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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 13 slate, 2020

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 44 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 16 · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 52

Wilder than 52% of weeks in the archive.

10 upsets against 11.0 expected

  • Biggest shockOregon State over Oregon12% chance · won 41-38
  • Runner-upMichigan State over Northwestern13% chance · won 29-20
  • Runner-upRutgers over Purdue23% chance · won 37-30

Upsets

Fri, Nov 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 3 games

Final
#22Iowa State@#17Texas
40%
60%
23
20
✗
TEX −3.5
–
–
Final
UMass@Liberty
2.1%
98%
0
45
✓
LIB −32.3
–
–
Final
Nebraska@#9Iowa
13%
87%
20
26
✓
IOWA −17.9
–
–

Afternoon 5 games

Final
#19UCF@USF
96%
4.2%
58
46
✓
UCF −28.0
–
–
Final
#7Notre Dame@#20North Carolina
68%
32%
31
17
✓
ND −7.9
–
–
Final
Wyoming@UNLV
76%
24%
45
14
✓
WYO −11.7
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Eastern Michigan
75%
25%
31
23
✓
CMU −11.2
–
–
Final
Stanford@California
56%
44%
24
23
✓
STAN −2.9
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#10Oregon@Oregon StateUpset
88%
12%
38
41
✗
ORE −19.2
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
New Mexico@Utah State
50%
50%
27
41
✓
UNM −0.3
–
–

Sat, Nov 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 13 games

Final
SMU@East CarolinaUpset
76%
24%
38
52
✗
SMU −11.6
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@Georgia State
49%
51%
24
30
✓
GASO −0.1
–
–
Final
NC State@Syracuse
73%
27%
36
29
✓
NCSU −10.3
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@#24Oklahoma State
14%
86%
44
50
✓
OKST −16.5
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Missouri
15%
85%
0
41
✓
MIZ −15.9
–
–
Final
Kentucky@#4Florida
12%
88%
10
34
✓
FLA −18.5
–
–
Final
Maryland@#18Indiana
20%
80%
11
27
✓
IU −13.1
–
–
Final
Penn State@Michigan
48%
52%
27
17
✗
MICH −0.5
–
–
Final
Ball State@Toledo
30%
70%
27
24
✗
TOL −7.7
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Western Michigan
12%
88%
27
30
✓
WMU −18.8
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Ohio
8.4%
92%
10
52
✓
OHIO −21.7
–
–
Final
Kent State@Buffalo
30%
70%
41
70
✓
BUF −7.8
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Akron
83%
17%
38
7
✓
M-OH −15.8
–
–

Afternoon 12 games

Final
North Texas@UTSA
37%
63%
17
49
✓
UTSA −4.7
–
–
Final
South Alabama@Arkansas State
35%
65%
38
31
✗
ARST −5.6
–
–
Final
Coastal Carolina@Texas State
84%
16%
49
14
✓
CCU −16.5
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Louisiana-Monroe
97%
3.4%
70
20
✓
UL −29.6
–
–
Final
Troy@Appalachian State
17%
83%
10
47
✓
APP −14.8
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@#3Clemson
8.3%
92%
17
52
✓
CLEM −21.7
–
–
Final
#13Auburn@#1Alabama
10%
90%
13
42
✓
ALA −19.9
–
–
Final
#15Northwestern@Michigan StateUpset
87%
13%
20
29
✗
NU −18.6
–
–
Final
Louisville@Boston College
47%
53%
27
34
✓
BC −0.6
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Ole Miss
31%
69%
24
31
✓
MISS −7.5
–
–
Final
Rutgers@PurdueUpset
23%
77%
37
30
✗
PUR −11.5
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Colorado
44%
56%
10
20
✓
COLO −1.9
–
–

Prime time 4 games

Final
#5Georgia@South Carolina
90%
10%
45
16
✓
UGA −20.4
–
–
Final
Utah@#23Washington
35%
65%
21
24
✓
WASH −5.7
–
–
Final
TCU@Kansas
94%
6.1%
59
23
✓
TCU −25.1
–
–
Final
Arizona@UCLA
24%
76%
10
27
✓
UCLA −10.9
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Nevada@Hawaii
58%
42%
21
24
✗
NEV −3.7
–
–

Sun, Nov 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 4 games

Final
Duke@Georgia Tech
52%
48%
33
56
✗
DUKE −1.1
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Baylor
38%
62%
31
32
✓
BAY −4.5
–
–
Final
#21LSU@#11Texas A&M
34%
66%
7
20
✓
TA&M −6.2
–
–
Final
Memphis@Navy
69%
31%
10
7
✓
MEM −8.6
–
–