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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 5 slate, 2015

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 60 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 30

Wilder than 30% of weeks in the archive.

18 upsets against 16.2 expected

  • Biggest shockArizona State over UCLA13% chance · won 38-23
  • Runner-upIowa over Wisconsin26% chance · won 10-6
  • Runner-upCincinnati over Miami (FL)31% chance · won 34-23

Upsets

Thu, Oct 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Miami (FL)@Cincinnati
69%
31%
23
34
✗
MIA −8.0
–
–

Fri, Oct 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Temple@Charlotte
90%
9.6%
37
3
✓
TEM −21.6
–
–
Final
Memphis@USF
87%
13%
24
17
✓
MEM −18.5
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
UConn@BYU
7.9%
92%
13
30
✓
BYU −23.5
–
–

Sat, Oct 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 14 games

Final
South Carolina@Missouri
50%
50%
10
24
✗
MIZ −0.1
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Virginia Tech
35%
65%
17
13
✗
VT −6.5
–
–
Final
Army@Penn State
6.7%
93%
14
20
✓
PSU −24.9
–
–
Final
Kansas@Iowa State
15%
85%
13
38
✓
ISU −17.0
–
–
Final
#16West Virginia@#6Oklahoma
35%
65%
24
44
✓
OU −6.4
–
–
Final
Texas@#21TCU
22%
78%
7
50
✓
TCU −12.7
–
–
Final
#18Michigan@Maryland
86%
14%
28
0
✓
MICH −18.2
–
–
Final
Purdue@#15Michigan State
3.9%
96%
21
24
✓
MSU −29.2
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Northwestern
31%
69%
0
27
✓
NU −8.2
–
–
Final
Iowa@#22WisconsinUpset
26%
74%
10
6
✗
WIS −10.8
–
–
Final
UCF@Tulane
59%
41%
31
45
✗
UCF −3.7
–
–
Final
Houston@Tulsa
70%
30%
38
24
✓
HOU −8.6
–
–
Final
Louisville@NC State
40%
60%
20
13
✗
NCSU −4.3
–
–
Final
Ohio@Akron
46%
54%
14
12
✗
AKR −1.8
–
–

Afternoon 20 games

Final
FIU@UMass
52%
48%
14
24
✗
FIU −0.6
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Central Michigan
55%
45%
19
29
✗
NIU −2.0
–
–
Final
Toledo@Ball State
84%
16%
24
10
✓
TOL −16.3
–
–
Final
#2Alabama@#5Georgia
50%
50%
38
10
✓
ALA −0.1
–
–
Final
Boston College@Duke
24%
76%
7
9
✓
DUKE −11.7
–
–
Final
#14Florida State@Wake Forest
94%
5.6%
24
16
✓
FSU −26.2
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Georgia Tech
46%
54%
38
31
✗
GT −1.7
–
–
Final
Texas Techvs#8Baylor
30%
70%
35
63
✓
BAY −8.7
–
–
Final
#1Ohio State@Indiana
96%
4.1%
34
27
✓
OSU −28.7
–
–
Final
Old Dominion@Marshall
7.7%
92%
7
27
✓
MRSH −23.7
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@Rice
63%
37%
49
10
✓
WKU −5.3
–
–
Final
Air Force@Navy
36%
64%
11
33
✓
NAVY −5.8
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Appalachian State
6.0%
94%
13
31
✓
APP −25.9
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Buffalo
52%
48%
28
22
✓
BGSU −0.9
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Kent State
30%
70%
14
20
✓
KENT −9.0
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Auburn
8.9%
91%
21
35
✓
AUB −22.5
–
–
Final
Washington State@California
12%
88%
28
34
✓
CAL −20.0
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Oklahoma State
35%
65%
34
36
✓
OKST −6.3
–
–
Final
East Carolina@SMU
56%
44%
49
23
✓
ECU −2.6
–
–
Final
Nebraska@Illinois
67%
33%
13
14
✗
NEB −7.2
–
–

Prime time 13 games

Final
#9Ole Miss@#23Florida
58%
42%
10
38
✗
MISS −3.4
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@#4LSU
0.3%
>99%
22
44
✓
LSU −45.6
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Middle Tennessee
39%
61%
17
13
✗
MTSU −4.9
–
–
Final
#25Arkansas@#19Tennessee
32%
68%
24
20
✗
TENN −7.6
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Louisiana Tech
26%
74%
14
43
✓
LT −10.8
–
–
Final
North Texas@Southern Miss
19%
81%
14
49
✓
USM −14.5
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Utah State
50%
50%
18
33
✗
USU −0.1
–
–
Final
UNLV@Nevada
37%
63%
23
17
✗
NEV −5.5
–
–
Final
Idaho@Arkansas State
3.9%
96%
35
49
✓
ARST −29.2
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@Louisiana-Monroe
66%
34%
51
31
✓
GASO −6.9
–
–
Final
South Alabama@Troy
38%
62%
24
18
✗
TROY −5.4
–
–
Final
#20Mississippi State@#13Texas A&M
39%
61%
17
30
✓
TA&M −4.6
–
–
Final
Arizona State@#7UCLAUpset
13%
87%
38
23
✗
UCLA −18.6
–
–

Late night 4 games

Final
Hawaii@Boise State
11%
89%
0
55
✓
BOIS −20.8
–
–
Final
Arizona@#10Stanford
22%
78%
17
55
✓
STAN −12.8
–
–
Final
Fresno State@San Diego State
27%
73%
7
21
✓
SDSU −10.4
–
–
Final
#24Oregon@Colorado
70%
30%
41
24
✓
ORE −8.8
–
–

Sun, Oct 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
#11Notre Dame@#12Clemson
44%
56%
22
24
✓
CLEM −2.7
–
–
Final
UTSA@UTEP
52%
48%
25
6
✓
UTSA −0.8
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@New Mexico
20%
80%
29
38
✓
UNM −14.0
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 3 · 7:30 PM ET Eastern Kentucky at Kentucky Kentucky −43.8 >99%
Sat, Oct 3 · 3:30 PM ET Liberty vs Georgia State Liberty −12.8 78%