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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 3 slate, 2020

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 20 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 16 · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 2

Chaos 71

Wilder than 71% of weeks in the archive.

6 upsets against 5.1 expected

  • Biggest shockMarshall over Appalachian State20% chance · won 17-7
  • Runner-upLiberty over Western Kentucky28% chance · won 30-24
  • Runner-upNavy over Tulane36% chance · won 27-24

Upsets

Sat, Sep 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 7 games

Final
Liberty@Western Kentucky
28%
72%
30
24
✗
WKU −8.5
–
–
Final
Navy@Tulane
36%
64%
27
24
✗
TULN −5.1
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Georgia State
84%
16%
34
31
✓
UL −15.5
–
–
Final
Boston College@Duke
41%
59%
26
6
✗
DUKE −2.9
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Pittsburgh
22%
78%
10
21
✓
PITT −11.6
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Oklahoma State
22%
78%
7
16
✓
OKST −11.2
–
–
Final
USF@#4Notre Dame
2.6%
97%
0
52
✓
ND −29.9
–
–

Afternoon 4 games

Final
#25UCF@Georgia Tech
54%
46%
49
21
✓
UCF −1.9
–
–
Final
#18Appalachian State@MarshallUpset
80%
20%
7
17
✗
APP −13.4
–
–
Final
Troy@Middle Tennessee
50%
50%
47
14
✓
TROY −0.7
–
–
Final
SMU@North Texas
78%
22%
65
35
✓
SMU −12.2
–
–

Prime time 3 games

Final
Louisiana Tech@Southern Miss
61%
39%
31
30
✓
LT −4.7
–
–
Final
Texas State@Louisiana-Monroe
41%
59%
38
17
✗
ULM −3.0
–
–
Final
Miami (FL)@Louisville
40%
60%
47
34
✗
LOU −3.6
–
–

Sun, Sep 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Wake Forest@NC State
46%
54%
42
45
✓
NCSU −0.9
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 19 · 12:00 PM ET Austin Peay at Cincinnati Cincinnati −37.8 99%
Sat, Sep 19 · 4:00 PM ET The Citadel at #1 Clemson Clemson −64.7 >99%
Sat, Sep 19 · 9:00 PM ET Abilene Christian at UTEP UTEP −6.3 67%
Sat, Sep 19 · 3:30 PM ET Stephen F. Austin at UTSA UTSA −33.9 99%
Fri, Sep 18 · 7:30 PM ET Campbell at Coastal Carolina Coastal Carolina −28.8 97%