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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 12 slate, 2020

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 44 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 16 · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 34

Wilder than 34% of weeks in the archive.

13 upsets against 11.8 expected

  • Biggest shockMiddle Tennessee over Troy21% chance · won 20-17
  • Runner-upIllinois over Nebraska23% chance · won 41-23
  • Runner-upNorthwestern over Wisconsin24% chance · won 17-7

Upsets

Tue, Nov 17

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Akron@Kent State
7.8%
92%
35
69
✓
KENT −22.3
–
–

Wed, Nov 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Buffalo@Bowling Green
98%
2.5%
42
17
✓
BUF −31.8
–
–

Thu, Nov 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Tulane@Tulsa
42%
58%
24
30
✓
TLSA −2.7
–
–

Time TBD 3 games

Final
Northern Illinois@Ball State
27%
73%
25
31
✓
BALL −9.2
–
–
Final
Toledo@Eastern Michigan
67%
33%
45
28
✓
TOL −7.4
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Central Michigan
45%
55%
52
44
✗
CMU −1.4
–
–

Fri, Nov 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 3 games

Final
Purdue@Minnesota
53%
46%
31
34
✗
PUR −1.9
–
–
Final
UMass@Florida Atlantic
0.9%
99%
2
24
✓
FAU −37.8
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Air Force
12%
88%
0
28
✓
AF −18.3
–
–

Sat, Nov 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 10 games

Final
East Carolina@Temple
48%
52%
28
3
✗
TEM −0.2
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@Coastal Carolina
59%
41%
23
34
✗
APP −4.0
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Texas State
54%
46%
45
47
✗
ARST −2.2
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@Army
30%
70%
27
28
✓
ARMY −7.7
–
–
Final
#18LSU@Arkansas
68%
32%
27
24
✓
LSU −7.8
–
–
Final
#5Florida@Vanderbilt
99%
1.4%
38
17
✓
FLA −35.8
–
–
Final
Illinois@NebraskaUpset
23%
77%
41
23
✗
NEB −11.5
–
–
Final
#21Indiana@#2Ohio State
9.8%
90%
35
42
✓
OSU −20.3
–
–
Final
FIU@Western Kentucky
46%
54%
21
38
✓
WKU −1.2
–
–
Final
Rice@North Texas
61%
39%
17
27
✗
RICE −5.1
–
–

Afternoon 12 games

Final
UTSA@Southern Miss
63%
37%
23
20
✓
UTSA −5.7
–
–
Final
#12Cincinnati@#17UCF
57%
43%
36
33
✓
CIN −3.4
–
–
Final
Georgia State@South Alabama
58%
42%
31
14
✓
GAST −3.8
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@TroyUpset
21%
79%
20
17
✗
TROY −12.2
–
–
Final
#4Wisconsin@#20NorthwesternUpset
76%
24%
7
17
✗
WIS −11.7
–
–
Final
#13Iowa@#23Penn State
58%
42%
41
21
✓
IOWA −3.9
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Nevada
65%
35%
21
26
✗
SDSU −6.6
–
–
Final
California@Oregon State
53%
47%
27
31
✗
CAL −1.7
–
–
Final
UCLA@#8Oregon
16%
84%
35
38
✓
ORE −15.4
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Pittsburgh
57%
43%
14
47
✗
VT −3.4
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Iowa State
36%
64%
0
45
✓
ISU −5.1
–
–
Final
Kentucky@#1Alabama
4.1%
96%
3
63
✓
ALA −27.5
–
–

Prime time 6 games

Final
Liberty@NC State
27%
73%
14
15
✓
NCSU −9.4
–
–
Final
#22Oklahoma State@#9Oklahoma
32%
68%
13
41
✓
OU −6.8
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@#6Georgia
6.8%
93%
24
31
✓
UGA −23.4
–
–
Final
Missouri@South Carolina
49%
51%
17
10
✗
PK
–
–
Final
Michigan@Rutgers
76%
24%
48
42
✓
MICH −11.8
–
–
Final
Arizona@#24Washington
19%
81%
27
44
✓
WASH −13.7
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
#19USC@Utah
60%
40%
33
17
✓
USC −4.4
–
–
Final
Boise State@Hawaii
83%
17%
40
32
✓
BOIS −15.4
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Syracuse@Louisville
25%
75%
0
30
✓
LOU −10.3
–
–

Sun, Nov 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Tennessee@#10Auburn
17%
83%
17
30
✓
AUB −15.0
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 21 · 3:00 PM ET North Alabama at #14 BYU BYU −48.7 >99%
Sat, Nov 21 · 12:00 PM ET Stephen F. Austin at Memphis Memphis −45.9 >99%
Sat, Nov 21 · 4:00 PM ET Abilene Christian at Virginia Virginia −45.9 >99%