Week 1 slate, 2015

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 85 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 84

Wilder than 84% of weeks in the archive.

12 upsets against 11.9 expected

Biggest shockPortland State over Washington State1.4% chance · won 24-17
Runner-upSouth Dakota State over Kansas4.2% chance · won 41-38
Runner-upFordham over Army6.1% chance · won 37-35

Upsets

FIU 15, UCF 14FIU won; the model gave them 20% before kickoff
Stanford 6, Northwestern 16Northwestern won; the model gave them 24% before kickoff
BYU 33, Nebraska 28#23 Nebraska lost to unranked BYU

Thu, Sep 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 2 games

Final

North Carolinavs

South Carolina

48%
52%

13
17

✓

SC −0.1

–

Final

FIU@

UCFUpset

20%
80%

15
14

✗

UCF −12.5

–

Prime time 5 games

Final

Oklahoma State@

Central Michigan

68%
32%

24
13

✓

OKST −7.9

–

Final

Michigan@

Utah

42%
58%

17
24

✓

UTAH −2.5

–

Final

#5TCU@

Minnesota

72%
28%

23
17

✓

TCU −9.7

–

Final

Ohio@Idaho

81%
19%

45
28

✓

OHIO −14.2

–

Final

Duke@

Tulane

67%
33%

37
7

✓

DUKE −7.4

–

Late night 1 game

Final

UTSA@

#22Arizona

8.5%
92%

32
42

✓

ARIZ −20.9

–

Fri, Sep 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final

Colorado@

Hawaii

60%
40%

20
28

✗

COLO −4.6

–

Afternoon 1 game

Final

Charlotte@

Georgia State

33%
67%

23
20

✗

GAST −6.2

–

Prime time 2 games

Final

#9Michigan State@

Western Michigan

75%
25%

37
24

✓

MSU −10.9

–

Final

#12Baylor@

SMU

89%
11%

56
21

✓

BAY −19.3

–

Late night 1 game

Final

Washington@

Boise State

43%
57%

13
16

✓

BOIS −2.0

–

Time TBD 1 game

Final

Western Kentucky@

Vanderbilt

41%
59%

14
12

✗

VAN −3.0

–

Sat, Sep 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 3 games

Final

Louisiana-Monroe@

#4Georgia

4.7%
95%

14
51

✓

UGA −25.8

–

Final

#8Stanford@

NorthwesternUpset

76%
24%

6
16

✗

STAN −11.5

–

Final

Kent State@

Illinois

21%
79%

3
52

✓

ILL −11.9

–

Afternoon 9 games

Final

UTEP@

#16Arkansas

4.9%
95%

13
48

✓

ARK −25.4

–

Final

Louisvillevs

#19Auburn

37%
63%

24
31

✓

AUB −4.6

–

Final

Virginia@

#13UCLA

21%
79%

16
34

✓

UCLA −11.9

–

Final

BYU@

#23NebraskaUpset

26%
74%

33
28

✗

NEB −9.6

–

Final

Penn State@

Temple

67%
33%

10
27

✗

PSU −7.4

–

Final

Old Dominion@

Eastern Michigan

49%
51%

38
34

✗

ODU −0.2

–

Final

Florida Atlantic@

Tulsa

44%
56%

44
47

✓

TLSA −1.8

–

Final

Bowling Greenvs

#15Tennessee

17%
83%

30
59

✓

TENN −14.4

–

Final

Troy@

NC State

14%
86%

21
49

✓

NCSU −16.6

–

Prime time 8 games

Final

Louisiana@

Kentucky

28%
72%

33
40

✓

UK −8.5

–

Final

#24Arizona Statevs

#20Texas A&M

45%
55%

17
38

✓

TA&M −1.3

–

Final

Akron@

#10Oklahoma

5.7%
94%

3
41

✓

OU −24.2

–

Final

New Mexico State@

Florida

4.3%
96%

13
61

✓

FLA −26.3

–

Final

Texas@

#21Notre Dame

34%
66%

3
38

✓

ND −5.9

–

Final

Georgia Southern@

West Virginia

32%
68%

0
44

✓

WVU −6.9

–

Final

UNLV@

Northern Illinois

21%
79%

30
38

✓

NIU −12.1

–

Final

Texas State@

#17Florida State

9.7%
90%

16
59

✓

FSU −19.7

–

Late night 2 games

Final

#18Mississippi State@

Southern Miss

86%
14%

34
16

✓

MSST −16.9

–

Final

Arkansas State@

#6USC

11%
89%

6
55

✓

USC −18.3

–

Sun, Sep 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final

Purdue@

Marshall

21%
79%

31
41

✓

MRSH −11.9

–

Time TBD 1 game

Final

#25Wisconsinvs

#2Alabama

29%
71%

17
35

✓

ALA −8.1

–

Tue, Sep 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final

#1Ohio State@

Virginia Tech

73%
27%

42
24

✓

OSU −10.1

–

Against FCS opponents

When	Game	Model	Win
Sat, Sep 5 · 4:00 PM ET	Southeast Missouri State at Missouri	Missouri −42.8	>99%
Sat, Sep 5 · 12:00 PM ET	UT Martin at #14 Ole Miss	Ole Miss −47.1	>99%
Sun, Sep 6 · TBD	Eastern Washington at #3 Oregon	Oregon −38.9	99%
Sat, Sep 5 · TBD	Weber State at Oregon State	Oregon State −32.8	98%
Sat, Sep 5 · 2:00 PM ET	Portland State at Washington State	Washington State −34.0	99%
Sat, Sep 5 · 5:00 PM ET	Grambling at California	California −47.1	>99%
Thu, Sep 3 · 7:30 PM ET	Alcorn State at Georgia Tech	Georgia Tech −40.7	>99%
Thu, Sep 3 · 7:00 PM ET	Elon at Wake Forest	Wake Forest −29.1	97%
Sat, Sep 5 · 1:00 PM ET	Maine at Boston College	Boston College −32.0	98%
Sat, Sep 5 · 12:30 PM ET	Wofford at #11 Clemson	Clemson −43.2	>99%
Sat, Sep 5 · 6:00 PM ET	Bethune-Cookman at Miami (FL)	Miami (FL) −32.7	98%
Sat, Sep 5 · 1:00 PM ET	Youngstown State at Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh −35.5	99%
Fri, Sep 4 · 7:00 PM ET	Rhode Island at Syracuse	Syracuse −25.3	95%
Fri, Sep 4 · 7:00 PM ET	Fordham at Army	Army −23.7	94%
Sun, Sep 6 · TBD	Northern Iowa at Iowa State	Iowa State −21.1	92%
Sat, Sep 5 · 12:00 PM ET	South Dakota State at Kansas	Kansas −26.6	96%
Sat, Sep 5 · 7:10 PM ET	South Dakota at Kansas State	Kansas State −34.7	99%
Sat, Sep 5 · 3:30 PM ET	Sam Houston at Texas Tech	Texas Tech −13.2	81%
Sat, Sep 5 · 4:00 PM ET	Southern Illinois at Indiana	Indiana −31.1	98%
Sat, Sep 5 · 12:00 PM ET	Illinois State at Iowa	Iowa −26.3	96%
Sat, Sep 5 · 12:00 PM ET	Richmond at Maryland	Maryland −33.8	98%
Sat, Sep 5 · 12:00 PM ET	Norfolk State vs Rutgers	Rutgers −37.2	99%
Sat, Sep 5 · 7:00 PM ET	Southern at Louisiana Tech	Louisiana Tech −36.9	99%
Sat, Sep 5 · 7:00 PM ET	Jackson State at Middle Tennessee	Middle Tennessee −21.7	92%
Sat, Sep 5 · 4:40 PM ET	Wagner at Rice	Rice −33.8	98%
Thu, Sep 3 · 7:30 PM ET	Villanova at UConn	UConn −19.0	89%
Sat, Sep 5 · 8:45 PM ET	Alabama A&M at Cincinnati	Cincinnati −40.1	>99%
Sat, Sep 5 · 6:00 PM ET	Towson at East Carolina	East Carolina −28.5	97%
Sun, Sep 6 · TBD	Tennessee Tech at Houston	Houston −27.2	96%
Sat, Sep 5 · 7:00 PM ET	Missouri State at Memphis	Memphis −11.1	77%
Sat, Sep 5 · 12:00 PM ET	Colgate at Navy	Navy −35.3	99%
Sat, Sep 5 · 7:00 PM ET	Florida A&M at USF	USF −26.4	96%
Thu, Sep 3 · 10:00 PM ET	UC Davis at Nevada	Nevada −31.2	98%
Thu, Sep 3 · 10:00 PM ET	New Hampshire at San Jose State	San Jose State −26.6	96%
Thu, Sep 3 · 9:00 PM ET	Southern Utah at Utah State	Utah State −28.0	97%
Sat, Sep 5 · 3:30 PM ET	Morgan State at Air Force	Air Force −40.6	>99%
Sat, Sep 5 · 4:00 PM ET	Savannah State vs Colorado State	Colorado State −34.3	99%
Sat, Sep 5 · 8:05 PM ET	Mississippi Valley State at New Mexico	New Mexico −18.6	89%
Sat, Sep 5 · 4:00 PM ET	North Dakota at Wyoming	Wyoming −19.5	90%
Thu, Sep 3 · 7:00 PM ET	VMI at Ball State	Ball State −34.9	99%
Sat, Sep 5 · 3:30 PM ET	UAlbany at Buffalo	Buffalo −19.9	90%
Sat, Sep 5 · 3:30 PM ET	Presbyterian at Miami (OH)	Miami (OH) −25.1	95%
Sat, Sep 5 · 3:30 PM ET	Howard at Appalachian State	Appalachian State −32.1	98%
Sat, Sep 5 · 6:00 PM ET	Gardner-Webb vs South Alabama	South Alabama −27.0	96%
Sun, Sep 6 · TBD	San Diego vs San Diego State	San Diego State −21.5	92%
Thu, Sep 3 · 10:00 PM ET	Abilene Christian at Fresno State	Fresno State −22.2	93%