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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 4 slate, 2015

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 59 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 10

Wilder than 10% of weeks in the archive.

10 upsets against 14.1 expected

  • Biggest shockEast Carolina over Virginia Tech17% chance · won 35-28
  • Runner-upAkron over Louisiana25% chance · won 35-14
  • Runner-upNevada over Buffalo27% chance · won 24-21

Upsets

Thu, Sep 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Cincinnati@Memphis
22%
78%
46
53
✓
MEM −12.9
–
–

Fri, Sep 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Late night 1 game

Final
#9Stanford@Oregon State
88%
12%
42
24
✓
STAN −19.6
–
–

Sat, Sep 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 12 games

Final
UCF@South Carolina
17%
84%
14
31
✓
SC −16.3
–
–
Final
#4LSU@Syracuse
87%
13%
34
24
✓
LSU −18.7
–
–
Final
#22Georgia Tech@DukeUpset
61%
39%
20
34
✗
GT −4.5
–
–
Final
Kansas@Rutgers
17%
83%
14
27
✓
RUTG −15.7
–
–
Final
BYU@Michigan
40%
60%
0
31
✓
MICH −4.3
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@#10Michigan State
5.5%
94%
10
30
✓
MSU −26.5
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@#23Nebraska
8.5%
92%
28
36
✓
NEB −22.9
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Purdue
63%
37%
35
28
✓
BGSU −5.3
–
–
Final
Navy@UConn
83%
17%
28
18
✓
NAVY −15.6
–
–
Final
Indiana@Wake Forest
52%
48%
31
24
✓
IU −0.9
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Boston College
47%
53%
14
17
✓
BC −1.5
–
–
Final
FIU@Louisiana Tech
18%
82%
17
27
✓
LT −15.5
–
–

Afternoon 20 games

Final
Rice@#17Baylor
9.5%
90%
17
70
✓
BAY −21.8
–
–
Final
Maryland@#20West Virginia
12%
88%
6
45
✓
WVU −19.6
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Wyoming
74%
26%
38
28
✓
UNM −10.4
–
–
Final
#16Tennessee@#24Florida
54%
46%
27
28
✗
TENN −1.4
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@East CarolinaUpset
83%
17%
28
35
✗
VT −15.7
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Texas
50%
50%
30
27
✗
TEX −0.2
–
–
Final
North Texas@Iowa
10%
90%
16
62
✓
IOWA −20.9
–
–
Final
Ohio@Minnesota
24%
76%
24
27
✓
MINN −12.1
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@#1Ohio State
2.0%
98%
12
38
✓
OSU −34.3
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Penn State
15%
85%
21
37
✓
PSU −17.6
–
–
Final
UMass@#8Notre Dame
1.2%
99%
27
62
✓
ND −37.4
–
–
Final
Marshall@Kent State
76%
24%
36
29
✓
MRSH −11.5
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@Old Dominion
68%
32%
49
0
✓
APP −7.8
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Western Kentucky
12%
88%
14
56
✓
WKU −19.8
–
–
Final
Nevada@Buffalo
27%
73%
24
21
✗
BUF −10.1
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@#3Alabama
1.5%
98%
0
34
✓
ALA −36.0
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Illinois
47%
53%
25
27
✓
ILL −1.2
–
–
Final
#18TCU@Texas Tech
55%
45%
55
52
✓
TCU −1.8
–
–
Final
California@Washington
40%
60%
30
24
✗
WASH −4.2
–
–
Final
Army@Eastern Michigan
45%
55%
58
36
✗
EMU −2.2
–
–

Prime time 10 games

Final
#13Texas A&MvsArkansas
65%
35%
28
21
✓
TA&M −6.3
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@#6Ole Miss
6.8%
93%
16
27
✓
MISS −24.8
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Charlotte
68%
32%
17
7
✓
FAU −7.8
–
–
Final
Colorado State@UTSA
71%
29%
33
31
✓
CSU −9.2
–
–
Final
Akron@Louisiana
25%
75%
35
14
✗
UL −11.2
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Toledo
33%
67%
7
37
✓
TOL −7.4
–
–
Final
#19Mississippi State@#25Auburn
51%
49%
17
9
✓
MSST −0.4
–
–
Final
Missouri@Kentucky
40%
60%
13
21
✓
UK −4.2
–
–
Final
Utah@#15OregonUpset
29%
71%
62
20
✗
ORE −9.3
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@Idaho
94%
6.0%
44
20
✓
GASO −25.7
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
#7USC@Arizona State
74%
26%
42
14
✓
USC −10.5
–
–
Final
Fresno State@San Jose State
45%
55%
23
49
✓
SJSU −2.3
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Boise State@Virginia
54%
46%
56
14
✓
BOIS −1.8
–
–

Sun, Sep 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 5 games

Final
NC State@South Alabama
85%
15%
63
13
✓
NCSU −16.8
–
–
Final
#12UCLA@Arizona
58%
42%
56
30
✓
UCLA −3.3
–
–
Final
Ball State@Northwestern
7.9%
92%
19
24
✓
NU −23.5
–
–
Final
Hawaii@#21Wisconsin
7.5%
92%
0
28
✓
WIS −24.0
–
–
Final
Texas State@Houston
18%
82%
14
59
✓
HOU −15.6
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 26 · 12:00 PM ET Southern at #2 Georgia Georgia −70.5 >99%
Sat, Sep 26 · 6:00 PM ET Samford at Louisville Louisville −36.8 99%
Sat, Sep 26 · 12:30 PM ET Delaware at North Carolina North Carolina −29.8 96%
Sat, Sep 26 · 1:30 PM ET Nicholls at Colorado Colorado −49.2 >99%
Sun, Sep 27 · TBD Incarnate Word at UTEP UTEP −7.9 68%
Sat, Sep 26 · 7:00 PM ET James Madison at SMU SMU −0.2 50%
Sat, Sep 26 · 9:00 PM ET Idaho State vs UNLV UNLV −27.2 95%