The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 6 slate, 2020

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 29 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 16 · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 76

Wilder than 76% of weeks in the archive.

12 upsets against 7.8 expected

  • Biggest shockMissouri over LSU10% chance · won 45-41
  • Runner-upTexas A&M over Florida31% chance · won 41-38
  • Runner-upMiddle Tennessee over FIU31% chance · won 31-28

Upsets

Thu, Oct 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Tulane@Houston
41%
59%
31
49
✓
HOU −3.7
–
–

Fri, Oct 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Louisville@Georgia Tech
67%
33%
27
46
✗
LOU −7.1
–
–

Sat, Oct 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 8 games

Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Liberty
25%
75%
7
40
✓
LIB −11.1
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@#16North Carolina
33%
67%
45
56
✓
UNC −7.4
–
–
Final
NC State@Virginia
33%
67%
38
21
✗
UVA −7.3
–
–
Final
#10Texasvs#20Oklahoma
57%
43%
45
53
✗
TEX −2.8
–
–
Final
#6Florida@#22Texas A&M
69%
31%
38
41
✗
FLA −8.2
–
–
Final
Missouri@#7LSUUpset
10%
90%
45
41
✗
LSU −21.2
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Vanderbilt
77%
23%
41
7
✓
SC −12.0
–
–
Final
Duke@Syracuse
39%
61%
38
24
✗
SYR −4.7
–
–

Afternoon 9 games

Final
Texas State@Troy
44%
56%
17
37
✓
TROY −2.6
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@Iowa State
22%
78%
15
31
✓
ISU −13.1
–
–
Final
#18Tennessee@#2Georgia
17%
83%
21
44
✓
UGA −15.8
–
–
Final
UTSA@#17BYU
4.0%
96%
20
27
✓
BYU −29.0
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@FIU
31%
69%
31
28
✗
FIU −8.3
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Boston College
54%
46%
30
31
✗
PITT −1.8
–
–
Final
Kansas State@TCU
36%
64%
21
14
✗
TCU −6.2
–
–
Final
Arkansas@#9Auburn
14%
86%
28
30
✓
AUB −18.0
–
–
Final
Temple@Navy
62%
38%
29
31
✗
TEM −5.0
–
–

Prime time 7 games

Final
East Carolina@USF
44%
56%
44
24
✗
USF −2.8
–
–
Final
UTEP@Louisiana Tech
15%
85%
17
21
✓
LT −17.3
–
–
Final
Marshall@Western Kentucky
70%
30%
38
14
✓
MRSH −8.7
–
–
Final
#19Miami (FL)@#3Clemson
18%
82%
17
42
✓
CLEM −15.1
–
–
Final
Florida State@#5Notre Dame
8.5%
92%
26
42
✓
ND −22.9
–
–
Final
#1Alabama@Ole Miss
90%
9.7%
63
48
✓
ALA −21.4
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Kentucky
55%
45%
2
24
✗
MSST −1.8
–
–

Sun, Oct 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Charlotte@North Texas
66%
34%
49
21
✓
CLT −6.7
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 10 · 1:30 PM ET The Citadel at Army Army −32.6 98%
Sat, Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ET Central Arkansas at Arkansas State Arkansas State −21.5 90%