The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 3 slate, 2015

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 69 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 67

Wilder than 67% of weeks in the archive.

12 upsets against 12.2 expected

  • Biggest shockFurman over UCF1.0% chance · won 16-15
  • Runner-upSouth Alabama over San Diego State13% chance · won 34-27
  • Runner-upOle Miss over Alabama22% chance · won 43-37

Upsets

Thu, Sep 17

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#13Clemson@Louisville
66%
34%
20
17
✓
CLEM −7.0
–
–

Fri, Sep 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Late night 1 game

Final
New Mexico@Arizona State
14%
86%
10
34
✓
ASU −16.2
–
–

Sat, Sep 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 14 games

Final
UConn@Missouri
3.9%
96%
6
9
✓
MIZ −27.2
–
–
Final
Nevada@#14Texas A&M
2.0%
98%
27
44
✓
TA&M −31.7
–
–
Final
Illinois@North Carolina
31%
69%
14
48
✓
UNC −7.0
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Army
54%
46%
17
14
✓
WAKE −1.9
–
–
Final
Tulsa@#5Oklahoma
3.0%
97%
38
52
✓
OU −29.0
–
–
Final
USF@Maryland
28%
72%
17
35
✓
MD −8.7
–
–
Final
UNLV@Michigan
2.9%
97%
7
28
✓
MICH −29.2
–
–
Final
Air Force@#11Michigan State
8.9%
91%
21
35
✓
MSU −20.5
–
–
Final
Kent State@Minnesota
5.7%
94%
7
10
✓
MINN −24.2
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Florida Atlantic
48%
52%
33
15
✗
FAU −0.4
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Duke
38%
62%
19
10
✗
DUKE −4.2
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Syracuse
22%
78%
27
30
✓
SYR −11.4
–
–
Final
Georgia State@#15Oregon
0.7%
99%
28
61
✓
ORE −38.3
–
–
Final
Rice@North Texas
64%
36%
38
24
✓
RICE −5.8
–
–

Afternoon 16 games

Final
Louisiana Tech@Kansas State
23%
77%
33
39
✓
KSU −11.0
–
–
Final
Memphis@Bowling Green
68%
32%
44
41
✓
MEM −7.8
–
–
Final
Temple@UMass
88%
12%
25
23
✓
TEM −18.4
–
–
Final
Ball State@Eastern Michigan
43%
57%
28
17
✗
EMU −2.2
–
–
Final
#21Auburn@#6LSU
26%
74%
21
45
✓
LSU −9.7
–
–
Final
#24Georgia Tech@#8Notre Dame
25%
75%
22
30
✓
ND −9.9
–
–
Final
#25Nebraska@Miami (FL)Upset
43%
57%
33
36
✓
MIA −2.1
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Purdue
74%
26%
51
24
✓
VT −10.5
–
–
Final
UTSA@Oklahoma State
8.6%
91%
14
69
✓
OKST −20.8
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@#1Ohio State
0.9%
99%
13
20
✓
OSU −37.1
–
–
Final
Troy@#23Wisconsin
2.1%
98%
3
28
✓
WIS −31.5
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Miami (OH)
87%
13%
37
33
✓
CIN −17.7
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Navy
22%
78%
21
45
✓
NAVY −11.5
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@Indiana
63%
37%
35
38
✗
WKU −5.4
–
–
Final
Utah State@Washington
9.0%
91%
17
31
✓
WASH −20.4
–
–
Final
South Carolina@#4Georgia
11%
89%
20
52
✓
UGA −18.5
–
–

Prime time 9 games

Final
Texas Tech@#22ArkansasUpset
26%
74%
35
24
✗
ARK −9.6
–
–
Final
NC State@Old Dominion
87%
13%
38
14
✓
NCSU −17.8
–
–
Final
ColoradovsColorado State
53%
47%
27
24
✓
COLO −1.6
–
–
Final
Charlotte@Middle Tennessee
8.7%
91%
14
73
✓
MTSU −20.7
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Texas State
32%
68%
56
50
✗
TXST −6.5
–
–
Final
Florida@Kentucky
55%
45%
14
9
✓
FLA −2.4
–
–
Final
California@Texas
46%
54%
45
44
✗
TEX −1.0
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Washington State
10%
90%
14
31
✓
WSU −19.1
–
–
Final
#12Ole Miss@#2AlabamaUpset
22%
78%
43
37
✗
ALA −11.5
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
BYU@#7UCLA
18%
82%
23
24
✓
UCLA −13.8
–
–
Final
Utah@Fresno State
87%
13%
45
24
✓
UTAH −17.8
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#9Florida State@Boston College
86%
14%
14
0
✓
FSU −17.0
–
–

Sun, Sep 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 8 games

Final
Pittsburgh@Iowa
42%
58%
24
27
✓
IOWA −2.6
–
–
Final
#18Stanford@#3USCUpset
24%
76%
41
31
✗
USC −10.2
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Oregon State
28%
72%
21
35
✓
ORST −8.5
–
–
Final
SMU@#16TCU
2.2%
98%
37
56
✓
TCU −31.0
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Toledo
20%
80%
23
30
✓
TOL −12.3
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Penn State
23%
77%
3
28
✓
PSU −10.8
–
–
Final
UTEP@New Mexico State
46%
54%
50
47
✗
NMSU −0.8
–
–
Final
South Alabama@San Diego StateUpset
13%
87%
34
27
✗
SDSU −17.3
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 19 · 4:00 PM ET Northwestern State at #19 Mississippi State Mississippi State −55.4 >99%
Sat, Sep 19 · 7:00 PM ET Western Carolina at #10 Tennessee Tennessee −50.6 >99%
Sat, Sep 19 · 4:00 PM ET Austin Peay at Vanderbilt Vanderbilt −50.1 >99%
Sat, Sep 19 · 3:30 PM ET William & Mary at Virginia Virginia −35.6 99%
Sat, Sep 19 · 11:00 PM ET Northern Arizona at Arizona Arizona −47.9 >99%
Sat, Sep 19 · 6:00 PM ET North Carolina Central at FIU FIU −35.0 99%
Sat, Sep 19 · 3:30 PM ET Norfolk State at Marshall Marshall −51.3 >99%
Sun, Sep 20 · TBD Maine at Tulane Tulane −23.8 94%
Sat, Sep 19 · 6:00 PM ET Furman at UCF UCF −36.0 99%
Fri, Sep 18 · 9:00 PM ET Idaho State at Boise State Boise State −41.8 >99%
Sat, Sep 19 · 11:59 PM ET UC Davis vs Hawaii Hawaii −32.4 98%
Sat, Sep 19 · 2:00 PM ET SE Louisiana at Ohio Ohio −33.8 98%
Sat, Sep 19 · 12:00 PM ET Savannah State at Akron Akron −38.6 99%
Sat, Sep 19 · 7:00 PM ET Murray State at Western Michigan Western Michigan −42.8 >99%
Sat, Sep 19 · 7:00 PM ET Missouri State at Arkansas State Arkansas State −11.8 79%
Sat, Sep 19 · 6:00 PM ET The Citadel at Georgia Southern Georgia Southern −34.9 99%
Sat, Sep 19 · 5:00 PM ET Wofford at Idaho Idaho −6.0 66%