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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 12 slate, 2014

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 50 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 56

Wilder than 56% of weeks in the archive.

17 upsets against 14.6 expected

  • Biggest shockNorthwestern over Notre Dame14% chance · won 43-40
  • Runner-upOregon State over Arizona State19% chance · won 35-27
  • Runner-upAppalachian State over Arkansas State23% chance · won 37-32

Upsets

Tue, Nov 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Akron@Buffalo
55%
45%
24
55
✗
AKR −2.4
–
–
Final
Toledo@Northern Illinois
40%
60%
24
27
✓
NIU −3.5
–
–

Wed, Nov 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Ball State@UMass
57%
43%
10
24
✗
BALL −3.2
–
–
Final
Kent State@Bowling Green
23%
77%
20
30
✓
BGSU −11.5
–
–

Thu, Nov 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Southern Miss@UTSA
24%
76%
10
12
✓
UTSA −10.9
–
–
Final
California@#15USC
14%
86%
30
38
✓
USC −16.7
–
–

Fri, Nov 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Tulsa@UCF
8.3%
92%
7
31
✓
UCF −21.7
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
East Carolina@Cincinnati
51%
49%
46
54
✗
ECU −0.8
–
–

Sat, Nov 15

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 12 games

Final
Temple@Penn State
35%
65%
13
30
✓
PSU −5.6
–
–
Final
Clemson@#25Georgia Tech
40%
60%
6
28
✓
GT −3.7
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Duke
30%
70%
17
16
✗
DUKE −7.7
–
–
Final
Iowa@Illinois
70%
30%
30
14
✓
IOWA −9.0
–
–
Final
#5Ohio State@Minnesota
77%
23%
31
24
✓
OSU −12.2
–
–
Final
Army@Western Kentucky
21%
79%
24
52
✓
WKU −12.4
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Florida
38%
62%
23
20
✗
FLA −4.3
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@North Carolina
44%
56%
35
40
✓
UNC −1.8
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Central Michigan
18%
82%
27
34
✓
CMU −14.2
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Western Michigan
6.0%
94%
7
51
✓
WMU −24.5
–
–
Final
Nevada@Air Force
53%
47%
38
45
✗
NEV −1.7
–
–
Final
Rice@#14Marshall
10%
90%
14
41
✓
MRSH −19.7
–
–

Afternoon 17 games

Final
Wake Forest@NC State
27%
73%
13
42
✓
NCSU −9.2
–
–
Final
#8TCU@Kansas
94%
5.9%
34
30
✓
TCU −25.4
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@Arkansas StateUpset
23%
77%
37
32
✗
ARST −11.3
–
–
Final
Memphis@Tulane
81%
19%
38
7
✓
MEM −14.2
–
–
Final
#9Oklahoma@Texas Tech
91%
8.9%
42
30
✓
OU −22.0
–
–
Final
Indiana@Rutgers
37%
63%
23
45
✓
RUTG −4.9
–
–
Final
#19Nebraska@#20Wisconsin
42%
58%
24
59
✓
WIS −2.6
–
–
Final
Northwestern@#22Notre DameUpset
14%
86%
43
40
✗
ND −16.9
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@FIU
67%
33%
28
38
✗
MTSU −7.4
–
–
Final
Washington@#24Arizona
28%
72%
26
27
✓
ARIZ −9.1
–
–
Final
#12Mississippi State@#1Alabama
27%
73%
20
25
✓
ALA −9.4
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@Navy
58%
42%
19
52
✗
GASO −3.7
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Utah State
13%
87%
21
28
✓
USU −17.6
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Tennessee
24%
76%
16
50
✓
TENN −10.9
–
–
Final
Hawaii@San Jose State
26%
74%
13
0
✗
SJSU −9.9
–
–
Final
Troy@Idaho
59%
41%
34
17
✓
TROY −4.2
–
–
Final
Utah@#21StanfordUpset
34%
66%
20
17
✗
STAN −6.0
–
–

Prime time 8 games

Final
#4Auburn@#10Georgia
51%
49%
7
34
✗
AUB −0.8
–
–
Final
Texas@Oklahoma State
47%
53%
28
7
✗
OKST −0.8
–
–
Final
Missouri@Texas A&M
39%
61%
34
27
✗
TA&M −4.1
–
–
Final
Texas State@South Alabama
34%
66%
20
24
✓
USA −6.0
–
–
Final
USF@SMU
60%
40%
14
13
✓
USF −4.5
–
–
Final
#11Florida State@#23Miami (FL)
54%
46%
30
26
✓
FSU −2.2
–
–
Final
#7Michigan State@Maryland
74%
26%
37
15
✓
MSU −11.0
–
–
Final
#18LSU@ArkansasUpset
57%
42%
0
17
✗
LSU −3.5
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
North Texas@UTEP
33%
67%
17
35
✓
UTEP −6.6
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Boise State
14%
86%
29
38
✓
BOIS −17.1
–
–
Final
#17Arizona State@Oregon StateUpset
81%
19%
27
35
✗
ASU −14.3
–
–

Sun, Nov 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
UNLV@BYU
3.9%
96%
23
42
✓
BYU −27.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Louisiana-Monroe
66%
34%
34
27
✓
UL −7.0
–
–