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2026 · Week 11

Week 2 slate, 2020

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 20 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 16 · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3

Chaos 61

Wilder than 61% of weeks in the archive.

5 upsets against 3.2 expected

  • Biggest shockLouisiana over Iowa State27% chance · won 31-14
  • Runner-upArkansas State over Kansas State29% chance · won 35-31
  • Runner-upGeorgia Tech over Florida State30% chance · won 16-13

Fri, Sep 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
UAB@Miami (FL)
29%
72%
14
31
✓
MIA −8.3
–
–

Sat, Sep 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 6 games

Final
Syracuse@#22North Carolina
20%
80%
6
31
✓
UNC −12.7
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Kansas State
29%
71%
35
31
✗
KSU −8.0
–
–
Final
Charlotte@Appalachian State
16%
84%
20
35
✓
APP −15.3
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Iowa State
27%
73%
31
14
✗
ISU −9.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@#20Army
8.7%
91%
7
37
✓
ARMY −20.7
–
–
Final
Duke@#10Notre Dame
11%
89%
13
27
✓
ND −18.8
–
–

Afternoon 2 games

Final
UTSA@Texas State
38%
62%
51
48
✗
TXST −4.0
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Florida State
30%
70%
16
13
✗
FSU −7.7
–
–

Prime time 2 games

Final
#2Clemson@Wake Forest
91%
9.1%
37
13
✓
CLEM −21.2
–
–
Final
Tulane@South Alabama
65%
35%
27
24
✓
TULN −6.4
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Coastal Carolina@Kansas
30%
70%
38
23
✗
KU −7.5
–
–

Sun, Sep 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Western Kentucky@Louisville
20%
80%
21
35
✓
LOU −12.8
–
–
Final
UTEP@#11Texas
0.3%
>99%
3
59
✓
TEX −42.2
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 12 · 4:14 PM ET Campbell at Georgia Southern Georgia Southern −30.3 98%
Sat, Sep 12 · 12:00 PM ET Eastern Kentucky at West Virginia West Virginia −46.2 >99%
Sun, Sep 13 · TBD Houston Christian at Texas Tech Texas Tech −44.7 >99%
Sat, Sep 12 · 7:00 PM ET Missouri State at #18 Oklahoma Oklahoma −27.1 96%
Sat, Sep 12 · 7:00 PM ET The Citadel at USF USF −21.7 92%
Sat, Sep 12 · 4:00 PM ET Austin Peay at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh −27.7 96%