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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 13 slate, 2014

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 59 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 71

Wilder than 71% of weeks in the archive.

16 upsets against 13.1 expected

  • Biggest shockWake Forest over Virginia Tech16% chance · won 6-3
  • Runner-upOld Dominion over Louisiana Tech17% chance · won 30-27
  • Runner-upNorth Carolina over Duke21% chance · won 45-20

Upsets

Tue, Nov 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Northern Illinois@Ohio
64%
36%
21
14
✓
NIU −6.0
–
–

Wed, Nov 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Bowling Green@Toledo
38%
62%
20
27
✓
TOL −4.3
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
UMass@Akron
33%
67%
6
30
✓
AKR −6.7
–
–

Thu, Nov 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
North Carolina@DukeUpset
21%
79%
45
20
✗
DUKE −12.6
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Texas State
64%
36%
27
45
✗
ARST −6.4
–
–

Fri, Nov 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 3 games

Final
UTEP@Rice
32%
68%
13
31
✓
RICE −6.8
–
–
Final
Air Force@San Diego State
50%
50%
14
30
✓
AF −0.3
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Utah State
18%
82%
7
41
✓
USU −13.9
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#16Kansas State@West Virginia
57%
43%
26
20
✓
KSU −3.3
–
–

Sat, Nov 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 18 games

Final
SMU@UCF
3.3%
97%
7
53
✓
UCF −29.1
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Houston
8.7%
91%
28
38
✓
HOU −21.4
–
–
Final
Penn State@Illinois
72%
28%
14
16
✗
PSU −9.9
–
–
Final
Indiana@#4Ohio State
2.7%
97%
27
42
✓
OSU −30.6
–
–
Final
Minnesota@#21NebraskaUpset
26%
74%
28
24
✗
NEB −9.7
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Purdue
57%
43%
38
14
✓
NU −3.2
–
–
Final
Rutgers@#7Michigan State
6.5%
94%
3
45
✓
MSU −23.9
–
–
Final
#14Marshall@UAB
90%
10%
23
18
✓
MRSH −20.4
–
–
Final
UTSA@Western Kentucky
25%
75%
7
45
✓
WKU −10.3
–
–
Final
South Alabama@South Carolina
13%
87%
12
37
✓
SC −17.3
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Wake ForestUpset
84%
16%
3
6
✗
VT −16.5
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Old DominionUpset
83%
17%
27
30
✗
LT −15.6
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Central Michigan
50%
50%
32
20
✗
WMU −0.3
–
–
Final
Washington State@#18Arizona State
15%
86%
31
52
✓
ASU −16.5
–
–
Final
Kansas@#9Oklahoma
3.3%
97%
7
44
✓
OU −29.2
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Colorado State
12%
88%
20
58
✓
CSU −18.1
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Ball State
12%
88%
30
45
✓
BALL −18.4
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@Louisiana
30%
70%
35
16
✗
UL −7.9
–
–

Afternoon 15 games

Final
Tulane@East Carolina
11%
89%
6
34
✓
ECU −19.2
–
–
Final
Boston College@#10Florida State
11%
89%
17
20
✓
FSU −19.0
–
–
Final
Georgia State@Clemson
1.2%
99%
0
28
✓
CLEM −35.8
–
–
Final
Louisville@#24Notre DameUpset
40%
60%
31
28
✗
ND −3.6
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Pittsburgh
32%
68%
7
30
✓
PITT −6.8
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@Iowa State
37%
63%
34
31
✗
ISU −4.9
–
–
Final
#12Wisconsin@Iowa
71%
29%
26
24
✓
WIS −9.4
–
–
Final
Maryland@Michigan
43%
57%
23
16
✗
MICH −2.2
–
–
Final
FIU@North Texas
36%
64%
14
17
✓
UNT −5.0
–
–
Final
#25Arizona@Utah
43%
57%
42
10
✗
UTAH −2.4
–
–
Final
#6Ole Miss@ArkansasUpset
66%
34%
0
30
✗
MISS −7.0
–
–
Final
USF@Memphis
5.0%
95%
20
31
✓
MEM −26.0
–
–
Final
#23Stanford@California
64%
36%
38
17
✓
STAN −6.4
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@New Mexico State
65%
35%
30
17
✓
ULM −6.7
–
–
Final
Colorado@#1Oregon
2.0%
98%
10
44
✓
ORE −32.5
–
–

Prime time 5 games

Final
Oklahoma State@#3Baylor
7.2%
93%
28
49
✓
BAY −23.0
–
–
Final
Missouri@Tennessee
43%
57%
29
21
✗
TENN −2.4
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@#13Mississippi State
2.4%
98%
0
51
✓
MSST −31.5
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@UConn
77%
23%
41
0
✓
CIN −12.1
–
–
Final
#17USC@#15UCLA
40%
60%
20
38
✓
UCLA −3.7
–
–

Late night 4 games

Final
Boise State@Wyoming
81%
19%
63
14
✓
BOIS −14.5
–
–
Final
Fresno State@NevadaUpset
24%
76%
40
20
✗
NEV −11.0
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Washington
28%
72%
13
37
✓
WASH −8.7
–
–
Final
UNLV@Hawaii
25%
75%
35
37
✓
HAW −10.4
–
–

Sun, Nov 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
#22Miami (FL)@VirginiaUpset
68%
32%
13
30
✗
MIA −8.1
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Middle Tennessee
34%
66%
34
35
✓
MTSU −6.3
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 22 · 4:00 PM ET Western Carolina at #2 Alabama Alabama −62.7 >99%
Sun, Nov 23 · TBD Samford at #8 Auburn Auburn −55.4 >99%
Sat, Nov 22 · 12:00 PM ET Eastern Kentucky at Florida Florida −42.9 >99%
Sat, Nov 22 · 12:00 PM ET Charleston Southern at #5 Georgia Georgia −65.3 >99%
Sat, Nov 22 · 12:00 PM ET Fordham at Army Army −16.8 86%
Sat, Nov 22 · 3:00 PM ET Savannah State at BYU BYU −51.8 >99%