The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 10 slate, 2015

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 60 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 43

Wilder than 43% of weeks in the archive.

17 upsets against 14.8 expected

  • Biggest shockNew Mexico State over Texas State16% chance · won 31-21
  • Runner-upOld Dominion over UTSA23% chance · won 36-31
  • Runner-upNorthern Illinois over Toledo24% chance · won 32-27

Upsets

Tue, Nov 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Northern Illinois@ToledoUpset
24%
76%
32
27
✗
TOL −11.0
–
–

Wed, Nov 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Ohio@Bowling Green
10%
90%
24
62
✓
BGSU −19.7
–
–

Thu, Nov 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 4 games

Final
#5Baylor@Kansas State
84%
16%
31
24
✓
BAY −16.6
–
–
Final
Ball State@Western Michigan
14%
86%
7
54
✓
WMU −16.8
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Appalachian State
26%
74%
40
27
✗
APP −9.7
–
–
Final
#14Mississippi State@Missouri
74%
26%
31
13
✓
MSST −10.9
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Nevada@Fresno State
60%
40%
30
16
✓
NEV −4.7
–
–

Fri, Nov 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Rice@UTEP
69%
31%
21
24
✗
RICE −8.4
–
–
Final
Temple@SMU
86%
14%
60
40
✓
TEM −17.8
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
BYU@San Jose State
82%
18%
17
16
✓
BYU −14.7
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Buffalo@Kent State
68%
32%
18
17
✓
BUF −7.8
–
–

Sat, Nov 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 16 games

Final
Vanderbilt@#12Florida
6.6%
93%
7
9
✓
FLA −23.8
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Georgia
15%
85%
3
27
✓
UGA −16.3
–
–
Final
Duke@North Carolina
30%
70%
31
66
✓
UNC −8.1
–
–
Final
#10Notre Dame@Pittsburgh
73%
27%
42
30
✓
ND −10.2
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@West Virginia
33%
67%
26
31
✓
WVU −6.5
–
–
Final
Penn State@Northwestern
54%
46%
21
23
✗
PSU −1.9
–
–
Final
Illinois@Purdue
50%
50%
48
14
✗
ILL −0.4
–
–
Final
Charlotte@FIU
12%
88%
31
48
✓
FIU −18.1
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Western Kentucky
7.3%
93%
19
35
✓
WKU −22.9
–
–
Final
UCF@Tulsa
18%
82%
30
45
✓
TLSA −14.0
–
–
Final
Akron@UMass
58%
42%
17
13
✓
AKR −3.8
–
–
Final
NC State@Boston College
64%
36%
24
8
✓
NCSU −6.0
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Louisville
22%
78%
17
41
✓
LOU −11.7
–
–
Final
#8Stanford@Colorado
90%
9.9%
42
10
✓
STAN −21.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Georgia State
64%
36%
23
21
✓
UL −6.1
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Miami (OH)
38%
62%
13
28
✓
M-OH −4.5
–
–

Afternoon 21 games

Final
Virginia@Miami (FL)
23%
77%
21
27
✓
MIA −11.3
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Wyoming
73%
27%
26
7
✓
CSU −10.4
–
–
Final
Idaho@South Alabama
25%
75%
45
52
✓
USA −10.3
–
–
Final
Arkansas@#17Ole MissUpset
29%
71%
53
52
✗
MISS −8.5
–
–
Final
#16Florida State@#4Clemson
26%
74%
13
23
✓
CLEM −10.0
–
–
Final
Arizona State@Washington State
52%
48%
24
38
✗
ASU −1.2
–
–
Final
Army@Air Force
12%
88%
3
20
✓
AF −18.1
–
–
Final
#9TCU@#24Oklahoma State
59%
41%
29
49
✗
TCU −4.1
–
–
Final
Iowa@Indiana
78%
22%
35
27
✓
IOWA −12.8
–
–
Final
#21Wisconsin@Maryland
81%
19%
31
24
✓
WIS −14.3
–
–
Final
Rutgers@#13Michigan
5.8%
94%
16
49
✓
MICH −24.9
–
–
Final
North Texas@Louisiana Tech
2.4%
98%
13
56
✓
LT −31.3
–
–
Final
Marshall@Middle Tennessee
58%
42%
24
27
✗
MRSH −3.6
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@#22Houston
22%
78%
30
33
✓
HOU −11.7
–
–
Final
Utah State@New MexicoUpset
76%
24%
13
14
✗
USU −11.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Troy
29%
71%
14
51
✓
TROY −8.2
–
–
Final
South Carolina@#11Tennessee
10%
90%
24
27
✓
TENN −19.6
–
–
Final
UConn@Tulane
58%
42%
7
3
✓
CONN −3.8
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Texas StateUpset
16%
84%
31
21
✗
TXST −15.6
–
–
Final
#20UCLA@Oregon State
87%
13%
41
0
✓
UCLA −18.7
–
–
Final
Hawaii@UNLV
33%
67%
21
41
✓
UNLV −6.4
–
–

Prime time 6 games

Final
Auburn@#19Texas A&MUpset
27%
73%
26
10
✗
TA&M −9.2
–
–
Final
#18Utah@#25Washington
48%
52%
34
23
✗
WASH −0.5
–
–
Final
USF@East Carolina
39%
61%
22
17
✗
ECU −4.0
–
–
Final
#6LSU@#1Alabama
32%
68%
16
30
✓
ALA −7.2
–
–
Final
Kansas@Texas
4.7%
95%
20
59
✓
TEX −26.5
–
–
Final
Minnesota@#2Ohio State
3.5%
96%
14
28
✓
OSU −28.8
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
Arizona@#7USC
9.3%
91%
30
38
✓
USC −20.8
–
–
Final
California@Oregon
37%
63%
28
44
✓
ORE −4.9
–
–

Sun, Nov 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 4 games

Final
Iowa State@#3Oklahoma
3.8%
96%
16
52
✓
OU −28.1
–
–
Final
#15Michigan State@NebraskaUpset
63%
37%
38
39
✗
MSU −5.7
–
–
Final
Old Dominion@UTSAUpset
23%
77%
36
31
✗
UTSA −11.3
–
–
Final
Navy@#23MemphisUpset
27%
73%
45
20
✗
MEM −9.4
–
–