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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 6 slate, 2014

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 57 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 90

Wilder than 90% of weeks in the archive.

16 upsets against 16.4 expected

  • Biggest shockUtah State over BYU11% chance · won 35-20
  • Runner-upNew Mexico over UTSA16% chance · won 21-9
  • Runner-upUAB over Western Kentucky16% chance · won 42-39

Upsets

Thu, Oct 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
UCF@Houston
41%
59%
17
12
✗
HOU −3.9
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@FIUUpset
77%
23%
10
38
✗
FAU −11.9
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Arizona@#5OregonUpset
18%
82%
31
24
✗
ORE −15.4
–
–

Fri, Oct 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Louisville@Syracuse
62%
38%
28
6
✓
LOU −4.9
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
San Diego State@Fresno State
47%
53%
13
24
✓
FRES −1.2
–
–
Final
Utah State@#18BYUUpset
11%
89%
35
20
✗
BYU −20.8
–
–

Sat, Oct 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 13 games

Final
SMU@East Carolina
2.4%
98%
24
45
✓
ECU −32.9
–
–
Final
Iowa State@#19Oklahoma State
16%
84%
20
37
✓
OKST −17.0
–
–
Final
Purdue@Illinois
36%
64%
38
27
✗
ILL −6.3
–
–
Final
#11Ohio State@Maryland
56%
44%
52
24
✓
OSU −2.5
–
–
Final
#21Marshall@Old Dominion
91%
9.0%
56
14
✓
MRSH −22.2
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Middle Tennessee
12%
88%
31
37
✓
MTSU −19.5
–
–
Final
Ball State@Army
42%
58%
24
33
✓
ARMY −3.5
–
–
Final
Florida@Tennessee
37%
63%
10
9
✗
TENN −5.6
–
–
Final
#9Texas A&M@#14Mississippi State
47%
53%
31
48
✓
MSST −1.5
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@North Carolina
54%
46%
34
17
✓
VT −1.6
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Akron
7.2%
93%
6
31
✓
AKR −24.3
–
–
Final
North Texas@Indiana
38%
62%
24
49
✓
IU −5.3
–
–
Final
UMass@Miami (OH)
31%
69%
41
42
✓
M-OH −8.4
–
–

Afternoon 17 games

Final
Tulsa@Colorado State
15%
85%
17
42
✓
CSU −17.5
–
–
Final
NC State@Clemson
25%
75%
0
41
✓
CLEM −11.4
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@#10Florida State
3.6%
96%
3
43
✓
FSU −29.9
–
–
Final
#3Baylor@Texas
73%
27%
28
7
✓
BAY −9.9
–
–
Final
#4Oklahoma@#24TCU
66%
34%
33
37
✗
OU −6.7
–
–
Final
#22Wisconsin@NorthwesternUpset
66%
34%
14
20
✗
WIS −6.9
–
–
Final
New Mexico@UTSAUpset
16%
84%
21
9
✗
UTSA −16.9
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Bowling Green
39%
61%
35
36
✓
BGSU −4.7
–
–
Final
Ohio@Central Michigan
45%
55%
10
28
✓
CMU −2.2
–
–
Final
Navy@Air Force
62%
38%
21
30
✗
NAVY −5.1
–
–
Final
#13Stanford@#17Notre Dame
43%
57%
14
17
✓
ND −3.0
–
–
Final
#2Alabama@#6Ole Miss
50%
50%
17
23
✓
MISS −0.3
–
–
Final
Kansas@West Virginia
10%
90%
14
33
✓
WVU −21.0
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Colorado
65%
35%
36
31
✓
ORST −6.2
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@#12Georgia
3.9%
96%
17
44
✓
UGA −29.4
–
–
Final
Kent State@Northern Illinois
15%
85%
14
17
✓
NIU −17.6
–
–
Final
South Alabama@Appalachian State
51%
49%
47
21
✓
USA −0.4
–
–

Prime time 15 games

Final
Memphis@Cincinnati
46%
54%
41
14
✗
CIN −1.9
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@#23Kansas State
14%
86%
13
45
✓
KSU −18.0
–
–
Final
Michigan@Rutgers
46%
54%
24
26
✓
RUTG −1.6
–
–
Final
UTEP@Louisiana Tech
33%
67%
3
55
✓
LT −7.4
–
–
Final
UAB@Western KentuckyUpset
16%
84%
42
39
✗
WKU −16.5
–
–
Final
Toledo@Western Michigan
62%
38%
20
19
✓
TOL −5.0
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Rice
31%
69%
14
28
✓
RICE −8.5
–
–
Final
#16LSU@#1Auburn
27%
73%
7
41
✓
AUB −10.4
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Arkansas State
27%
73%
14
28
✓
ARST −10.3
–
–
Final
Georgia State@Louisiana
20%
80%
31
34
✓
UL −14.1
–
–
Final
Idaho@Texas State
4.8%
95%
30
35
✓
TXST −27.6
–
–
Final
Miami (FL)@Georgia Tech
46%
54%
17
28
✓
GT −1.9
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Virginia
41%
59%
19
24
✓
UVA −3.9
–
–
Final
Arizona State@#15USCUpset
27%
73%
38
34
✗
USC −10.3
–
–
Final
#25South Carolina@KentuckyUpset
68%
32%
38
45
✗
SC −7.8
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
Boise State@Nevada
53%
47%
51
46
✓
BOIS −1.2
–
–
Final
Utah@#7UCLAUpset
22%
78%
30
28
✗
UCLA −12.7
–
–
Final
California@Washington State
38%
62%
60
59
✗
WSU −5.1
–
–

Sun, Oct 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
#20Nebraska@#8Michigan State
32%
68%
22
27
✓
MSU −7.7
–
–
Final
UNLV@San Jose State
17%
83%
10
33
✓
SJSU −15.8
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@New Mexico State
92%
8.1%
36
28
✓
GASO −23.1
–
–