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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 4 slate, 2014

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 57 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 90

Wilder than 90% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 12.4 expected

  • Biggest shockNorthwestern State over Louisiana Tech0.3% chance · won 30-27
  • Runner-upIndiana over Missouri13% chance · won 31-27
  • Runner-upRutgers over Navy21% chance · won 31-24

Upsets

Thu, Sep 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#2Auburn@#24Kansas State
67%
33%
20
14
✓
AUB −7.2
–
–

Sat, Sep 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 10 games

Final
Georgia Tech@Virginia Tech
34%
66%
27
24
✗
VT −6.9
–
–
Final
Iowa@Pittsburgh
30%
70%
24
20
✗
PITT −9.1
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@#13Michigan State
0.5%
>99%
14
73
✓
MSU −43.0
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Wisconsin
19%
81%
17
68
✓
WIS −14.6
–
–
Final
Old Dominion@RiceUpset
22%
78%
45
42
✗
RICE −13.1
–
–
Final
Troy@#17Georgia
2.1%
98%
0
66
✓
UGA −33.8
–
–
Final
Tulane@Duke
9.9%
90%
13
47
✓
DUKE −21.4
–
–
Final
Maryland@Syracuse
44%
56%
34
20
✗
SYR −2.5
–
–
Final
#25Marshall@Akron
71%
29%
48
17
✓
MRSH −9.2
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Colorado
37%
63%
12
21
✓
COLO −5.6
–
–

Afternoon 15 games

Final
North Carolina@East Carolina
41%
59%
41
70
✓
ECU −3.8
–
–
Final
#8Texas A&M@SMU
93%
6.7%
58
6
✓
TA&M −24.7
–
–
Final
Louisville@FIU
92%
7.6%
34
3
✓
LOU −23.7
–
–
Final
Virginia@#10BYU
11%
89%
33
41
✓
BYU −20.1
–
–
Final
Army@Wake Forest
52%
48%
21
24
✗
ARMY −0.6
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Kansas
52%
48%
10
24
✗
CMU −0.6
–
–
Final
Utah@Michigan
39%
61%
26
10
✗
MICH −4.6
–
–
Final
Rutgers@NavyUpset
21%
79%
31
24
✗
NAVY −13.5
–
–
Final
Florida@#5Alabama
16%
84%
21
42
✓
ALA −16.3
–
–
Final
Texas State@Illinois
46%
54%
35
42
✓
ILL −1.7
–
–
Final
Indiana@#20MissouriUpset
13%
87%
31
27
✗
MIZ −18.7
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Minnesota
35%
65%
7
24
✓
MINN −6.3
–
–
Final
UMass@Penn State
3.6%
96%
7
48
✓
PSU −30.0
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Wyoming
56%
44%
19
20
✗
FAU −2.4
–
–
Final
Georgia State@Washington
5.3%
95%
14
45
✓
WASH −26.9
–
–

Prime time 11 games

Final
Miami (OH)@Cincinnati
4.8%
95%
24
31
✓
CIN −27.8
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Memphis
31%
68%
17
36
✓
MEM −8.1
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@Southern Miss
68%
32%
20
21
✗
APP −7.5
–
–
Final
Ball State@Toledo
31%
70%
23
34
✓
TOL −8.6
–
–
Final
Idaho@Ohio
6.4%
94%
24
36
✓
OHIO −25.3
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Arkansas
45%
55%
14
52
✓
ARK −2.2
–
–
Final
Utah State@Arkansas State
51%
49%
14
21
✗
USU −0.2
–
–
Final
#12Mississippi State@#16LSU
42%
58%
34
29
✗
LSU −3.5
–
–
Final
#1Oklahoma@West Virginia
77%
23%
45
33
✓
OU −11.9
–
–
Final
#23South Carolina@Vanderbilt
83%
17%
48
34
✓
SC −15.9
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@South Alabama
59%
41%
28
6
✓
GASO −3.5
–
–

Late night 4 games

Final
California@Arizona
25%
75%
45
49
✓
ARIZ −11.2
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Boise State
16%
84%
9
34
✓
BOIS −16.9
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Oregon State
35%
65%
7
28
✓
ORST −6.5
–
–
Final
#4Oregon@Washington State
82%
18%
38
31
✓
ORE −15.3
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
UConn@USF
59%
41%
14
17
✗
CONN −3.7
–
–

Sun, Sep 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 4 games

Final
Clemson@#7Florida State
17%
83%
17
23
✓
FSU −16.2
–
–
Final
Miami (FL)@#22Nebraska
28%
72%
31
41
✓
NEB −10.0
–
–
Final
New Mexico@New Mexico State
54%
46%
38
35
✓
UNM −1.7
–
–
Final
UNLV@Houston
12%
88%
14
47
✓
HOU −19.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 20 · 6:00 PM ET Bethune-Cookman at UCF UCF −32.9 98%
Sat, Sep 20 · 1:00 PM ET Delaware State at Temple Temple −26.5 94%
Sat, Sep 20 · 1:00 PM ET Maine at Boston College Boston College −34.0 98%
Sat, Sep 20 · 6:00 PM ET Presbyterian at NC State NC State −45.9 >99%
Sat, Sep 20 · 12:00 PM ET Western Illinois at Northwestern Northwestern −43.0 >99%
Sat, Sep 20 · 12:00 PM ET Southern Illinois at Purdue Purdue −26.2 94%
Sat, Sep 20 · 7:00 PM ET Northwestern State at Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech −46.0 >99%
Sat, Sep 20 · 3:30 PM ET Nicholls at North Texas North Texas −40.1 99%
Sat, Sep 20 · 7:00 PM ET Murray State at Western Michigan Western Michigan −35.0 98%
Sat, Sep 20 · 3:30 PM ET Norfolk State at Buffalo Buffalo −33.1 98%
Sat, Sep 20 · 10:00 PM ET Southern Utah at Fresno State Fresno State −22.7 91%