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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 14 slate, 2015

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 15 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 89

Wilder than 89% of weeks in the archive.

4 upsets against 4.2 expected

  • Biggest shockGeorgia State over Georgia Southern8.8% chance · won 34-7
  • Runner-upTexas over Baylor11% chance · won 23-17
  • Runner-upKansas State over West Virginia32% chance · won 24-23

Upsets

Fri, Dec 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Bowling GreenvsNorthern Illinois
66%
34%
34
14
✓
BGSU −7.2
–
–

Sat, Dec 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 4 games

Final
Texas@#5BaylorUpset
11%
89%
23
17
✗
BAY −19.3
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Western Kentucky
26%
74%
28
45
✓
WKU −9.7
–
–
Final
Temple@Houston
30%
70%
13
24
✓
HOU −7.8
–
–
Final
Georgia State@Georgia SouthernUpset
8.8%
91%
34
7
✗
GASO −21.3
–
–

Afternoon 5 games

Final
Texas State@Arkansas State
9.7%
90%
17
55
✓
ARST −20.3
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Louisiana-Monroe
43%
57%
35
42
✓
ULM −2.2
–
–
Final
#22Floridavs#2Alabama
20%
80%
15
29
✓
ALA −12.7
–
–
Final
#25West Virginia@Kansas StateUpset
68%
32%
23
24
✗
WVU −7.8
–
–
Final
Troy@Louisiana
43%
57%
41
17
✗
UL −2.1
–
–

Prime time 5 games

Final
Appalachian State@South Alabama
88%
12%
34
27
✓
APP −19.5
–
–
Final
Air Force@San Diego State
35%
65%
24
27
✓
SDSU −5.7
–
–
Final
#8USCvs#6Stanford
44%
56%
22
41
✓
STAN −1.9
–
–
Final
#14North Carolinavs#4Clemson
39%
61%
37
45
✓
CLEM −4.1
–
–
Final
#7Michigan StatevsIowa
67%
33%
16
13
✓
MSU −7.5
–
–