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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 13 slate, 2015

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 62 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 12

Wilder than 12% of weeks in the archive.

13 upsets against 18.1 expected

  • Biggest shockOhio over Northern Illinois19% chance · won 26-21
  • Runner-upUMass over Buffalo23% chance · won 31-26
  • Runner-upWestern Michigan over Toledo24% chance · won 35-30

Upsets

Tue, Nov 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Ohio@Northern IllinoisUpset
19%
81%
26
21
✗
NIU −13.3
–
–

Wed, Nov 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Bowling Green@Ball State
90%
10%
48
10
✓
BGSU −20.6
–
–

Thu, Nov 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Texas Tech@Texas
51%
49%
48
45
✓
TTU −1.0
–
–
Final
USF@UCF
88%
12%
44
3
✓
USF −19.0
–
–

Fri, Nov 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 8 games

Final
Miami (FL)@Pittsburgh
35%
65%
29
24
✗
PITT −5.5
–
–
Final
Marshall@Western Kentucky
32%
68%
28
49
✓
WKU −7.0
–
–
Final
#25Navy@HoustonUpset
47%
53%
31
52
✓
HOU −0.6
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@ToledoUpset
24%
76%
35
30
✗
TOL −10.6
–
–
Final
Kent State@Akron
21%
79%
0
20
✓
AKR −12.5
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Central Michigan
4.0%
96%
28
35
✓
CMU −27.8
–
–
Final
Troy@Georgia State
49%
51%
21
31
✓
PK
–
–
Final
Missouri@#23Arkansas
20%
80%
3
28
✓
ARK −13.2
–
–

Afternoon 5 games

Final
Washington State@Washington
29%
71%
10
45
✓
WASH −8.2
–
–
Final
Iowa@Nebraska
46%
54%
28
20
✗
NEB −1.1
–
–
Final
Boise State@San Jose State
75%
25%
40
23
✓
BOIS −11.4
–
–
Final
Oregon State@#17Oregon
3.0%
97%
42
52
✓
ORE −29.8
–
–
Final
UMass@BuffaloUpset
23%
77%
31
26
✗
BUF −11.3
–
–

Prime time 2 games

Final
#5Baylor@#12TCU
54%
46%
21
28
✗
BAY −2.0
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Tulane
69%
31%
45
34
✓
TLSA −8.6
–
–

Sat, Nov 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 19 games

Final
#24Georgia@Georgia Tech
61%
39%
13
7
✓
UGA −4.8
–
–
Final
Louisville@Kentucky
62%
38%
38
24
✓
LOU −5.1
–
–
Final
#4Clemson@South Carolina
88%
12%
37
32
✓
CLEM −19.1
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Virginia
64%
36%
23
20
✓
VT −6.3
–
–
Final
Iowa State@West Virginia
16%
84%
6
30
✓
WVU −15.8
–
–
Final
#3Ohio State@#8Michigan
58%
42%
42
13
✓
OSU −3.8
–
–
Final
Indiana@Purdue
55%
45%
54
36
✓
IU −2.5
–
–
Final
Maryland@Rutgers
45%
55%
46
41
✗
RUTG −1.5
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Louisiana Tech
35%
65%
58
24
✗
LT −5.7
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Old Dominion
65%
35%
33
31
✓
FAU −6.6
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@East Carolina
51%
49%
19
16
✓
CIN −1.0
–
–
Final
SMU@Memphis
5.1%
95%
0
63
✓
MEM −25.8
–
–
Final
Boston College@Syracuse
44%
56%
17
20
✓
SYR −1.7
–
–
Final
Duke@Wake Forest
69%
31%
27
21
✓
DUKE −8.3
–
–
Final
UNLV@Wyoming
62%
38%
28
35
✗
UNLV −5.5
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Appalachian State
13%
87%
7
28
✓
APP −17.9
–
–
Final
South Alabama@Georgia Southern
6.8%
93%
17
55
✓
GASO −23.5
–
–
Final
Colorado@#22Utah
9.1%
91%
14
20
✓
UTAH −20.9
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@UTSA
72%
28%
42
7
✓
MTSU −9.6
–
–

Afternoon 13 games

Final
#1Alabama@Auburn
80%
20%
29
13
✓
ALA −13.9
–
–
Final
#13North Carolina@NC State
65%
35%
45
34
✓
UNC −6.5
–
–
Final
#20UCLA@#9USC
36%
64%
21
40
✓
USC −5.3
–
–
Final
NorthwesternvsIllinois
62%
38%
24
14
✓
NU −5.4
–
–
Final
Penn State@#10Michigan State
22%
78%
16
55
✓
MSU −11.8
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@Minnesota
68%
32%
31
21
✓
WIS −7.9
–
–
Final
UTEP@North Texas
53%
47%
20
17
✓
UTEP −1.7
–
–
Final
Charlotte@Rice
18%
82%
7
27
✓
RICE −14.0
–
–
Final
BYU@Utah State
61%
39%
51
28
✓
BYU −4.8
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@#14Tennessee
9.0%
91%
28
53
✓
TENN −21.1
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Kansas
87%
13%
45
14
✓
KSU −18.8
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@New Mexico State
88%
12%
52
28
✓
ARST −19.4
–
–
Final
Texas State@Idaho
62%
38%
31
38
✗
TXST −5.3
–
–

Prime time 6 games

Final
#11Ole Miss@#18Mississippi State
45%
55%
38
27
✗
MSST −1.4
–
–
Final
#15Florida State@#19Florida
44%
56%
27
2
✗
FLA −1.8
–
–
Final
Texas A&M@#16LSU
34%
66%
7
19
✓
LSU −6.2
–
–
Final
#7Notre Dame@#6Stanford
37%
63%
36
38
✓
STAN −5.0
–
–
Final
#2Oklahoma@#21Oklahoma State
69%
31%
58
23
✓
OU −8.4
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Fresno State
71%
29%
34
31
✓
CSU −9.4
–
–

Late night 4 games

Final
Arizona State@California
38%
62%
46
48
✓
CAL −4.3
–
–
Final
Air Force@New Mexico
74%
26%
35
47
✗
AF −10.5
–
–
Final
Nevada@San Diego State
15%
85%
14
31
✓
SDSU −16.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Hawaii
39%
61%
26
28
✓
HAW −4.1
–
–

Sun, Nov 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
UConn@Temple
15%
85%
3
27
✓
TEM −15.8
–
–