The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 10 slate, 2020

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 49 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 16 · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 44

Wilder than 44% of weeks in the archive.

10 upsets against 13.4 expected

  • Biggest shockMaryland over Penn State5.9% chance · won 35-19
  • Runner-upLiberty over Virginia Tech11% chance · won 38-35
  • Runner-upColorado State over Wyoming25% chance · won 34-24

Upsets

Wed, Nov 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 2 games

Final
Eastern Michigan@Kent State
34%
66%
23
27
✓
KENT −6.0
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Akron
71%
29%
58
13
✓
WMU −9.2
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
Bowling Green@Toledo
26%
74%
3
38
✓
TOL −9.7
–
–

Thu, Nov 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Wyoming@Colorado State
75%
25%
24
34
✗
WYO −11.1
–
–

Time TBD 3 games

Final
Buffalo@Northern Illinois
64%
36%
49
30
✓
BUF −6.2
–
–
Final
Ohio@Central Michigan
43%
57%
27
30
✓
CMU −2.1
–
–
Final
Ball State@Miami (OH)
45%
55%
31
38
✓
M-OH −1.4
–
–

Fri, Nov 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 3 games

Final
#22Miami (FL)@NC State
70%
30%
44
41
✓
MIA −8.8
–
–
Final
San Jose State@San Diego State
26%
74%
28
17
✗
SDSU −9.7
–
–
Final
#19BYU@#24Boise State
52%
48%
51
17
✓
BYU −1.4
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Utah State@Nevada
23%
77%
9
34
✓
NEV −11.4
–
–

Sat, Nov 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 15 games

Final
USF@Memphis
11%
89%
33
34
✓
MEM −19.5
–
–
Final
SMU@Temple
75%
25%
47
23
✓
SMU −11.2
–
–
Final
Tulane@East Carolina
67%
33%
38
21
✓
TULN −7.7
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Georgia State
17%
83%
34
52
✓
GAST −14.6
–
–
Final
#21North Carolina@Duke
79%
21%
56
24
✓
UNC −13.3
–
–
Final
Liberty@Virginia TechUpset
11%
89%
38
35
✗
VT −19.3
–
–
Final
West Virginia@#12Texas
24%
76%
13
17
✓
TEX −11.0
–
–
Final
Nebraska@Northwestern
35%
65%
13
21
✓
NU −5.8
–
–
Final
#11Michigan@IndianaUpset
64%
36%
21
38
✗
MICH −6.1
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Iowa
29%
71%
7
49
✓
IOWA −8.4
–
–
Final
Arizona State@#17USC
30%
70%
27
28
✓
USC −8.0
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Louisiana
16%
84%
20
27
✓
UL −15.4
–
–
Final
Troy@Georgia Southern
51%
49%
13
20
✗
TROY −0.9
–
–
Final
Boston College@Syracuse
74%
26%
16
13
✓
BC −10.9
–
–
Final
UMass@Marshall
0.4%
>99%
10
51
✓
MRSH −43.0
–
–

Afternoon 12 games

Final
Appalachian State@Texas State
90%
10%
38
17
✓
APP −20.5
–
–
Final
Houston@#13Cincinnati
17%
83%
10
38
✓
CIN −14.8
–
–
Final
Kansas@#10Oklahoma
0.8%
99%
9
62
✓
OU −38.6
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@TCU
18%
82%
18
34
✓
TCU −14.2
–
–
Final
#7Floridavs#4Georgia
34%
66%
44
28
✗
UGA −6.2
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Mississippi State
13%
87%
17
24
✓
MSST −17.8
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Illinois
58%
42%
41
14
✓
MINN −3.7
–
–
Final
Maryland@#8Penn StateUpset
5.9%
94%
35
19
✗
PSU −24.6
–
–
Final
Fresno State@UNLV
66%
34%
40
27
✓
FRES −7.1
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Florida State
54%
46%
41
17
✓
PITT −2.2
–
–
Final
#20Oklahoma State@Kansas State
66%
34%
20
18
✓
OKST −7.0
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@Florida Atlantic
14%
86%
6
10
✓
FAU −17.0
–
–

Prime time 5 games

Final
#3Clemson@#5Notre Dame
62%
38%
40
47
✗
CLEM −5.3
–
–
Final
Tennessee@Arkansas
51%
49%
13
24
✗
TENN −0.8
–
–
Final
Rutgers@#1Ohio State
0.6%
99%
27
49
✓
OSU −39.9
–
–
Final
Stanford@#15Oregon
28%
72%
14
35
✓
ORE −9.0
–
–
Final
South Alabama@Coastal Carolina
15%
85%
6
23
✓
CCU −16.3
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
Washington State@Oregon State
51%
49%
38
28
✓
WSU −0.8
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Hawaii
16%
84%
33
39
✓
HAW −15.2
–
–

Sun, Nov 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
Baylor@Iowa State
41%
59%
31
38
✓
ISU −3.1
–
–
Final
#14Texas A&M@South Carolina
63%
37%
48
3
✓
TA&M −5.9
–
–
Final
UCLA@Colorado
56%
44%
42
48
✗
UCLA −3.1
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 7 · 3:00 PM ET North Alabama at Southern Miss Southern Miss −11.7 78%