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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 2 slate, 2014

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 74 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 1

Chaos 58

Wilder than 58% of weeks in the archive.

16 upsets against 13.9 expected

  • Biggest shockEastern Kentucky over Miami (OH)5.9% chance · won 17-10
  • Runner-upVirginia Tech over Ohio State13% chance · won 35-21
  • Runner-upLouisiana Tech over Louisiana14% chance · won 48-20

Upsets

Fri, Sep 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Pittsburgh@Boston College
54%
46%
30
20
✓
PITT −2.1
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Washington State@Nevada
56%
44%
13
24
✗
WSU −2.9
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#22Arizona@UTSA
50%
50%
26
23
✗
ARIZ −0.4
–
–

Sat, Sep 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 14 games

Final
SMU@North Texas
26%
74%
6
43
✓
UNT −9.4
–
–
Final
#11Oklahoma@Tulsa
79%
21%
52
7
✓
OU −12.8
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Iowa State
60%
40%
32
28
✓
KSU −4.4
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@Illinois
72%
28%
34
42
✗
WKU −9.5
–
–
Final
Akron@Penn State
19%
80%
3
21
✓
PSU −12.8
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Purdue
29%
71%
38
17
✗
PUR −8.2
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@#4Alabama
4.7%
95%
0
41
✓
ALA −25.7
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Army
38%
62%
39
47
✓
ARMY −4.1
–
–
Final
Missouri@Toledo
45%
55%
49
24
✗
TOL −1.3
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@#24Tennessee
12%
88%
19
34
✓
TENN −17.4
–
–
Final
Navy@Temple
36%
64%
31
24
✗
TEM −5.1
–
–
Final
UAB@#14Mississippi State
6.9%
93%
34
47
✓
MSST −22.6
–
–
Final
South Alabama@Kent State
38%
62%
23
13
✗
KENT −4.1
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Georgia State
39%
61%
34
31
✗
GAST −3.7
–
–

Afternoon 13 games

Final
Colorado@UMass
74%
26%
41
38
✓
COLO −10.5
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Utah
24%
76%
27
59
✓
UTAH −10.6
–
–
Final
Maryland@USF
86%
14%
24
17
✓
MD −17.5
–
–
Final
Ball State@Iowa
18%
82%
13
17
✓
IOWA −13.6
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Minnesota
28%
72%
24
35
✓
MINN −8.6
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Northwestern
45%
55%
23
15
✗
NU −1.3
–
–
Final
Ohio@Kentucky
33%
67%
3
20
✓
UK −6.4
–
–
Final
#6USC@#13Stanford
40%
60%
13
10
✗
STAN −3.5
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Tulane
46%
54%
38
21
✗
TULN −1.0
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Florida
3.8%
96%
0
65
✓
FLA −27.4
–
–
Final
#16Ole Miss@Vanderbilt
76%
24%
41
3
✓
MISS −11.2
–
–
Final
Old Dominion@NC State
16%
84%
34
46
✓
NCSU −15.0
–
–
Final
#3Michigan State@#7Oregon
41%
59%
27
46
✓
ORE −3.1
–
–

Prime time 8 games

Final
East Carolina@South Carolina
34%
66%
23
33
✓
SC −5.8
–
–
Final
Duke@Troy
75%
25%
34
17
✓
DUKE −11.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@LouisianaUpset
14%
86%
48
20
✗
UL −16.5
–
–
Final
#25Arizona State@New Mexico
76%
24%
58
23
✓
ASU −11.3
–
–
Final
San Jose State@#5Auburn
10%
90%
13
59
✓
AUB −19.1
–
–
Final
Idaho@Louisiana-Monroe
3.6%
96%
31
38
✓
ULM −27.8
–
–
Final
#20BYU@#21Texas
36%
64%
41
7
✗
TEX −5.2
–
–
Final
#17Michigan@#19Notre Dame
36%
64%
0
31
✓
ND −5.1
–
–

Late night 5 games

Final
Memphis@#10UCLA
11%
89%
35
42
✓
UCLA −18.5
–
–
Final
Air Force@Wyoming
40%
60%
13
17
✓
WYO −3.5
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Boise State
39%
61%
24
37
✓
BOIS −3.9
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Hawaii
59%
41%
38
30
✓
ORST −3.8
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@UTEP
50%
50%
30
26
✗
TTU −0.4
–
–

Sun, Sep 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
San Diego State@North Carolina
17%
83%
27
31
✓
UNC −14.5
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@#8Ohio StateUpset
13%
87%
35
21
✗
OSU −17.1
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 6 · 12:00 PM ET Stony Brook at UConn UConn −21.8 92%
Sun, Sep 7 · TBD Grambling at Houston Houston −45.4 >99%
Sat, Sep 6 · 12:30 PM ET South Carolina State at Clemson Clemson −40.9 >99%
Sat, Sep 6 · 7:30 PM ET The Citadel at #2 Florida State Florida State −56.9 >99%
Sat, Sep 6 · 7:00 PM ET Murray State at #18 Louisville Louisville −50.6 >99%
Sat, Sep 6 · 7:00 PM ET Florida A&M at Miami (FL) Miami (FL) −42.6 >99%
Sat, Sep 6 · 3:30 PM ET Richmond at Virginia Virginia −30.6 98%
Sat, Sep 6 · 6:30 PM ET Gardner-Webb at Wake Forest Wake Forest −34.6 99%
Sat, Sep 6 · 7:30 PM ET Towson at West Virginia West Virginia −31.0 98%
Sat, Sep 6 · 7:30 PM ET Northwestern State at #1 Baylor Baylor −59.5 >99%
Sat, Sep 6 · 3:30 PM ET Missouri State at #15 Oklahoma State Oklahoma State −22.7 93%
Sat, Sep 6 · 7:00 PM ET Southeast Missouri State at Kansas Kansas −36.0 99%
Sat, Sep 6 · 12:00 PM ET McNeese at #23 Nebraska Nebraska −35.1 99%
Sat, Sep 6 · 12:00 PM ET Howard vs Rutgers Rutgers −38.4 99%
Sat, Sep 6 · 12:00 PM ET Western Illinois at Wisconsin Wisconsin −46.7 >99%
Sat, Sep 6 · 6:00 PM ET Wagner at FIU FIU −10.7 77%
Sat, Sep 6 · 7:00 PM ET Rhode Island at Marshall Marshall −32.7 98%
Sat, Sep 6 · 7:00 PM ET Alcorn State at Southern Miss Southern Miss −19.1 90%
Sat, Sep 6 · 3:30 PM ET Eastern Kentucky at Miami (OH) Miami (OH) −24.0 94%
Sat, Sep 6 · 3:30 PM ET VMI at Bowling Green Bowling Green −44.4 >99%
Sat, Sep 6 · 10:00 PM ET Northern Colorado vs UNLV UNLV −30.5 98%
Sun, Sep 7 · TBD Idaho State at Utah State Utah State −47.0 >99%
Sat, Sep 6 · 3:05 PM ET Eastern Washington at Washington Washington −29.0 97%
Sat, Sep 6 · 3:00 PM ET Sacramento State at California California −13.8 82%
Sat, Sep 6 · 4:00 PM ET Nicholls at Arkansas Arkansas −40.6 >99%
Sat, Sep 6 · 7:30 PM ET Sam Houston at LSU LSU −19.0 90%
Sat, Sep 6 · 7:30 PM ET Lamar at #12 Texas A&M Texas A&M −48.4 >99%
Sat, Sep 6 · 6:00 PM ET Campbell at Appalachian State Appalachian State −16.8 87%
Sat, Sep 6 · 6:00 PM ET Savannah State at Georgia Southern Georgia Southern −48.2 >99%