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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 11 slate, 2014

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 50 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 31

Wilder than 31% of weeks in the archive.

12 upsets against 14.7 expected

  • Biggest shockTulane over Houston9.6% chance · won 31-24
  • Runner-upTexas A&M over Auburn13% chance · won 41-38
  • Runner-upKansas over Iowa State31% chance · won 34-14

Upsets

Tue, Nov 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Bowling Green@Akron
40%
60%
27
10
✗
AKR −3.4
–
–
Final
Toledo@Kent State
67%
33%
30
20
✓
TOL −7.5
–
–

Wed, Nov 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Buffalo@Ohio
47%
53%
14
37
✓
OHIO −0.8
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Ball State
52%
48%
35
21
✓
NIU −1.3
–
–

Thu, Nov 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#25Clemson@Wake Forest
89%
11%
34
20
✓
CLEM −20.2
–
–

Fri, Nov 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Memphis@Temple
56%
44%
16
13
✓
MEM −3.1
–
–
Final
Utah State@Wyoming
72%
28%
20
3
✓
USU −9.5
–
–

Sat, Nov 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 10 games

Final
SMU@Tulsa
26%
74%
28
38
✓
TLSA −10.0
–
–
Final
#9Baylor@#5Oklahoma
38%
62%
48
14
✗
OU −4.6
–
–
Final
Penn State@Indiana
63%
37%
13
7
✓
PSU −5.7
–
–
Final
Iowa@Minnesota
52%
48%
14
51
✗
IOWA −1.2
–
–
Final
#20Wisconsin@Purdue
85%
15%
34
16
✓
WIS −17.3
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@UAB
65%
35%
40
24
✓
LT −6.6
–
–
Final
UTSA@Rice
27%
73%
7
17
✓
RICE −9.1
–
–
Final
#13Georgia@Kentucky
79%
21%
63
31
✓
UGA −13.3
–
–
Final
Duke@Syracuse
67%
33%
27
10
✓
DUKE −7.4
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@NC State
73%
27%
56
23
✓
GT −10.4
–
–

Afternoon 17 games

Final
South Alabama@Arkansas State
36%
64%
10
45
✓
ARST −5.2
–
–
Final
Georgia State@Troy
34%
66%
21
45
✓
TROY −5.9
–
–
Final
UConnvsArmy
58%
42%
21
35
✗
CONN −3.9
–
–
Final
Tulane@HoustonUpset
9.6%
90%
31
24
✗
HOU −20.5
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Kansas
69%
31%
14
34
✗
ISU −8.3
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Texas
55%
45%
16
33
✗
WVU −2.5
–
–
Final
Michigan@Northwestern
54%
46%
10
9
✓
MICH −2.2
–
–
Final
FIU@Old Dominion
45%
55%
35
38
✓
ODU −1.5
–
–
Final
#18Notre Dame@#21Arizona State
45%
55%
31
55
✓
ASU −1.4
–
–
Final
Texas A&M@#1AuburnUpset
13%
87%
41
38
✗
AUB −17.2
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Appalachian State
30%
70%
29
31
✓
APP −8.1
–
–
Final
UTEP@Western Kentucky
36%
64%
27
35
✓
WKU −5.4
–
–
Final
Air Force@UNLV
73%
27%
48
21
✓
AF −10.0
–
–
Final
Washington State@Oregon State
42%
58%
39
32
✗
ORST −2.7
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@Texas State
83%
17%
28
25
✓
GASO −15.5
–
–
Final
Virginia@#11Florida State
9.6%
90%
20
34
✓
FSU −20.5
–
–
Final
Idaho@San Diego State
7.1%
93%
21
35
✓
SDSU −23.1
–
–

Prime time 7 games

Final
Louisville@Boston College
60%
40%
38
19
✓
LOU −4.5
–
–
Final
#10Kansas State@#12TCU
45%
55%
20
41
✓
TCU −1.7
–
–
Final
Florida@Vanderbilt
83%
17%
34
10
✓
FLA −15.8
–
–
Final
#7Ohio State@#6Michigan State
40%
60%
49
37
✗
MSU −3.3
–
–
Final
Colorado@#24Arizona
10.0%
90%
20
38
✓
ARIZ −20.1
–
–
Final
#2Alabama@#14LSU
62%
38%
20
13
✓
ALA −5.4
–
–
Final
Louisiana@New Mexico State
82%
18%
44
16
✓
UL −15.4
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
#3Oregon@Utah
71%
29%
51
27
✓
ORE −9.2
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Fresno State
52%
48%
24
38
✗
SJSU −1.2
–
–

Sun, Nov 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 5 games

Final
Florida Atlantic@North Texas
57%
43%
10
31
✗
FAU −3.1
–
–
Final
#17Marshall@Southern Miss
96%
4.4%
63
17
✓
MRSH −27.7
–
–
Final
Boise State@New Mexico
85%
15%
60
49
✓
BOIS −16.9
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Colorado State
11%
89%
22
49
✓
CSU −18.9
–
–
Final
#19UCLA@Washington
64%
36%
44
30
✓
UCLA −6.0
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 8 · 12:00 PM ET Presbyterian at #4 Ole Miss Ole Miss −69.4 >99%
Sat, Nov 8 · 4:00 PM ET UT Martin at #8 Mississippi State Mississippi State −63.4 >99%