The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 14 slate, 2014

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 61 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 43

Wilder than 43% of weeks in the archive.

13 upsets against 16.8 expected

  • Biggest shockWestern Kentucky over Marshall12% chance · won 67-66
  • Runner-upIllinois over Northwestern22% chance · won 47-33
  • Runner-upRutgers over Maryland24% chance · won 41-38

Upsets

Wed, Nov 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Ohio@Miami (OH)
53%
47%
24
21
✓
OHIO −1.6
–
–

Thu, Nov 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
#10TCU@Texas
63%
37%
48
10
✓
TCU −5.8
–
–
Final
#21LSU@Texas A&M
48%
52%
23
17
✗
TA&M −0.1
–
–

Fri, Nov 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 10 games

Final
Northern Illinois@Western Michigan
40%
60%
31
21
✗
WMU −3.6
–
–
Final
UCF@USF
83%
17%
16
0
✓
UCF −15.4
–
–
Final
Houston@SMU
90%
9.7%
35
9
✓
HOU −21.2
–
–
Final
#24Nebraska@Iowa
57%
43%
37
34
✓
NEB −3.4
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@#15MarshallUpset
12%
88%
67
66
✗
MRSH −18.7
–
–
Final
Akron@Kent State
53%
47%
24
27
✗
AKR −1.6
–
–
Final
Ball State@Bowling Green
27%
73%
41
24
✗
BGSU −9.3
–
–
Final
Buffalo@UMass
52%
48%
41
21
✓
BUF −1.5
–
–
Final
Toledo@Eastern Michigan
89%
11%
52
16
✓
TOL −20.0
–
–
Final
#23Arkansas@MissouriUpset
45%
55%
14
21
✓
MIZ −1.4
–
–

Afternoon 4 games

Final
Navy@South Alabama
65%
35%
42
40
✓
NAVY −6.6
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Air Force
64%
36%
24
27
✗
CSU −6.2
–
–
Final
#18Arizona State@#19Arizona
43%
57%
35
42
✓
ARIZ −2.2
–
–
Final
#20Stanford@#12UCLA
31%
69%
31
10
✗
UCLA −7.5
–
–

Prime time 2 games

Final
Virginia@Virginia Tech
36%
64%
20
24
✓
VT −5.3
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Tulsa
86%
14%
49
32
✓
ECU −17.6
–
–

Sat, Nov 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 17 games

Final
Cincinnati@Temple
53%
47%
14
6
✓
CIN −1.6
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Clemson
38%
62%
17
35
✓
CLEM −4.2
–
–
Final
#22Georgia Tech@#6Georgia
26%
74%
30
24
✗
UGA −9.5
–
–
Final
Kentucky@#25Louisville
15%
85%
40
44
✓
LOU −16.4
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Iowa State
72%
28%
37
24
✓
WVU −9.7
–
–
Final
Illinois@NorthwesternUpset
22%
78%
47
33
✗
NU −12.0
–
–
Final
Purdue@Indiana
37%
63%
16
23
✓
IU −5.0
–
–
Final
Michigan@#4Ohio State
9.3%
91%
28
42
✓
OSU −20.8
–
–
Final
Old Dominion@Florida Atlantic
29%
71%
31
28
✗
FAU −8.3
–
–
Final
Rice@Louisiana Tech
34%
66%
31
76
✓
LT −6.1
–
–
Final
North Texas@UTSA
39%
61%
27
34
✓
UTSA −4.1
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Boston College
27%
73%
7
28
✓
BC −9.5
–
–
Final
NC State@North Carolina
25%
75%
35
7
✗
UNC −10.2
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Troy
72%
28%
42
23
✓
UL −9.6
–
–
Final
Utah@Colorado
74%
26%
38
34
✓
UTAH −10.7
–
–
Final
Idaho@Appalachian State
6.3%
94%
28
45
✓
APP −24.1
–
–
Final
Texas State@Georgia State
77%
23%
54
31
✓
TXST −12.3
–
–

Afternoon 16 games

Final
Wyoming@New Mexico
41%
59%
30
36
✓
UNM −3.2
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Arkansas State
7.0%
93%
35
68
✓
ARST −23.2
–
–
Final
Florida@#14Florida State
22%
78%
19
24
✓
FSU −11.6
–
–
Final
#2BaylorvsTexas Tech
96%
4.3%
48
46
✓
BAY −27.8
–
–
Final
Rutgers@MarylandUpset
24%
76%
41
38
✗
MD −10.8
–
–
Final
#5Michigan State@Penn State
79%
21%
34
10
✓
MSU −13.3
–
–
Final
Minnesota@#13Wisconsin
20%
80%
24
34
✓
WIS −12.7
–
–
Final
UAB@Southern Miss
66%
34%
45
24
✓
UAB −6.9
–
–
Final
San Jose State@San Diego State
30%
70%
7
38
✓
SDSU −7.9
–
–
Final
Notre Dame@#17USC
34%
66%
14
49
✓
USC −6.3
–
–
Final
#8Mississippi State@#11Ole Miss
42%
58%
17
31
✓
MISS −2.8
–
–
Final
UConn@Memphis
6.2%
94%
10
41
✓
MEM −24.2
–
–
Final
Kansas@#16Kansas State
4.1%
96%
13
51
✓
KSU −27.4
–
–
Final
Tennessee@Vanderbilt
86%
14%
24
17
✓
TENN −17.4
–
–
Final
BYU@California
53%
47%
42
35
✓
BYU −1.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Georgia Southern
12%
88%
16
22
✓
GASO −18.8
–
–

Prime time 2 games

Final
#9Auburn@#3Alabama
31%
69%
44
55
✓
ALA −7.5
–
–
Final
#1Oregon@Oregon State
91%
8.8%
47
19
✓
ORE −22.0
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
Utah State@Boise State
31%
70%
19
50
✓
BOIS −7.7
–
–
Final
Nevada@UNLV
79%
21%
49
27
✓
NEV −13.1
–
–
Final
Washington@Washington State
60%
40%
31
13
✓
WASH −4.7
–
–

Sun, Nov 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 4 games

Final
Wake Forest@Duke
7.7%
92%
21
41
✓
DUKE −22.4
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Miami (FL)Upset
24%
76%
35
23
✗
MIA −10.6
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@UTEP
43%
57%
21
24
✓
UTEP −2.2
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Fresno State
27%
73%
21
28
✓
FRES −9.2
–
–