oklahoma State
21%
79%
13
43
✓
OKST −12.0
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@Middle Tennessee
53%
47%
47
50
✗
WKU −1.7
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@UNLV
82%
18%
48
34
✓
NIU −14.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@#17LSU
4.7%
95%
0
31
✓
LSU −25.8
–
–
Final
Purduevs#6Notre Dame
5.4%
95%
14
30
✓
ND −24.7
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Florida
18%
82%
30
36
✓
FLA −13.6
–
–
Final
#15UCLAvsTexas
66%
34%
20
17
✓
UCLA −6.7
–
–
Final
Rice@#13Texas A&M
8.4%
92%
10
38
✓
TA&M −21.0
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
#16Arizona State@Colorado
86%
14%
38
24
✓
ASU −17.1
–
–
Final
Nebraska@Fresno State
68%
32%
55
19
✓
NEB −7.7
–
–
Final
Nevada@#22Arizona
14%
86%
28
35
✓
ARIZ −16.0
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#5Baylor@Buffalo
85%
15%
63
21
✓
BAY −16.6
–
–

Sun, Sep 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 5 games

Final
#8USC@Boston CollegeUpset
80%
20%
31
37
✗
USC −13.5
–
–
Final
#21Tennessee@#4Oklahoma
20%
80%
10
34
✓
OU −12.8
–
–
Final
Penn State@Rutgers
64%
36%
13
10
✓
PSU −6.1
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@UTEP
22%
78%
24
42
✓
UTEP −11.6
–
–
Final
Navy@Texas State
55%
45%
35
21
✓
NAVY −2.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sun, Sep 14 · TBD SE Louisiana at Tulane Tulane −33.4 98%
Sat, Sep 13 · 3:30 PM ET Alabama A&M vs UAB UAB −26.1 96%
Sat, Sep 13 · 3:00 PM ET Indiana State at Ball State Ball State −35.9 99%
Sat, Sep 13 · 3:00 PM ET UC Davis vs Colorado State Colorado State −40.5 >99%
Sun, Sep 14 · 12:00 AM ET Northern Iowa vs Hawaii Hawaii −11.1 77%
Sun, Sep 14 · TBD Portland State at Washington State Washington State −41.1 >99%
Sat, Sep 13 · 7:00 PM ET Abilene Christian at Troy Troy −20.8 91%