The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 7 slate, 2015

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 57 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 29

Wilder than 29% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 16.4 expected

  • Biggest shockIdaho over Troy19% chance · won 19-16
  • Runner-upWyoming over Nevada22% chance · won 28-21
  • Runner-upGeorgia State over Ball State24% chance · won 31-19

Upsets

Wed, Oct 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Arkansas State@South Alabama
72%
28%
49
31
✓
ARST −9.3
–
–

Thu, Oct 15

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Auburn@Kentucky
61%
39%
30
27
✓
AUB −4.7
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@North Texas
98%
2.2%
55
28
✓
WKU −33.2
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
#16UCLA@#5Stanford
35%
65%
35
56
✓
STAN −6.4
–
–

Fri, Oct 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Houston@Tulane
91%
9.3%
42
7
✓
HOU −21.8
–
–
Final
#21Boise State@Utah StateUpset
75%
25%
26
52
✗
BOIS −11.3
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
UNLV@Fresno State
64%
36%
28
31
✗
UNLV −5.9
–
–

Sat, Oct 17

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 16 games

Final
#18Ole Miss@MemphisUpset
60%
40%
24
37
✗
MISS −4.2
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@#20Mississippi State
20%
80%
20
45
✓
MSST −14.2
–
–
Final
Louisville@#19Florida State
29%
71%
21
41
✓
FSU −9.1
–
–
Final
#23West Virginia@#3Baylor
24%
76%
38
62
✓
BAY −12.0
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@Kansas
95%
4.7%
30
20
✓
TTU −27.6
–
–
Final
Iowa@Northwestern
44%
56%
40
10
✗
NU −2.6
–
–
Final
Purdue@Wisconsin
8.1%
92%
7
24
✓
WIS −23.2
–
–
Final
Marshall@Florida Atlantic
75%
25%
33
17
✓
MRSH −11.2
–
–
Final
FIU@Middle Tennessee
24%
76%
34
42
✓
MTSU −12.1
–
–
Final
USF@UConn
50%
50%
28
20
✗
CONN −0.2
–
–
Final
Tulsa@East Carolina
38%
62%
17
30
✓
ECU −5.4
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Ohio
41%
59%
49
14
✗
OHIO −4.1
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Toledo
2.6%
97%
20
63
✓
TOL −32.4
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Georgia Tech
40%
60%
31
28
✗
GT −4.5
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Central Michigan
45%
55%
14
51
✓
CMU −2.1
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Miami (OH)
85%
15%
45
12
✓
NIU −17.2
–
–

Afternoon 17 games

Final
Georgia State@Ball StateUpset
24%
76%
31
19
✗
BALL −12.0
–
–
Final
Akron@Bowling Green
28%
72%
10
59
✓
BGSU −10.0
–
–
Final
#1Alabama@#9Texas A&M
59%
41%
41
23
✓
ALA −3.6
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Miami (FL)
46%
54%
20
30
✓
MIA −1.7
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Virginia
47%
53%
38
44
✓
UVA −1.4
–
–
Final
#8Oklahoma@Kansas State
72%
28%
55
0
✓
OU −9.7
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Indiana
48%
52%
55
52
✗
IU −1.1
–
–
Final
#22Michigan State@#6Michigan
29%
71%
27
23
✗
MICH −9.2
–
–
Final
Nebraska@Minnesota
63%
37%
48
25
✓
NEB −5.2
–
–
Final
Charlotte@Old Dominion
36%
64%
34
37
✓
ODU −6.3
–
–
Final
Air Force@Colorado State
56%
44%
23
38
✗
AF −2.4
–
–
Final
Kent State@UMass
45%
55%
15
10
✗
MASS −2.2
–
–
Final
Idaho@TroyUpset
19%
81%
19
16
✗
TROY −14.6
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@South Carolina
40%
60%
10
19
✓
SC −4.3
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Washington State
34%
66%
31
52
✓
WSU −7.0
–
–
Final
Nevada@WyomingUpset
78%
22%
21
28
✗
NEV −12.9
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Georgia Southern
5.7%
94%
26
56
✓
GASO −26.3
–
–

Prime time 11 games

Final
#13Florida@#10LSU
39%
61%
28
35
✓
LSU −4.7
–
–
Final
Boston College@#7Clemson
6.8%
93%
17
34
✓
CLEM −24.8
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@North Carolina
9.0%
91%
14
50
✓
UNC −22.3
–
–
Final
#12TCU@Iowa State
89%
11%
45
21
✓
TCU −19.9
–
–
Final
UTSA@Southern Miss
34%
66%
10
32
✓
USM −6.9
–
–
Final
Hawaii@New Mexico
39%
61%
27
28
✓
UNM −4.8
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@Louisiana-Monroe
74%
26%
59
14
✓
APP −10.8
–
–
Final
Missouri@#15Georgia
18%
82%
6
9
✓
UGA −15.6
–
–
Final
#4USC@#11Notre Dame
49%
51%
31
41
✓
ND −0.5
–
–
Final
UCF@Temple
8.6%
91%
16
30
✓
TEM −22.8
–
–
Final
Arizona@Colorado
72%
28%
38
31
✓
ARIZ −9.5
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
Arizona State@#14Utah
27%
73%
18
34
✓
UTAH −10.4
–
–
Final
Oregon@#24WashingtonUpset
36%
64%
26
20
✗
WASH −6.1
–
–
Final
San Diego State@San Jose State
54%
46%
30
7
✓
SDSU −1.4
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Cincinnati@BYU
31%
69%
24
38
✓
BYU −8.2
–
–

Sun, Oct 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Penn State@#2Ohio State
17%
83%
10
38
✓
OSU −16.2
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 PM ET Bucknell at Army Army −11.9 76%