Week 1 slate, 2014

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 84 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 15

Wilder than 15% of weeks in the archive.

13 upsets against 14.9 expected

Biggest shockUTSA over Houston24% chance · won 27-7
Runner-upCalifornia over Northwestern25% chance · won 31-24
Runner-upRutgers over Washington State27% chance · won 41-38

Upsets

UTSA 27, Houston 7UTSA won; the model gave them 24% before kickoff
Wisconsin 24, LSU 28#16 Wisconsin lost to unranked LSU
Miami (FL) 13, Louisville 31#23 Miami (FL) lost to unranked Louisville

Thu, Aug 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final

#21Texas A&M@

#11South Carolina

33%
67%

52
28

✗

SC −6.2

–

Prime time 1 game

Final

Wake Forest@

Louisiana-Monroe

45%
55%

10
17

✓

ULM −1.6

–

Late night 2 games

Final

Rutgers@

Washington State

27%
73%

41
38

✗

WSU −9.1

–

Final

Temple@

Vanderbilt

34%
66%

37
7

✗

VAN −6.0

–

Fri, Aug 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 4 games

Final

BYU@

UConn

60%
40%

35
10

✓

BYU −4.2

–

Final

Bowling Green@

Western Kentucky

48%
52%

31
59

✓

WKU −0.4

–

Final

UTSA@

#24HoustonUpset

24%
76%

27
7

✗

HOU −10.4

–

Final

Colorado Statevs

Colorado

62%
38%

31
17

✓

CSU −5.3

–

Late night 1 game

Final

UNLV@

Arizona

26%
74%

13
58

✓

ARIZ −9.2

–

Time TBD 2 games

Final

Tulane@

Tulsa

53%
46%

31
38

✗

TULN −1.9

–

Final

Boise Statevs

Ole Miss

46%
54%

13
35

✓

MISS −0.9

–

Sat, Aug 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 7 games

Final

Penn Statevs

UCF

42%
58%

26
24

✗

UCF −2.7

–

Final

#7UCLA@

Virginia

76%
24%

28
20

✓

UCLA −11.3

–

Final

Appalachian State@

Michigan

18%
82%

14
52

✓

MICH −13.5

–

Final

#10Ohio Statevs

Navy

65%
35%

34
17

✓

OSU −6.3

–

Final

Western Michigan@

Purdue

35%
65%

34
43

✓

PUR −5.5

–

Final

Troy@

UAB

55%
45%

10
48

✗

TROY −2.5

–

Final

Georgia Southern@

NC State

66%
34%

23
24

✗

GASO −6.7

–

Afternoon 9 games

Final

Boston College@

UMass

75%
25%

30
7

✓

BC −11.1

–

Final

West Virginiavs

#5Alabama

20%
80%

23
33

✓

ALA −12.6

–

Final

Florida Atlantic@

Nebraska

35%
65%

7
55

✓

NEB −5.5

–

Final

California@

Northwestern

25%
75%

31
24

✗

NU −9.7

–

Final

Marshall@

Miami (OH)

78%
22%

42
27

✓

MRSH −12.3

–

Final

Rice@

Notre Dame

29%
71%

17
48

✓

ND −8.2

–

Final

Arkansas@

#8Auburn

18%
82%

21
45

✓

AUB −13.9

–

Final

#22Clemson@

#17Georgia

37%
63%

21
45

✓

UGA −4.7

–

Final

Ohio@

Kent State

32%
68%

17
14

✗

KENT −6.9

–

Prime time 4 games

Final

Louisiana Tech@

#14Oklahoma

12%
88%

16
48

✓

OU −18.2

–

Final

Southern Miss@

#19Mississippi State

8.4%
92%

0
49

✓

MSST −21.0

–

Final

Fresno State@

#15USC

26%
74%

13
52

✓

USC −9.6

–

Final

#16Wisconsinvs

LSUUpset

55%
45%

24
28

✗

WIS −2.3

–

Late night 1 game

Final

Washington@

Hawaii

75%
25%

17
16

✓

WASH −10.9

–

Sun, Aug 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final

Utah State@

Tennessee

47%
53%

7
38

✓

TENN −0.7

–

Final

SMU@

#2Baylor

7.9%
92%

0
45

✓

BAY −21.5

–

Time TBD 3 games

Final

#1Florida Statevs

#13Oklahoma State

65%
35%

37
31

✓

FSU −6.4

–

Final

North Texas@

Texas

29%
71%

7
38

✓

TEX −8.2

–

Final

UTEP@

New Mexico

33%
67%

31
24

✗

UNM −6.5

–

Tue, Sep 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final

#23Miami (FL)@

LouisvilleUpset

42%
58%

13
31

✓

LOU −2.8

–

Against FCS opponents

When	Game	Model	Win
Sun, Aug 31 · TBD	North Carolina Central at #25 East Carolina	East Carolina −41.4	>99%
Sat, Aug 30 · 7:00 PM ET	Austin Peay at Memphis	Memphis −36.4	99%
Sat, Aug 30 · 7:00 PM ET	Western Carolina at USF	USF −26.3	96%
Sat, Aug 30 · 6:00 PM ET	Elon at Duke	Duke −42.5	>99%
Sat, Aug 30 · 12:30 PM ET	Wofford at Georgia Tech	Georgia Tech −33.3	98%
Sat, Aug 30 · 6:00 PM ET	Liberty at North Carolina	North Carolina −10.4	76%
Sat, Aug 30 · 12:00 PM ET	Delaware at Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh −19.1	90%
Fri, Aug 29 · 7:30 PM ET	Villanova at Syracuse	Syracuse −36.3	99%
Sat, Aug 30 · 4:00 PM ET	William & Mary at Virginia Tech	Virginia Tech −32.1	98%
Sat, Aug 30 · 7:00 PM ET	Samford at TCU	TCU −35.0	99%
Sat, Aug 30 · 7:00 PM ET	Central Arkansas at Texas Tech	Texas Tech −33.9	99%
Sat, Aug 30 · 7:10 PM ET	Stephen F. Austin at #12 Kansas State	Kansas State −45.0	>99%
Sat, Aug 30 · 12:00 PM ET	North Dakota State at Iowa State	North Dakota State −5.4	63%
Sat, Aug 30 · 12:00 PM ET	Youngstown State at Illinois	Illinois −23.1	93%
Sat, Aug 30 · 12:00 PM ET	Indiana State at Indiana	Indiana −32.8	98%
Sat, Aug 30 · 12:00 PM ET	Northern Iowa at #20 Iowa	Iowa −28.3	97%
Sat, Aug 30 · 3:30 PM ET	James Madison at Maryland	Maryland −8.5	72%
Fri, Aug 29 · 7:30 PM ET	Jacksonville State at #6 Michigan State	Michigan State −18.2	88%
Thu, Aug 28 · 7:00 PM ET	Eastern Illinois at Minnesota	Minnesota −28.0	96%
Sat, Aug 30 · 7:00 PM ET	Bethune-Cookman at FIU	FIU −7.3	69%
Sat, Aug 30 · 7:00 PM ET	Savannah State at Middle Tennessee	Middle Tennessee −32.5	98%
Sat, Aug 30 · 3:30 PM ET	Hampton at Old Dominion	Old Dominion −11.1	77%
Thu, Aug 28 · 7:00 PM ET	Howard at Akron	Akron −31.7	98%
Thu, Aug 28 · 7:00 PM ET	Presbyterian at Northern Illinois	Northern Illinois −40.9	>99%
Thu, Aug 28 · 7:00 PM ET	Chattanooga at Central Michigan	Central Michigan −26.3	96%
Sat, Aug 30 · 2:00 PM ET	Colgate at Ball State	Ball State −28.7	97%
Sat, Aug 30 · 3:30 PM ET	Duquesne at Buffalo	Buffalo −23.2	94%
Sat, Aug 30 · 6:00 PM ET	Morgan State at Eastern Michigan	Eastern Michigan −30.3	98%
Sat, Aug 30 · 7:00 PM ET	New Hampshire at Toledo	Toledo −32.2	98%
Sat, Aug 30 · 2:00 PM ET	Nicholls at Air Force	Air Force −26.5	96%
Sat, Aug 30 · 3:00 PM ET	Southern Utah at Nevada	Nevada −26.7	96%
Sat, Aug 30 · 7:00 PM ET	Northern Arizona vs San Diego State	San Diego State −28.8	97%
Sat, Aug 30 · 4:00 PM ET	Montana at Wyoming	Wyoming −16.1	86%
Thu, Aug 28 · 10:30 PM ET	Weber State at #9 Arizona State	Arizona State −44.3	>99%
Thu, Aug 28 · 7:30 PM ET	Idaho State at Utah	Utah −41.6	>99%
Sat, Aug 30 · 10:30 PM ET	South Dakota at #3 Oregon	Oregon −44.3	>99%
Sat, Aug 30 · 4:00 PM ET	Portland State at Oregon State	Oregon State −41.2	>99%
Sat, Aug 30 · 4:00 PM ET	UC Davis at #4 Stanford	Stanford −49.8	>99%
Sat, Aug 30 · 12:00 PM ET	UT Martin at Kentucky	Kentucky −31.8	98%
Sat, Aug 30 · 3:30 PM ET	South Dakota State at #18 Missouri	Missouri −42.4	>99%
Wed, Aug 27 · 7:00 PM ET	Abilene Christian vs Georgia State	Georgia State −14.3	83%
Fri, Aug 29 · TBD	Cal Poly at New Mexico State	New Mexico State −15.3	85%
Sat, Aug 30 · 7:00 PM ET	Montana State at Arkansas State	Arkansas State −22.2	93%
Sat, Aug 30 · 7:00 PM ET	Southern at Louisiana	Louisiana −36.4	99%
Sat, Aug 30 · 7:00 PM ET	Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Texas State	Texas State −25.7	95%
Thu, Aug 28 · 10:00 PM ET	North Dakota at San Jose State	San Jose State −23.7	94%