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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 11 slate, 2015

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 59 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 61

Wilder than 61% of weeks in the archive.

16 upsets against 15.4 expected

  • Biggest shockNew Mexico over Boise State5.5% chance · won 31-24
  • Runner-upWashington State over UCLA18% chance · won 31-27
  • Runner-upArkansas over LSU21% chance · won 31-14

Upsets

Tue, Nov 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Kent State@Ohio
29%
71%
0
27
✓
OHIO −8.2
–
–
Final
Toledo@Central Michigan
61%
39%
28
23
✓
TOL −5.0
–
–

Wed, Nov 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Northern Illinois@Buffalo
62%
38%
41
30
✓
NIU −5.2
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Western Michigan
57%
43%
41
27
✓
BGSU −3.1
–
–

Thu, Nov 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Virginia Tech@Georgia Tech
42%
58%
23
21
✗
GT −2.6
–
–
Final
Louisiana@South Alabama
59%
41%
25
32
✗
UL −4.2
–
–

Fri, Nov 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#8USC@Colorado
91%
9.2%
27
24
✓
USC −21.6
–
–

Sat, Nov 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 17 games

Final
#22Georgia@Auburn
49%
51%
20
13
✗
UGA −0.2
–
–
Final
#14Florida@South Carolina
74%
26%
24
14
✓
FLA −10.8
–
–
Final
North Texas@#13Tennessee
0.2%
>99%
0
24
✓
TENN −45.8
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Duke
43%
57%
31
13
✗
DUKE −2.2
–
–
Final
Tulane@Army
38%
62%
34
31
✗
ARMY −4.2
–
–
Final
Kansas@#10TCU
0.5%
>99%
17
23
✓
TCU −41.6
–
–
Final
Texas@West Virginia
30%
70%
20
38
✓
WVU −7.7
–
–
Final
#3Ohio State@Illinois
90%
9.7%
28
3
✓
OSU −21.2
–
–
Final
Maryland@#16Michigan State
8.1%
92%
7
24
✓
MSU −21.9
–
–
Final
Purdue@Northwestern
16%
84%
14
21
✓
NU −15.4
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Florida Atlantic
65%
35%
24
17
✓
MTSU −6.8
–
–
Final
UTEP@Old Dominion
44%
56%
21
31
✓
ODU −2.0
–
–
Final
Akron@Miami (OH)
70%
30%
37
28
✓
AKR −9.1
–
–
Final
NC State@#17Florida State
25%
75%
17
34
✓
FSU −10.5
–
–
Final
Virginia@Louisville
22%
78%
31
38
✓
LOU −11.8
–
–
Final
UTSA@Charlotte
68%
32%
30
27
✓
UTSA −7.8
–
–
Final
Utah State@Air Force
40%
60%
28
35
✓
AF −3.7
–
–

Afternoon 19 games

Final
Washington@Arizona State
58%
42%
17
27
✗
WASH −3.8
–
–
Final
UMass@Eastern Michigan
63%
37%
28
17
✓
MASS −5.9
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Louisiana-Monroe
84%
16%
59
21
✓
ARST −16.3
–
–
Final
#1Alabama@#12Mississippi State
62%
38%
31
6
✓
ALA −5.1
–
–
Final
#4Clemson@Syracuse
93%
6.8%
37
27
✓
CLEM −24.3
–
–
Final
Miami (FL)@#20North Carolina
22%
78%
21
59
✓
UNC −11.9
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@#9Notre Dame
2.1%
98%
7
28
✓
ND −32.4
–
–
Final
#19Oklahoma State@Iowa State
81%
19%
35
31
✓
OKST −14.4
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Texas Tech
36%
64%
44
59
✓
TTU −5.4
–
–
Final
#11Michigan@Indiana
89%
11%
48
41
✓
MICH −20.3
–
–
Final
Nebraska@Rutgers
74%
26%
31
14
✓
NEB −10.8
–
–
Final
FIU@Marshall
17%
83%
0
52
✓
MRSH −14.9
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Rice
62%
38%
65
10
✓
USM −5.3
–
–
Final
SMU@Navy
3.7%
96%
14
55
✓
NAVY −28.4
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@Troy
68%
32%
45
10
✓
GASO −8.2
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Vanderbilt
40%
60%
17
21
✓
VAN −3.6
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Nevada
43%
57%
34
37
✓
NEV −2.3
–
–
Final
Georgia State@Texas State
34%
66%
41
19
✗
TXST −6.2
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@Idaho
93%
7.0%
47
20
✓
APP −24.1
–
–

Prime time 6 games

Final
Arkansas@#7LSUUpset
21%
79%
31
14
✗
LSU −12.2
–
–
Final
#25Oregon@#6StanfordUpset
22%
78%
38
36
✗
STAN −12.0
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Cincinnati
18%
82%
38
49
✓
CIN −13.9
–
–
Final
BYUvsMissouri
59%
41%
16
20
✗
BYU −4.2
–
–
Final
#2Oklahoma@#5Baylor
50%
50%
44
34
✗
OU −0.3
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Iowa
20%
80%
35
40
✓
IOWA −13.1
–
–

Late night 6 games

Final
#15Utah@ArizonaUpset
71%
29%
30
37
✗
UTAH −9.3
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Boise StateUpset
5.5%
94%
31
24
✗
BOIS −25.2
–
–
Final
Oregon State@California
9.3%
91%
24
54
✓
CAL −20.8
–
–
Final
Wyoming@San Diego State
4.9%
95%
3
38
✓
SDSU −26.1
–
–
Final
Washington State@#21UCLAUpset
18%
82%
31
27
✗
UCLA −14.3
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Hawaii
38%
62%
42
14
✗
HAW −4.5
–
–

Sun, Nov 15

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
Memphis@#24Houston
36%
64%
34
35
✓
HOU −5.1
–
–
Final
Temple@USF
66%
34%
23
44
✗
TEM −7.0
–
–
Final
UNLV@Colorado State
31%
69%
35
49
✓
CSU −7.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sun, Nov 15 · TBD Western Carolina at Texas A&M Texas A&M −49.3 >99%