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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 15 slate, 2020

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 37 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 16 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 26

Wilder than 26% of weeks in the archive.

9 upsets against 11.2 expected

  • Biggest shockLSU over Florida16% chance · won 37-34
  • Runner-upSouthern Miss over Florida Atlantic23% chance · won 45-31
  • Runner-upNew Mexico over Fresno State24% chance · won 49-39

Upsets

Thu, Dec 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Florida Atlantic@Southern MissUpset
77%
23%
31
45
✗
FAU −12.1
–
–

Fri, Dec 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
North Texas@UTEP
64%
36%
45
43
✓
UNT −6.2
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Nevada@San Jose State
38%
62%
20
30
✓
SJSU −4.5
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Pittsburgh@Georgia Tech
70%
30%
34
20
✓
PITT −8.8
–
–

Sat, Dec 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 12 games

Final
Rutgers@Maryland
39%
61%
27
24
✗
MD −3.9
–
–
Final
Illinois@#21Northwestern
18%
82%
10
28
✓
NU −14.1
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Nebraska
45%
55%
24
17
✗
NEB −1.6
–
–
Final
Michigan State@#22Penn State
17%
83%
24
39
✓
PSU −15.0
–
–
Final
Utah@Colorado
53%
47%
38
21
✓
UTAH −1.7
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Eastern Michigan
34%
66%
33
41
✓
EMU −5.9
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Ball State
42%
58%
27
30
✓
BALL −2.6
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Louisville
54%
46%
21
45
✗
WAKE −2.0
–
–
Final
#5Georgia@Missouri
85%
15%
49
14
✓
UGA −16.9
–
–
Final
#1Alabama@Arkansas
98%
2.1%
52
3
✓
ALA −33.1
–
–
Final
UAB@Rice
60%
40%
21
16
✓
UAB −4.6
–
–
Final
Akron@Buffalo
1.4%
99%
7
56
✓
BUF −34.9
–
–

Afternoon 11 games

Final
NavyvsArmy
38%
62%
0
15
✓
ARMY −4.6
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Toledo
39%
61%
23
24
✓
TOL −3.9
–
–
Final
Coastal Carolina@Troy
79%
21%
42
38
✓
CCU −13.5
–
–
Final
#23North Carolina@#20Miami (FL)
43%
57%
62
26
✗
MIA −2.4
–
–
Final
#8Wisconsin@#10Iowa
50%
50%
7
28
✗
WIS −0.7
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Baylor
55%
45%
42
3
✓
OKST −2.6
–
–
Final
Houston@Memphis
54%
46%
27
30
✗
HOU −2.2
–
–
Final
Duke@Florida State
37%
63%
35
56
✓
FSU −4.8
–
–
Final
Tennessee@Vanderbilt
83%
17%
42
17
✓
TENN −15.9
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@Georgia Southern
76%
24%
34
26
✓
APP −11.9
–
–
Final
Boise State@Wyoming
72%
28%
17
9
✓
BOIS −9.7
–
–

Prime time 3 games

Final
#13USC@UCLA
64%
36%
43
38
✓
USC −6.2
–
–
Final
#15Auburn@Mississippi State
75%
25%
24
10
✓
AUB −11.3
–
–
Final
Virginia@Virginia Tech
45%
55%
15
33
✓
VT −1.3
–
–

Late night 4 games

Final
Stanford@Oregon State
57%
43%
27
24
✓
STAN −3.3
–
–
Final
San Diego State@#17BYU
15%
85%
14
28
✓
BYU −16.1
–
–
Final
Fresno State@New MexicoUpset
76%
24%
39
49
✗
FRES −11.5
–
–
Final
UNLV@Hawaii
20%
80%
21
38
✓
HAW −12.7
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Arizona State@Arizona
76%
24%
70
7
✓
ASU −11.5
–
–

Sun, Dec 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
#24LSU@#4FloridaUpset
16%
84%
37
34
✗
FLA −15.2
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@TCU
9.0%
91%
10
52
✓
TCU −21.0
–
–