The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 8 slate, 2014

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 53 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 41

Wilder than 41% of weeks in the archive.

17 upsets against 15.2 expected

  • Biggest shockNevada over BYU19% chance · won 42-35
  • Runner-upWest Virginia over Baylor20% chance · won 41-27
  • Runner-upSouthern Miss over North Texas24% chance · won 30-20

Upsets

Wed, Oct 15

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Louisiana@Texas State
42%
58%
34
10
✗
TXST −2.6
–
–

Thu, Oct 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Virginia Tech@Pittsburgh
54%
46%
16
21
✗
VT −2.1
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
#25Utah@Oregon State
62%
38%
29
23
✓
UTAH −5.3
–
–

Fri, Oct 17

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Temple@Houston
43%
57%
10
31
✓
HOU −2.2
–
–

Sat, Oct 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 12 games

Final
Tulane@UCF
9.9%
90%
13
20
✓
UCF −20.2
–
–
Final
USF@Tulsa
41%
59%
38
30
✗
TLSA −3.2
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Wake Forest
63%
37%
30
7
✓
SYR −5.6
–
–
Final
#2Baylor@West VirginiaUpset
80%
20%
27
41
✗
BAY −13.9
–
–
Final
#18Kansas State@#7Oklahoma
28%
72%
31
30
✗
OU −8.7
–
–
Final
Iowa@Maryland
37%
63%
31
38
✓
MD −4.8
–
–
Final
Purdue@Minnesota
15%
85%
38
39
✓
MINN −16.0
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@Florida Atlantic
65%
35%
38
45
✗
WKU −6.5
–
–
Final
UTSA@Louisiana Tech
35%
65%
20
27
✓
LT −5.5
–
–
Final
Virginia@Duke
28%
72%
13
20
✓
DUKE −9.1
–
–
Final
Akron@Ohio
67%
33%
20
23
✗
AKR −7.5
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Bowling Green
31%
69%
26
14
✗
BGSU −7.3
–
–

Afternoon 21 games

Final
Eastern Michigan@UMass
29%
71%
14
36
✓
MASS −8.2
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@Troy
46%
54%
53
14
✗
TROY −1.0
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@SMU
78%
22%
41
3
✓
CIN −12.5
–
–
Final
#23Clemson@Boston College
65%
35%
17
13
✓
CLEM −6.7
–
–
Final
NC State@#24Louisville
12%
88%
18
30
✓
LOU −18.6
–
–
Final
Kansas@Texas Tech
28%
72%
21
34
✓
TTU −8.7
–
–
Final
#11Michigan State@Indiana
82%
18%
56
17
✓
MSU −15.3
–
–
Final
Rutgers@#10Ohio State
10%
90%
17
56
✓
OSU −19.8
–
–
Final
UAB@Middle Tennessee
45%
55%
22
34
✓
MTSU −1.6
–
–
Final
Army@Kent State
52%
48%
17
39
✗
ARMY −1.3
–
–
Final
Ball State@Central Michigan
32%
68%
32
29
✗
CMU −7.0
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Air Force
28%
72%
31
35
✓
AF −8.6
–
–
Final
#13UCLA@California
78%
22%
36
34
✓
UCLA −12.8
–
–
Final
#16Texas A&M@#5Alabama
29%
71%
0
59
✓
ALA −8.2
–
–
Final
#20Oklahoma State@#19TCU
40%
60%
9
42
✓
TCU −3.3
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Wyoming
64%
36%
27
20
✓
SJSU −6.0
–
–
Final
#6Georgia@Arkansas
68%
32%
45
32
✓
UGA −8.1
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Northern Illinois
15%
86%
41
51
✓
NIU −16.4
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Idaho
63%
37%
17
29
✗
NMSU −5.6
–
–
Final
#15Marshall@FIU
93%
6.7%
45
13
✓
MRSH −24.4
–
–
Final
Colorado@#17USC
6.8%
93%
28
56
✓
USC −23.4
–
–

Prime time 8 games

Final
Georgia Tech@North Carolina
54%
46%
43
48
✗
GT −2.2
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@North TexasUpset
24%
76%
30
20
✗
UNT −10.7
–
–
Final
Utah State@Colorado State
41%
59%
13
16
✓
CSU −3.0
–
–
Final
Tennessee@#3Ole Miss
18%
82%
3
34
✓
MISS −14.5
–
–
Final
Missouri@Florida
41%
59%
42
13
✗
FLA −3.1
–
–
Final
#21Nebraska@Northwestern
68%
32%
38
17
✓
NEB −7.8
–
–
Final
Kentucky@#22LSU
21%
79%
3
41
✓
LSU −12.4
–
–
Final
Georgia State@South Alabama
9.1%
91%
27
30
✓
USA −20.9
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
Nevada@BYUUpset
19%
81%
42
35
✗
BYU −13.4
–
–
Final
Hawaii@San Diego State
29%
71%
10
20
✓
SDSU −8.5
–
–
Final
#12Stanford@Arizona StateUpset
56%
44%
10
26
✗
STAN −3.0
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Fresno State@Boise State
19%
81%
27
37
✓
BOIS −13.7
–
–

Sun, Oct 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
#14Notre Dame@#9Florida State
35%
65%
27
31
✓
FSU −5.8
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Texas
29%
71%
45
48
✓
TEX −8.4
–
–
Final
Washington@#8Oregon
18%
82%
20
45
✓
ORE −13.9
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 18 · 12:00 PM ET Furman at South Carolina South Carolina −39.7 99%