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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 11 slate, 2020

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 45 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 16 · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 2

Wilder than 2% of weeks in the archive.

7 upsets against 11.6 expected

  • Biggest shockTexas Tech over Baylor24% chance · won 24-23
  • Runner-upNebraska over Penn State30% chance · won 30-23
  • Runner-upColorado over Stanford34% chance · won 35-32

Upsets

Tue, Nov 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Kent State@Bowling Green
84%
16%
62
24
✓
KENT −16.3
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Buffalo
31%
69%
10
42
✓
BUF −7.6
–
–

Wed, Nov 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Central Michigan@Northern Illinois
70%
30%
40
10
✓
CMU −8.7
–
–
Final
Toledo@Western Michigan
39%
61%
38
41
✓
WMU −3.8
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Akron@Ohio
10%
90%
10
24
✓
OHIO −19.9
–
–

Thu, Nov 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Colorado State@Boise State
16%
84%
21
52
✓
BOIS −15.6
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Eastern Michigan@Ball State
37%
63%
31
38
✓
BALL −5.0
–
–

Fri, Nov 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
East Carolina@#12Cincinnati
3.3%
97%
17
55
✓
CIN −29.1
–
–

Sat, Nov 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 12 games

Final
Middle Tennessee@Marshall
7.0%
93%
14
42
✓
MRSH −23.3
–
–
Final
Army@Tulane
43%
57%
12
38
✓
TULN −2.2
–
–
Final
#25Miami (FL)@Virginia Tech
54%
46%
25
24
✓
MIA −2.0
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@#17North Carolina
28%
72%
53
59
✓
UNC −9.0
–
–
Final
TCU@West Virginia
52%
48%
6
24
✗
TCU −1.4
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Kentucky
6.5%
94%
35
38
✓
UK −23.8
–
–
Final
#23Indiana@Michigan State
80%
20%
24
0
✓
IU −14.2
–
–
Final
#16Penn State@NebraskaUpset
70%
30%
23
30
✗
PSU −9.0
–
–
Final
Illinois@Rutgers
42%
58%
23
20
✗
RUTG −2.7
–
–
Final
South Alabama@Louisiana
14%
86%
10
38
✓
UL −16.9
–
–
Final
Georgia State@Appalachian State
9.6%
90%
13
17
✓
APP −20.5
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Utah State
80%
20%
35
16
✓
FRES −13.6
–
–

Afternoon 12 games

Final
UTEP@UTSA
23%
77%
21
52
✓
UTSA −11.4
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Western Kentucky
40%
60%
7
10
✓
WKU −3.8
–
–
Final
USF@Houston
17%
83%
21
56
✓
HOU −14.7
–
–
Final
Texas State@Georgia Southern
31%
69%
38
40
✓
GASO −7.5
–
–
Final
#6Notre Dame@Boston College
89%
11%
45
31
✓
ND −19.7
–
–
Final
#14USC@Arizona
86%
14%
34
30
✓
USC −17.7
–
–
Final
Colorado@Stanford
34%
66%
35
32
✗
STAN −6.2
–
–
Final
Louisville@Virginia
51%
49%
17
31
✗
LOU −0.9
–
–
Final
Baylor@Texas TechUpset
76%
24%
23
24
✗
BAY −11.5
–
–
Final
Hawaii@San Diego State
31%
69%
10
34
✓
SDSU −7.3
–
–
Final
#24Northwestern@Purdue
60%
40%
27
20
✓
NU −4.3
–
–
Final
Nevada@New Mexico
78%
22%
27
20
✓
NEV −12.9
–
–

Prime time 4 games

Final
Temple@#21UCF
5.1%
95%
13
38
✓
UCF −25.8
–
–
Final
Florida State@NC State
35%
65%
22
38
✓
NCSU −5.8
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Ole Miss
35%
65%
42
59
✓
MISS −5.6
–
–
Final
#7Wisconsin@#20Michigan
65%
35%
49
11
✓
WIS −6.8
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
UNLV@San Jose State
15%
85%
17
34
✓
SJSU −16.0
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Washington
19%
82%
21
27
✓
WASH −13.9
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Florida Atlantic@FIU
75%
25%
38
19
✓
FAU −11.2
–
–
Final
#18Iowa@Minnesota
62%
38%
35
7
✓
IOWA −5.5
–
–

Sun, Nov 15

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
California@UCLA
56%
44%
10
34
✗
CAL −2.7
–
–

Time TBD 3 games

Final
SMU@Tulsa
47%
53%
24
28
✓
TLSA −0.7
–
–
Final
Arkansas@#5Florida
12%
88%
35
63
✓
FLA −18.6
–
–
Final
#8Oregon@Washington State
84%
16%
43
29
✓
ORE −16.6
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 14 · 12:00 PM ET Western Carolina at Liberty Liberty −28.3 96%