The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Bowls slate, 2020

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 28 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Week 16 · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 56

Wilder than 56% of weeks in the archive.

9 upsets against 9.5 expected

  • Biggest shockHawaii over Houston25% chance · won 28-14
  • Runner-upLiberty over Coastal Carolina27% chance · won 37-34
  • Runner-upBall State over San Jose State30% chance · won 34-13

Upsets

Mon, Dec 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Appalachian StatevsNorth Texas
94%
6.2%
56
28
✓
APP −25.1
–
–

Tue, Dec 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
TulanevsNevada
67%
33%
27
38
✗
TULN −7.6
–
–

Wed, Dec 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Louisiana TechvsGeorgia Southern
38%
62%
3
38
✓
GASO −4.4
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#21UCFvs#18BYU
45%
55%
23
49
✓
BYU −1.6
–
–

Thu, Dec 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
HawaiivsHoustonUpset
25%
75%
28
14
✗
HOU −10.3
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
MemphisvsFlorida Atlantic
69%
31%
25
10
✓
MEM −8.5
–
–

Fri, Dec 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
MarshallvsBuffalo
41%
59%
10
17
✓
BUF −3.0
–
–

Sat, Dec 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 2 games

Final
LouisianavsUTSA
84%
16%
31
24
✓
UL −16.0
–
–
Final
Western KentuckyvsGeorgia State
38%
62%
21
39
✓
GAST −4.3
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
LibertyvsCoastal Carolina
27%
73%
37
34
✗
CCU −9.2
–
–

Tue, Dec 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
#25Oklahoma StatevsMiami (FL)
54%
46%
37
34
✓
OKST −1.9
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#13TexasvsColorado
81%
19%
55
23
✓
TEX −14.3
–
–

Wed, Dec 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Wake Forestvs#14Wisconsin
20%
80%
28
42
✓
WIS −13.1
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#5Floridavs#7Oklahoma
56%
44%
20
55
✗
FLA −2.7
–
–

Thu, Dec 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 2 games

Final
TulsavsMississippi State
52%
48%
26
28
✗
TLSA −1.3
–
–
Final
Ball StatevsSan Jose State
30%
70%
34
13
✗
SJSU −7.8
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
West VirginiavsArmy
68%
32%
24
21
✓
WVU −7.8
–
–

Fri, Jan 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 2 games

Final
#10Cincinnativs#4Georgia
29%
71%
21
24
✓
UGA −8.4
–
–
Final
#12Auburnvs#23Northwestern
58%
42%
19
35
✗
AUB −3.9
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
#6Notre Damevs#1Alabama
12%
88%
14
31
✓
ALA −18.1
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#2Ohio Statevs#3Clemson
53%
46%
49
28
✓
OSU −1.9
–
–

Sat, Jan 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 2 games

Final
NC StatevsKentucky
33%
67%
21
23
✓
UK −6.4
–
–
Final
Ole Missvs#11IndianaUpset
31%
69%
26
20
✗
IU −7.3
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
#17Oregonvs#16Iowa State
49%
51%
17
34
✓
ISU −0.1
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#8Texas A&Mvs#20North Carolina
67%
33%
41
27
✓
TA&M −7.5
–
–

Mon, Jan 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#2Ohio Statevs#1Alabama
31%
69%
24
52
✓
ALA −7.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sun, Feb 21 · 5:00 PM ET Tarleton State vs New Mexico State Tarleton State −0.1 49%
Sun, Mar 7 · 5:00 PM ET Utah Tech vs New Mexico State Utah Tech −0.1 49%