The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 8 slate, 2015

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 56 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 4

Wilder than 4% of weeks in the archive.

9 upsets against 13.7 expected

  • Biggest shockNorthwestern over Nebraska25% chance · won 30-28
  • Runner-upWashington State over Arizona28% chance · won 45-42
  • Runner-upIdaho over Louisiana-Monroe30% chance · won 27-13

Upsets

Wed, Oct 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Louisiana@Arkansas State
28%
72%
27
37
✓
ARST −8.7
–
–

Thu, Oct 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 3 games

Final
Temple@East Carolina
55%
45%
24
14
✓
TEM −2.5
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@Appalachian State
37%
63%
13
31
✓
APP −4.8
–
–
Final
California@#20UCLA
33%
67%
24
40
✓
UCLA −6.5
–
–

Fri, Oct 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Late night 1 game

Final
Utah State@San Diego State
60%
40%
14
48
✗
USU −4.5
–
–

Sat, Oct 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 15 games

Final
Auburn@#24Arkansas
36%
64%
46
54
✓
ARK −5.1
–
–
Final
#7Clemson@Miami (FL)
68%
32%
58
0
✓
CLEM −8.0
–
–
Final
NC State@Wake Forest
80%
20%
35
17
✓
NCSU −13.8
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Syracuse
65%
35%
23
20
✓
PITT −6.6
–
–
Final
Army@Rice
31%
69%
31
38
✓
RICE −7.5
–
–
Final
Iowa State@#3Baylor
2.6%
97%
27
45
✓
BAY −30.8
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Texas
38%
62%
9
23
✓
TEX −4.5
–
–
Final
Northwestern@NebraskaUpset
25%
75%
30
28
✗
NEB −10.3
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Charlotte
84%
16%
44
10
✓
USM −16.7
–
–
Final
Houston@UCF
91%
9.1%
59
10
✓
HOU −21.8
–
–
Final
Boston College@Louisville
22%
78%
14
17
✓
LOU −12.1
–
–
Final
Tulane@Navy
4.7%
95%
14
31
✓
NAVY −26.4
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Kent State
84%
16%
48
0
✓
BGSU −16.4
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Air Force
15%
85%
14
42
✓
AF −16.1
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Western Michigan
5.6%
94%
13
35
✓
WMU −25.1
–
–

Afternoon 21 games

Final
Central Michigan@Ball State
75%
25%
23
21
✓
CMU −11.3
–
–
Final
Toledo@UMass
92%
8.3%
51
35
✓
TOL −22.5
–
–
Final
#16Tennessee@#1Alabama
21%
79%
14
19
✓
ALA −12.5
–
–
Final
Duke@Virginia Tech
42%
58%
45
43
✗
VT −2.9
–
–
Final
Virginia@#22North Carolina
12%
88%
13
26
✓
UNC −18.4
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@#4Oklahoma
16%
84%
27
63
✓
OU −15.7
–
–
Final
Kansas@Oklahoma State
2.4%
98%
10
58
✓
OKST −31.4
–
–
Final
#23Wisconsin@Illinois
68%
32%
24
13
✓
WIS −8.2
–
–
Final
Penn StatevsMaryland
76%
24%
31
30
✓
PSU −12.0
–
–
Final
Indiana@#18Michigan State
7.5%
92%
26
52
✓
MSU −22.6
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Louisiana Tech
36%
64%
16
45
✓
LT −5.2
–
–
Final
North Texas@Marshall
2.2%
98%
13
30
✓
MRSH −32.0
–
–
Final
Ohio@Buffalo
43%
57%
17
41
✓
BUF −2.5
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Northern Illinois
5.6%
94%
21
49
✓
NIU −25.1
–
–
Final
Missouri@Vanderbilt
57%
43%
3
10
✗
MIZ −3.2
–
–
Final
Washington State@Arizona
28%
72%
45
42
✗
ARIZ −9.0
–
–
Final
SMU@USF
26%
74%
14
38
✓
USF −9.6
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Nevada
34%
66%
20
30
✓
NEV −6.1
–
–
Final
UConn@Cincinnati
17%
83%
13
37
✓
CIN −14.5
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Idaho
70%
30%
13
27
✗
ULM −9.0
–
–
Final
Old Dominion@FIU
22%
78%
12
41
✓
FIU −11.8
–
–

Prime time 8 games

Final
Western Kentucky@#6LSU
16%
84%
20
48
✓
LSU −15.2
–
–
Final
#13Texas A&M@#21Ole Miss
51%
49%
3
23
✗
TA&M −1.0
–
–
Final
#14Florida State@Georgia TechUpset
67%
33%
16
22
✗
FSU −7.4
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@UTEP
68%
32%
17
27
✗
FAU −8.1
–
–
Final
New Mexico@San Jose State
41%
59%
21
31
✓
SJSU −3.2
–
–
Final
South Alabama@Texas State
34%
66%
18
36
✓
TXST −6.0
–
–
Final
Kentucky@#17Mississippi State
16%
84%
16
42
✓
MSST −15.3
–
–
Final
#12Utah@#9USC
40%
60%
24
42
✓
USC −3.7
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
Wyoming@Boise State
1.8%
98%
14
34
✓
BOIS −33.5
–
–
Final
Colorado@Oregon State
53%
47%
17
13
✓
COLO −1.7
–
–
Final
Washington@#5Stanford
21%
79%
14
31
✓
STAN −12.6
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Memphis@Tulsa
80%
20%
66
42
✓
MEM −13.9
–
–

Sun, Oct 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
#2Ohio State@Rutgers
92%
7.5%
49
7
✓
OSU −23.4
–
–
Final
Troy@New Mexico State
56%
44%
52
7
✓
TROY −2.8
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 24 · 3:00 PM ET Wagner at BYU BYU −54.8 >99%