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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 12 slate, 2015

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 61 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 92

Wilder than 92% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 15.8 expected

  • Biggest shockThe Citadel over South Carolina0.3% chance · won 23-22
  • Runner-upUConn over Houston13% chance · won 20-17
  • Runner-upNew Mexico State over Louisiana17% chance · won 37-34

Upsets

Tue, Nov 17

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Toledo@Bowling Green
38%
62%
44
28
✗
BGSU −4.3
–
–

Wed, Nov 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Central Michigan@Kent State
80%
20%
27
14
✓
CMU −13.9
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Northern Illinois
40%
60%
19
27
✓
NIU −3.4
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Ball State@Ohio
27%
73%
31
48
✓
OHIO −9.1
–
–

Thu, Nov 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
East Carolina@UCF
75%
25%
44
7
✓
ECU −11.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Texas State
31%
69%
3
16
✓
TXST −7.3
–
–

Fri, Nov 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Cincinnati@USF
57%
43%
27
65
✗
CIN −3.1
–
–
Final
Air Force@Boise State
29%
71%
37
30
✗
BOIS −8.4
–
–

Sat, Nov 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 16 games

Final
Florida Atlantic@#12Florida
1.8%
98%
14
20
✓
FLA −33.3
–
–
Final
#11North Carolina@Virginia Tech
64%
36%
30
27
✓
UNC −6.3
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Army
66%
34%
31
21
✓
RUTG −7.2
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Kansas
95%
5.2%
49
0
✓
WVU −26.4
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Kansas State
33%
67%
35
38
✓
KSU −6.4
–
–
Final
Purdue@Iowa
9.7%
90%
20
40
✓
IOWA −20.3
–
–
Final
Indiana@Maryland
38%
62%
47
28
✗
MD −4.3
–
–
Final
Illinois@Minnesota
41%
59%
23
32
✓
MINN −3.0
–
–
Final
#13Michigan@Penn State
63%
37%
28
16
✓
MICH −5.8
–
–
Final
North Texas@Middle Tennessee
7.0%
93%
7
41
✓
MTSU −23.2
–
–
Final
Memphis@Temple
60%
40%
12
31
✗
MEM −4.5
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Miami (FL)
50%
50%
21
38
✓
GT −0.4
–
–
Final
Syracuse@NC State
20%
80%
29
42
✓
NCSU −12.7
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@UMass
29%
71%
20
13
✗
MASS −8.2
–
–
Final
South Alabama@Georgia State
40%
60%
10
24
✓
GAST −3.3
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@FIU
84%
16%
63
7
✓
WKU −16.2
–
–

Afternoon 19 games

Final
Fresno State@BYU
5.9%
94%
10
52
✓
BYU −24.7
–
–
Final
#9LSU@#18Ole Miss
47%
53%
17
38
✓
MISS −0.5
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@#4Clemson
1.7%
98%
13
33
✓
CLEM −33.8
–
–
Final
Duke@Virginia
54%
46%
34
42
✗
DUKE −2.3
–
–
Final
Arizona@Arizona State
38%
62%
37
52
✓
ASU −4.3
–
–
Final
#8USC@#23Oregon
55%
45%
28
48
✗
USC −2.6
–
–
Final
#22UCLA@#19Utah
39%
61%
17
9
✗
UTAH −3.8
–
–
Final
#17Michigan State@#3Ohio StateUpset
22%
78%
17
14
✗
OSU −11.7
–
–
Final
Northwestern@#25WisconsinUpset
21%
79%
13
7
✗
WIS −12.2
–
–
Final
Old Dominion@Southern Miss
7.2%
93%
31
56
✓
USM −23.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@UTEP
92%
7.7%
17
15
✓
LT −23.3
–
–
Final
Houston@UConnUpset
87%
13%
17
20
✗
HOU −18.7
–
–
Final
Nevada@Utah State
22%
78%
27
31
✓
USU −11.7
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Akron
47%
53%
21
42
✓
AKR −0.6
–
–
Final
Louisville@Pittsburgh
41%
59%
34
45
✓
PITT −3.1
–
–
Final
Idaho@Auburn
1.1%
99%
34
56
✓
AUB −36.7
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@LouisianaUpset
18%
82%
37
34
✗
UL −14.5
–
–
Final
Colorado State@New Mexico
53%
47%
28
21
✓
CSU −1.8
–
–
Final
Washington@Oregon State
86%
14%
52
7
✓
WASH −18.0
–
–

Prime time 7 games

Final
#10Tennessee@Missouri
75%
25%
19
8
✓
TENN −11.3
–
–
Final
Charlotte@Kentucky
4.6%
95%
10
58
✓
UK −26.7
–
–
Final
Texas A&M@Vanderbilt
70%
30%
25
0
✓
TA&M −9.1
–
–
Final
Boston Collegevs#7Notre Dame
7.6%
92%
16
19
✓
ND −22.5
–
–
Final
#5Baylor@#20Oklahoma State
57%
43%
45
35
✓
BAY −3.4
–
–
Final
#16TCU@#2Oklahoma
21%
79%
29
30
✓
OU −12.5
–
–
Final
Tulane@SMU
43%
57%
21
49
✓
SMU −2.3
–
–

Late night 4 games

Final
California@#6Stanford
19%
81%
22
35
✓
STAN −13.8
–
–
Final
San Diego State@UNLV
76%
24%
52
14
✓
SDSU −11.9
–
–
Final
Colorado@Washington State
24%
76%
3
27
✓
WSU −10.9
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Hawaii
68%
32%
42
23
✓
SJSU −7.7
–
–

Sun, Nov 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 4 games

Final
#15Mississippi State@#24Arkansas
49%
51%
51
50
✗
ARK −0.1
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@#21Georgia
19%
81%
17
23
✓
UGA −13.6
–
–
Final
Rice@UTSA
45%
55%
24
34
✓
UTSA −1.6
–
–
Final
Navy@Tulsa
81%
19%
44
21
✓
NAVY −14.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 21 · 4:00 PM ET Charleston Southern at #1 Alabama Alabama −72.3 >99%
Sat, Nov 21 · 12:00 PM ET The Citadel at South Carolina South Carolina −43.6 >99%
Sat, Nov 21 · 3:00 PM ET Chattanooga at #14 Florida State Florida State −45.2 >99%