The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 16 slate, 2020

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 19 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 50

Wilder than 50% of weeks in the archive.

7 upsets against 5.6 expected

  • Biggest shockBall State over Buffalo23% chance · won 38-28
  • Runner-upSan Jose State over Boise State35% chance · won 34-20
  • Runner-upUAB over Marshall35% chance · won 22-13

Upsets

Fri, Dec 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 3 games

Final
Ball StatevsBuffaloUpset
23%
77%
38
28
✗
BUF −11.5
–
–
Final
Nebraska@Rutgers
59%
41%
28
21
✓
NEB −4.3
–
–
Final
#18Oregon@#12USC
38%
62%
31
24
✗
USC −4.2
–
–

Sat, Dec 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 4 games

Final
#21Northwesternvs#2Ohio State
10%
90%
10
22
✓
OSU −19.9
–
–
Final
#9Texas A&M@Tennessee
80%
20%
34
13
✓
TA&M −13.6
–
–
Final
#7Oklahomavs#16Iowa State
63%
37%
27
21
✓
OU −5.7
–
–
Final
Washington State@Utah
24%
76%
28
45
✓
UTAH −10.7
–
–

Afternoon 7 games

Final
Air Force@Army
60%
40%
7
10
✗
AF −4.4
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@#24LSU
40%
60%
48
53
✓
LSU −3.7
–
–
Final
Missouri@Mississippi State
50%
50%
32
51
✗
MIZ −0.7
–
–
Final
#3Clemsonvs#6Notre Dame
63%
37%
34
10
✓
CLEM −6.0
–
–
Final
Minnesota@#11Wisconsin
20%
80%
17
20
✓
WIS −12.7
–
–
Final
Boise StatevsSan Jose State
65%
35%
20
34
✗
BOIS −6.7
–
–
Final
Illinois@#23Penn State
16%
84%
21
56
✓
PSU −15.2
–
–

Prime time 2 games

Final
#1Alabamavs#5Florida
85%
15%
52
46
✓
ALA −16.8
–
–
Final
Tulsa@#10Cincinnati
18%
82%
24
27
✓
CIN −14.1
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
#22Arizona State@Oregon State
74%
26%
46
33
✓
ASU −10.9
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
UAB@Marshall
35%
65%
22
13
✗
MRSH −5.6
–
–

Sun, Dec 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Stanford@UCLA
35%
65%
48
47
✗
UCLA −5.5
–
–