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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 2 slate, 2015

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 76 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 1

Chaos 55

Wilder than 55% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 12.2 expected

  • Biggest shockToledo over Arkansas8.9% chance · won 16-12
  • Runner-upWashington State over Rutgers17% chance · won 37-34
  • Runner-upHouston over Louisville23% chance · won 34-31

Upsets

Fri, Sep 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Utah State@#25Utah
6.9%
93%
14
24
✓
UTAH −22.6
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Louisiana Tech@Western Kentucky
36%
64%
38
41
✓
WKU −5.0
–
–

Sat, Sep 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 11 games

Final
USF@#8Florida State
1.6%
98%
14
34
✓
FSU −33.2
–
–
Final
Houston@LouisvilleUpset
23%
77%
34
31
✗
LOU −10.7
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Michigan
13%
87%
7
35
✓
MICH −16.9
–
–
Final
Army@UConn
43%
57%
17
22
✓
CONN −2.3
–
–
Final
Kansas State@UTSA
68%
32%
30
3
✓
KSU −7.5
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Maryland
27%
73%
48
27
✗
MD −9.0
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Penn State
20%
80%
14
27
✓
PSU −12.6
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Wisconsin
2.5%
98%
0
58
✓
WIS −30.4
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@#17Clemson
6.5%
94%
10
41
✓
CLEM −23.1
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Syracuse
16%
84%
17
30
✓
SYR −15.1
–
–
Final
UMass@Colorado
21%
79%
14
48
✓
COLO −12.0
–
–

Afternoon 16 games

Final
UTEP@Texas Tech
7.5%
92%
20
69
✓
TTU −22.0
–
–
Final
Fresno State@#20Ole Miss
3.8%
96%
21
73
✓
MISS −27.3
–
–
Final
#4Georgia@Vanderbilt
86%
14%
31
14
✓
UGA −17.5
–
–
Final
Tulane@Georgia Tech
4.3%
96%
10
65
✓
GT −26.3
–
–
Final
#6Notre Dame@Virginia
75%
25%
34
27
✓
ND −11.1
–
–
Final
Washington State@RutgersUpset
17%
83%
37
34
✗
RUTG −14.4
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Colorado State
53%
47%
23
20
✓
MINN −1.8
–
–
Final
Hawaii@#1Ohio State
0.6%
99%
0
38
✓
OSU −39.6
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@#2Alabama
2.9%
97%
10
37
✓
ALA −29.2
–
–
Final
Toledo@#14ArkansasUpset
8.9%
91%
16
12
✗
ARK −20.5
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Wyoming
39%
61%
48
29
✗
WYO −4.0
–
–
Final
Iowa@Iowa State
40%
60%
31
17
✗
ISU −3.4
–
–
Final
San Diego State@California
27%
73%
7
35
✓
CAL −8.8
–
–
Final
#5Oklahoma@#11Tennessee
41%
59%
31
24
✗
TENN −2.8
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Akron
69%
31%
24
7
✓
PITT −8.1
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Georgia Southern
52%
48%
17
43
✗
WMU −1.2
–
–

Prime time 9 games

Final
Missouri@Arkansas State
62%
38%
27
20
✓
MIZ −5.3
–
–
Final
East Carolina@#22Florida
4.9%
95%
24
31
✓
FLA −25.3
–
–
Final
Ball State@#12Texas A&M
1.1%
99%
23
56
✓
TA&M −35.4
–
–
Final
#24Arizona@Nevada
82%
18%
44
20
✓
ARIZ −14.6
–
–
Final
Memphis@Kansas
88%
12%
55
23
✓
MEM −19.0
–
–
Final
Marshall@OhioUpset
76%
24%
10
21
✗
MRSH −11.4
–
–
Final
North Texas@SMU
53%
46%
13
31
✗
UNT −1.9
–
–
Final
Kentucky@South Carolina
27%
73%
26
22
✗
SC −9.0
–
–
Final
#18LSU@#19Mississippi State
39%
61%
21
19
✗
MSST −4.0
–
–

Late night 4 games

Final
San Jose State@Air Force
20%
80%
16
37
✓
AF −12.5
–
–
Final
Boise State@BYU
38%
62%
24
35
✓
BYU −4.2
–
–
Final
#13UCLA@UNLV
95%
4.9%
37
3
✓
UCLA −26.2
–
–
Final
UCF@#21Stanford
9.4%
91%
7
31
✓
STAN −20.0
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Miami (FL)@Florida Atlantic
74%
26%
44
20
✓
MIA −10.6
–
–

Sun, Sep 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 8 games

Final
Idaho@#3USC
<0.1%
>99%
9
59
✓
USC −58.5
–
–
Final
#15Oregon@#10Michigan State
34%
66%
28
31
✓
MSU −5.9
–
–
Final
Rice@Texas
21%
79%
28
42
✓
TEX −11.9
–
–
Final
FIU@Indiana
43%
57%
22
36
✓
IU −2.4
–
–
Final
South Alabama@Nebraska
3.4%
97%
9
48
✓
NEB −28.2
–
–
Final
Temple@Cincinnati
31%
69%
34
26
✗
CIN −7.0
–
–
Final
Tulsa@New Mexico
30%
70%
40
21
✗
UNM −7.7
–
–
Final
Georgia State@New Mexico State
45%
55%
34
32
✗
NMSU −1.5
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 12 · 12:00 PM ET Jacksonville State at #16 Auburn Auburn −23.6 94%
Sat, Sep 12 · 11:00 PM ET Cal Poly at Arizona State Arizona State −42.4 >99%
Sat, Sep 12 · 1:00 PM ET Howard at Boston College Boston College −42.7 >99%
Sat, Sep 12 · 6:00 PM ET North Carolina Central at Duke Duke −45.6 >99%
Sat, Sep 12 · 6:00 PM ET North Carolina A&T at North Carolina North Carolina −32.7 98%
Sat, Sep 12 · 6:00 PM ET Eastern Kentucky at NC State NC State −39.6 >99%
Sat, Sep 12 · 3:30 PM ET Furman at Virginia Tech Virginia Tech −42.7 >99%
Sat, Sep 12 · 2:00 PM ET Sacramento State at Washington Washington −22.6 93%
Sat, Sep 12 · 7:30 PM ET Lamar at #7 Baylor Baylor −55.1 >99%
Sat, Sep 12 · 7:30 PM ET Central Arkansas at Oklahoma State Oklahoma State −39.3 99%
Sat, Sep 12 · 3:30 PM ET Stephen F. Austin at #9 TCU TCU −54.9 >99%
Sat, Sep 12 · 3:00 PM ET Liberty at #23 West Virginia West Virginia −19.6 90%
Sat, Sep 12 · 12:00 PM ET Western Illinois at Illinois Illinois −37.6 99%
Sat, Sep 12 · 4:00 PM ET Eastern Illinois at Northwestern Northwestern −34.1 99%
Sat, Sep 12 · 12:00 PM ET Indiana State at Purdue Purdue −26.0 96%
Sat, Sep 12 · 12:00 PM ET Presbyterian at Charlotte Charlotte −28.3 97%
Sat, Sep 12 · 7:15 PM ET Norfolk State at Old Dominion Old Dominion −36.7 99%
Sat, Sep 12 · 3:30 PM ET Austin Peay at Southern Miss Southern Miss −29.9 97%
Sat, Sep 12 · 6:00 PM ET Delaware State at Kent State Kent State −13.1 81%
Sat, Sep 12 · 3:00 PM ET Monmouth at Central Michigan Central Michigan −19.7 90%
Sat, Sep 12 · 3:30 PM ET Murray State at Northern Illinois Northern Illinois −36.1 99%
Sat, Sep 12 · 7:00 PM ET Northwestern State at Louisiana Louisiana −29.0 97%
Sat, Sep 12 · 7:00 PM ET Nicholls at Louisiana-Monroe Louisiana-Monroe −27.8 96%
Sat, Sep 12 · 7:00 PM ET Prairie View A&M at Texas State Texas State −17.6 88%
Sat, Sep 12 · 7:00 PM ET Charleston Southern at Troy Troy −22.7 93%