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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 14 slate, 2020

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 46 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 16 · Week 15 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 89

Wilder than 89% of weeks in the archive.

14 upsets against 12.1 expected

  • Biggest shockRice over Marshall9.4% chance · won 20-0
  • Runner-upNew Mexico over Wyoming13% chance · won 17-16
  • Runner-upEastern Michigan over Western Michigan17% chance · won 53-42

Upsets

Thu, Dec 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Louisiana Tech@North Texas
66%
34%
42
31
✓
LT −7.0
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
Air Force@Utah State
87%
13%
35
7
✓
AF −18.5
–
–

Fri, Dec 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Louisiana@Appalachian State
41%
59%
24
21
✗
APP −3.3
–
–

Sat, Dec 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 16 games

Final
Kansas@Texas Tech
12%
88%
13
16
✓
TTU −18.1
–
–
Final
#17Texas@Kansas State
74%
26%
69
31
✓
TEX −10.5
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@TCU
51%
49%
22
29
✗
OKST −1.1
–
–
Final
#9Texas A&M@#12Auburn
51%
49%
31
20
✓
TA&M −1.0
–
–
Final
Nebraska@Purdue
42%
58%
37
27
✗
PUR −2.6
–
–
Final
#24Penn State@Rutgers
73%
27%
23
7
✓
PSU −10.1
–
–
Final
#2Ohio State@Michigan State
97%
3.0%
52
12
✓
OSU −30.6
–
–
Final
Toledo@Northern Illinois
71%
29%
41
24
✓
TOL −9.1
–
–
Final
Rice@MarshallUpset
9.4%
91%
20
0
✗
MRSH −20.7
–
–
Final
Memphis@Tulane
42%
58%
21
35
✓
TULN −2.8
–
–
Final
Arkansas@Missouri
42%
58%
48
50
✓
MIZ −2.6
–
–
Final
Ball State@Central Michigan
33%
67%
45
20
✗
CMU −6.6
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Western MichiganUpset
17%
83%
53
42
✗
WMU −14.7
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Akron
45%
55%
3
31
✓
AKR −1.7
–
–
Final
Troy@South Alabama
58%
42%
29
0
✓
TROY −3.6
–
–
Final
Syracuse@#6Notre Dame
1.4%
99%
21
45
✓
ND −34.9
–
–

Afternoon 12 games

Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Arkansas State
14%
86%
15
48
✓
ARST −16.7
–
–
Final
Boston College@Virginia
47%
53%
32
43
✓
UVA −0.7
–
–
Final
West Virginia@#19Iowa State
32%
68%
6
42
✓
ISU −7.0
–
–
Final
#4Florida@Tennessee
89%
11%
31
19
✓
FLA −19.7
–
–
Final
#10Iowa@Illinois
86%
14%
35
21
✓
IOWA −17.4
–
–
Final
#16Indiana@#7Wisconsin
29%
72%
14
6
✗
WIS −8.6
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Navy
76%
24%
19
6
✓
TLSA −11.5
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@NC State
33%
67%
13
23
✓
NCSU −6.5
–
–
Final
Stanford@#23WashingtonUpset
25%
75%
31
26
✗
WASH −10.3
–
–
Final
#14BYU@Coastal CarolinaUpset
76%
24%
17
22
✗
BYU −11.5
–
–
Final
Hawaii@San Jose State
30%
70%
24
35
✓
SJSU −7.8
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Georgia Southern
63%
37%
3
20
✗
FAU −5.9
–
–

Prime time 6 games

Final
#3Clemson@Virginia Tech
92%
8.4%
45
10
✓
CLEM −22.4
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Kentucky
32%
68%
18
41
✓
UK −6.9
–
–
Final
Baylor@#8Oklahoma
14%
86%
14
27
✓
OU −16.7
–
–
Final
#1Alabama@#22LSU
93%
6.6%
55
17
✓
ALA −24.5
–
–
Final
#25Miami (FL)@Duke
82%
18%
48
0
✓
MIA −15.2
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Nevada
45%
55%
26
37
✓
NEV −1.6
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
Wyoming@New MexicoUpset
87%
13%
16
17
✗
WYO −18.1
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Utah
29%
71%
24
30
✓
UTAH −8.2
–
–
Final
UCLA@Arizona State
43%
57%
25
18
✗
ASU −2.5
–
–

Sun, Dec 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Western Kentucky@Charlotte
34%
66%
37
19
✗
CLT −6.0
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
Washington State@#15USC
18%
82%
13
38
✓
USC −14.4
–
–

Time TBD 3 games

Final
Colorado State@San Diego State
20%
80%
17
29
✓
SDSU −12.9
–
–
Final
#13Oregon@CaliforniaUpset
82%
18%
17
21
✗
ORE −14.9
–
–
Final
Colorado@Arizona
64%
36%
24
13
✓
COLO −6.0
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Dec 5 · 12:00 PM ET Western Carolina at #20 North Carolina North Carolina −60.4 >99%