The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Bowls slate, 2015

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 41 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 2

Wilder than 2% of weeks in the archive.

11 upsets against 14.5 expected

  • Biggest shockGeorgia Southern over Bowling Green30% chance · won 58-27
  • Runner-upHouston over Florida State34% chance · won 38-24
  • Runner-upAkron over Utah State38% chance · won 23-21

Upsets

Sat, Dec 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
ArizonavsNew Mexico
78%
22%
45
37
✓
ARIZ −13.0
–
–

Afternoon 2 games

Final
BYUvs#22Utah
36%
64%
28
35
✓
UTAH −5.3
–
–
Final
OhiovsAppalachian State
25%
75%
29
31
✓
APP −10.2
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
Arkansas StatevsLouisiana Tech
55%
45%
28
47
✗
ARST −2.3
–
–

Sun, Dec 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
San Jose StatevsGeorgia State
54%
46%
27
16
✓
SJSU −2.1
–
–

Mon, Dec 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Western KentuckyvsUSF
65%
35%
45
35
✓
WKU −6.6
–
–

Tue, Dec 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
AkronvsUtah State
38%
62%
23
21
✗
USU −4.5
–
–

Wed, Dec 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Boise StatevsNorthern Illinois
63%
37%
55
7
✓
BOIS −5.9
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
Georgia SouthernvsBowling Green
30%
70%
58
27
✗
BGSU −7.7
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
TemplevsToledo
42%
58%
17
32
✓
TOL −2.6
–
–

Thu, Dec 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Middle TennesseevsWestern Michigan
39%
61%
31
45
✓
WMU −3.9
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
San Diego StatevsCincinnati
53%
47%
42
7
✓
SDSU −1.8
–
–

Sat, Dec 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 3 games

Final
UConnvsMarshall
24%
76%
10
16
✓
MRSH −11.0
–
–
Final
Miami (FL)vsWashington State
53%
47%
14
20
✗
MIA −1.6
–
–
Final
#20WashingtonvsSouthern Miss
78%
22%
44
31
✓
WASH −12.6
–
–

Afternoon 2 games

Final
IndianavsDuke
39%
61%
41
44
✓
DUKE −4.1
–
–
Final
TulsavsVirginia Tech
17%
83%
52
55
✓
VT −14.8
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#21UCLAvsNebraskaUpset
61%
39%
29
37
✗
UCLA −5.0
–
–

Mon, Dec 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
PittsburghvsNavy
45%
55%
28
44
✓
NAVY −1.4
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Central MichiganvsMinnesota
43%
57%
14
21
✓
MINN −2.4
–
–

Tue, Dec 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
CaliforniavsAir Force
69%
31%
55
36
✓
CAL −8.2
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
#14North Carolinavs#6Baylor
43%
57%
38
49
✓
BAY −2.2
–
–

Prime time 2 games

Final
NevadavsColorado State
39%
61%
28
23
✗
CSU −3.9
–
–
Final
#15LSUvsTexas Tech
71%
29%
56
27
✓
LSU −9.2
–
–

Wed, Dec 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
AuburnvsMemphis
44%
56%
31
10
✗
MEM −1.9
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
NC Statevs#18Mississippi State
31%
69%
28
51
✓
MSST −7.5
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
#11USCvsWisconsinUpset
62%
38%
21
23
✗
USC −5.4
–
–

Thu, Dec 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Houstonvs#10Florida StateUpset
34%
66%
38
24
✗
FSU −5.9
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
#1Oklahomavs#5Clemson
62%
38%
17
37
✗
OU −5.3
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#7Michigan Statevs#2Alabama
30%
70%
0
38
✓
ALA −7.9
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Texas A&MvsLouisville
60%
40%
21
27
✗
TA&M −4.4
–
–

Fri, Jan 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 3 games

Final
Northwesternvs#13Tennessee
22%
78%
6
45
✓
TENN −12.1
–
–
Final
#16Michiganvs#23Florida
56%
44%
41
7
✓
MICH −2.9
–
–
Final
#8Notre Damevs#3Ohio State
31%
69%
28
44
✓
OSU −7.2
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
#4StanfordvsIowa
73%
27%
45
16
✓
STAN −10.3
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
Oklahoma Statevs#9Ole Miss
35%
65%
20
48
✓
MISS −5.6
–
–

Sat, Jan 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Penn Statevs#24Georgia
33%
67%
17
24
✓
UGA −6.5
–
–

Afternoon 2 games

Final
Kansas Statevs#19Arkansas
24%
76%
23
45
✓
ARK −11.0
–
–
Final
#17Oregonvs#12TCU
44%
56%
41
47
✓
TCU −2.1
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
#25West VirginiavsArizona State
60%
40%
43
42
✓
WVU −4.6
–
–

Mon, Jan 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#2Alabamavs#5Clemson
61%
39%
45
40
✓
ALA −4.8
–
–