The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 5 slate, 2020

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 32 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 16 · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 79

Wilder than 79% of weeks in the archive.

11 upsets against 7.8 expected

  • Biggest shockTulsa over UCF15% chance · won 34-26
  • Runner-upArkansas over Mississippi State18% chance · won 21-14
  • Runner-upNC State over Pittsburgh24% chance · won 30-29

Upsets

Fri, Oct 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Louisiana Tech@#22BYU
11%
89%
14
45
✓
BYU −20.5
–
–

Sat, Oct 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 8 games

Final
East Carolina@Georgia State
61%
39%
29
49
✗
ECU −4.6
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Coastal Carolina
61%
39%
23
52
✗
ARST −4.7
–
–
Final
NC State@PittsburghUpset
24%
76%
30
29
✗
PITT −11.9
–
–
Final
#19Baylor@West VirginiaUpset
75%
25%
21
27
✗
BAY −11.1
–
–
Final
TCU@#10TexasUpset
27%
73%
33
31
✗
TEX −10.1
–
–
Final
South Carolina@#7Florida
19%
81%
24
38
✓
FLA −14.7
–
–
Final
Missouri@Tennessee
30%
70%
12
35
✓
TENN −8.8
–
–
Final
UTSA@UAB
28%
72%
13
21
✓
UAB −10.0
–
–

Afternoon 11 games

Final
USF@Cincinnati
11%
89%
7
28
✓
CIN −20.1
–
–
Final
Memphis@SMU
58%
42%
27
30
✗
MEM −3.2
–
–
Final
#11North Carolina@Boston College
79%
21%
26
22
✓
UNC −13.0
–
–
Final
#23Oklahoma State@Kansas
93%
6.9%
47
7
✓
OKST −24.5
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@Kansas State
28%
72%
21
31
✓
KSU −10.0
–
–
Final
#18Texas A&M@#1Alabama
20%
80%
24
52
✓
ALA −14.0
–
–
Final
Charlotte@Florida Atlantic
28%
72%
17
21
✓
FAU −9.9
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Duke
80%
20%
38
31
✓
VT −13.6
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Kentucky
48%
52%
42
41
✗
UK −0.8
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@Middle Tennessee
65%
35%
20
17
✓
WKU −6.2
–
–
Final
Navy@Air Force
38%
62%
7
40
✓
AF −5.3
–
–

Prime time 7 games

Final
Georgia Southern@Louisiana-Monroe
79%
21%
35
30
✓
GASO −13.1
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@North Texas
43%
57%
41
31
✗
UNT −3.0
–
–
Final
Tulsa@#12UCFUpset
15%
85%
34
26
✗
UCF −17.5
–
–
Final
#16Oklahoma@Iowa StateUpset
72%
28%
30
37
✗
OU −9.8
–
–
Final
Arkansas@#21Mississippi StateUpset
18%
82%
21
14
✗
MSST −15.2
–
–
Final
#5Auburn@#4Georgia
44%
56%
6
27
✓
UGA −2.6
–
–
Final
#9LSU@Vanderbilt
92%
8.4%
41
7
✓
LSU −22.8
–
–

Sun, Oct 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Virginia@#2Clemson
8.4%
92%
23
41
✓
CLEM −23.0
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 3 · 1:00 PM ET North Alabama at Liberty Liberty −6.5 65%
Sat, Oct 3 · 4:00 PM ET Jacksonville State at Florida State Florida State −14.3 80%
Sat, Oct 3 · 1:30 PM ET Abilene Christian at Army Army −42.7 >99%
Fri, Oct 2 · 7:00 PM ET Campbell at Wake Forest Wake Forest −34.3 98%