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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 6 slate, 2015

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 56 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 39

Wilder than 39% of weeks in the archive.

10 upsets against 14.0 expected

  • Biggest shockWashington State over Oregon10% chance · won 45-38
  • Runner-upTexas over Oklahoma11% chance · won 24-17
  • Runner-upWashington over USC17% chance · won 17-12

Upsets

Thu, Oct 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Washington@#2USCUpset
17%
83%
17
12
✗
USC −15.9
–
–

Fri, Oct 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Southern Miss@Marshall
32%
68%
10
31
✓
MRSH −7.8
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
SMU@Houston
7.0%
93%
28
49
✓
HOU −24.5
–
–

Sat, Oct 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 15 games

Final
New Mexico State@#19Ole Miss
1.0%
99%
3
52
✓
MISS −38.8
–
–
Final
Duke@Army
83%
17%
44
3
✓
DUKE −15.6
–
–
Final
#5Baylor@Kansas
99%
1.3%
66
7
✓
BAY −36.9
–
–
Final
#4OklahomavsTexasUpset
89%
11%
17
24
✗
OU −20.6
–
–
Final
Illinois@Iowa
31%
69%
20
29
✓
IOWA −8.5
–
–
Final
Maryland@#3Ohio State
3.0%
97%
28
49
✓
OSU −31.3
–
–
Final
Indiana@Penn State
22%
78%
7
29
✓
PSU −13.0
–
–
Final
UTEP@FIU
30%
70%
12
52
✓
FIU −8.8
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Western Kentucky
32%
68%
28
58
✓
WKU −7.7
–
–
Final
Tulane@Temple
13%
87%
10
49
✓
TEM −18.6
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Western Michigan
47%
53%
39
41
✓
WMU −1.3
–
–
Final
Virginia@Pittsburgh
23%
77%
19
26
✓
PITT −12.3
–
–
Final
UMass@Bowling Green
15%
85%
38
62
✓
BGSU −17.6
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Ohio
17%
83%
3
34
✓
OHIO −16.1
–
–
Final
Rice@Florida Atlantic
48%
52%
27
26
✗
FAU −1.0
–
–

Afternoon 19 games

Final
Wake Forest@Boston College
26%
74%
3
0
✗
BC −10.6
–
–
Final
Kent State@Toledo
7.0%
93%
7
38
✓
TOL −24.6
–
–
Final
Akron@Eastern Michigan
70%
30%
47
21
✓
AKR −8.5
–
–
Final
South Carolina@#7LSU
12%
88%
24
45
✓
LSU −19.3
–
–
Final
#11Georgia@#18Tennessee
49%
51%
31
38
✓
TENN −0.5
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@#9Clemson
24%
76%
24
43
✓
CLEM −11.8
–
–
Final
Syracuse@USF
73%
27%
24
45
✗
SYR −10.0
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Texas Tech
24%
76%
31
66
✓
TTU −11.8
–
–
Final
Northwestern@#12Michigan
26%
74%
0
38
✓
MICH −10.8
–
–
Final
#24Wisconsin@Nebraska
51%
49%
23
21
✓
WIS −0.2
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Purdue
56%
44%
41
13
✓
MINN −2.5
–
–
Final
Navy@#13Notre Dame
24%
76%
24
41
✓
ND −12.1
–
–
Final
Ball State@Northern Illinois
27%
73%
41
59
✓
NIU −10.5
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@Georgia State
81%
19%
37
3
✓
APP −14.7
–
–
Final
UConn@UCF
41%
59%
40
13
✗
UCF −4.0
–
–
Final
Troy@#22Mississippi State
2.4%
98%
17
45
✓
MSST −32.8
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Arizona
26%
74%
7
44
✓
ARIZ −11.0
–
–
Final
Washington State@#23OregonUpset
10%
90%
45
38
✗
ORE −20.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Tulsa
26%
74%
24
34
✓
TLSA −10.6
–
–

Prime time 10 games

Final
#25Arkansas@#1Alabama
16%
84%
14
27
✓
ALA −16.7
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@#21West VirginiaUpset
32%
68%
33
26
✗
WVU −7.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@UTSA
78%
22%
34
31
✓
LT −12.8
–
–
Final
Boise State@Colorado State
81%
19%
41
10
✓
BOIS −14.4
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Nevada
43%
57%
17
35
✓
NEV −2.9
–
–
Final
Texas State@Louisiana
44%
56%
27
49
✓
UL −2.7
–
–
Final
#15Florida@Missouri
71%
29%
21
3
✓
FLA −9.2
–
–
Final
#10TCU@Kansas State
69%
31%
52
45
✓
TCU −8.1
–
–
Final
East Carolina@BYU
25%
75%
38
45
✓
BYU −11.4
–
–
Final
San Jose State@UNLV
45%
55%
33
27
✗
UNLV −2.1
–
–

Late night 5 games

Final
Colorado@Arizona State
23%
77%
23
48
✓
ASU −12.4
–
–
Final
California@#14Utah
25%
75%
24
30
✓
UTAH −11.2
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Air Force
6.5%
94%
17
31
✓
AF −25.2
–
–
Final
Utah State@Fresno State
72%
28%
56
14
✓
USU −9.6
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Hawaii
59%
41%
28
14
✓
SDSU −3.6
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
NC State@Virginia Tech
47%
53%
13
28
✓
VT −1.3
–
–

Sun, Oct 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Miami (FL)@#17Florida State
26%
74%
24
29
✓
FSU −10.8
–
–
Final
#20Michigan State@Rutgers
84%
16%
31
24
✓
MSU −16.1
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 10 · 5:00 PM ET Portland State at North Texas North Texas −13.8 80%