The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Bowls slate, 2014

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 39 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 29

Wilder than 29% of weeks in the archive.

18 upsets against 15.9 expected

  • Biggest shockClemson over Oklahoma33% chance · won 40-6
  • Runner-upNC State over UCF33% chance · won 34-27
  • Runner-upNotre Dame over LSU38% chance · won 31-28

Upsets

Sat, Dec 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 2 games

Final
NevadavsLouisiana
55%
44%
3
16
✗
NEV −2.7
–
–
Final
Utah StatevsUTEP
72%
28%
21
6
✓
USU −9.8
–
–

Afternoon 2 games

Final
UtahvsColorado State
54%
46%
45
10
✓
UTAH −1.9
–
–
Final
Western MichiganvsAir Force
48%
52%
24
38
✓
AF −0.3
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
South AlabamavsBowling Green
51%
49%
28
33
✗
USA −0.8
–
–

Mon, Dec 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
BYUvsMemphis
46%
54%
48
55
✓
MEM −1.1
–
–

Tue, Dec 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
#18MarshallvsNorthern Illinois
79%
21%
52
23
✓
MRSH −13.3
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
NavyvsSan Diego State
58%
42%
17
16
✓
NAVY −3.6
–
–

Wed, Dec 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Central MichiganvsWestern Kentucky
30%
70%
48
49
✓
WKU −8.0
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
Fresno StatevsRice
46%
54%
6
30
✓
RICE −1.1
–
–

Fri, Dec 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
IllinoisvsLouisiana Tech
26%
74%
18
35
✓
LT −10.0
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
RutgersvsNorth Carolina
41%
59%
40
21
✗
UNC −3.0
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
NC StatevsUCF
33%
67%
34
27
✗
UCF −6.4
–
–

Sat, Dec 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 2 games

Final
CincinnativsVirginia Tech
49%
51%
17
33
✓
CIN −0.1
–
–
Final
#20Arizona StatevsDuke
64%
36%
36
31
✓
ASU −6.1
–
–

Afternoon 2 games

Final
Miami (FL)vsSouth Carolina
53%
47%
21
24
✗
MIA −1.9
–
–
Final
Boston CollegevsPenn State
50%
50%
30
31
✓
BC −0.4
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#24Nebraskavs#14USC
38%
62%
42
45
✓
USC −4.3
–
–

Mon, Dec 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Texas A&MvsWest Virginia
49%
51%
45
37
✗
TA&M −0.1
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
#9OklahomavsClemsonUpset
67%
33%
6
40
✗
OU −7.3
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#22ArkansasvsTexas
63%
37%
31
7
✓
ARK −5.9
–
–

Tue, Dec 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 2 games

Final
Notre Damevs#21LSUUpset
38%
62%
31
28
✗
LSU −4.6
–
–
Final
#8GeorgiavsLouisville
67%
33%
37
14
✓
UGA −7.5
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Marylandvs#16Stanford
24%
76%
21
45
✓
STAN −10.6
–
–

Wed, Dec 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
#7Ole Missvs#6TCU
44%
56%
3
42
✓
TCU −2.0
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
#25Boise Statevs#23Arizona
47%
53%
38
30
✗
ARIZ −0.8
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#11Mississippi Statevs#19Georgia Tech
57%
43%
34
49
✗
MSST −3.2
–
–

Thu, Jan 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 3 games

Final
#10Auburnvs#17Wisconsin
57%
43%
31
34
✗
AUB −3.3
–
–
Final
#5Michigan Statevs#4Baylor
47%
53%
42
41
✗
BAY −0.5
–
–
Final
MissourivsMinnesota
57%
43%
33
17
✓
MIZ −3.3
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
#1Oregonvs#12Florida State
72%
28%
59
20
✓
ORE −9.9
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#2Alabamavs#3Ohio State
50%
50%
35
42
✗
ALA −0.5
–
–

Fri, Jan 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
HoustonvsPittsburgh
44%
56%
35
34
✗
PITT −1.7
–
–

Afternoon 2 games

Final
IowavsTennessee
43%
57%
28
45
✓
TENN −2.5
–
–
Final
#13Kansas Statevs#15UCLA
50%
50%
35
40
✗
KSU −0.6
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
WashingtonvsOklahoma State
59%
41%
22
30
✗
WASH −4.1
–
–

Sat, Jan 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
East CarolinavsFlorida
43%
57%
20
28
✓
FLA −2.5
–
–

Sun, Jan 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
ToledovsArkansas State
48%
52%
63
44
✗
ARST −0.2
–
–

Mon, Jan 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#1Oregonvs#3Ohio State
57%
43%
20
42
✗
ORE −3.1
–
–