The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 7 slate, 2020

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 28 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 16 · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 65

Wilder than 65% of weeks in the archive.

10 upsets against 8.8 expected

  • Biggest shockFlorida State over North Carolina20% chance · won 31-28
  • Runner-upCoastal Carolina over Louisiana29% chance · won 30-27
  • Runner-upLiberty over Syracuse31% chance · won 38-21

Upsets

Wed, Oct 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Coastal Carolina@Louisiana
29%
71%
30
27
✗
UL −9.3
–
–

Thu, Oct 15

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Georgia State@Arkansas State
50%
50%
52
59
✓
ARST −0.1
–
–

Fri, Oct 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
SMU@Tulane
64%
36%
37
34
✓
SMU −6.0
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#21BYU@Houston
61%
39%
43
26
✓
BYU −4.7
–
–

Sat, Oct 17

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 12 games

Final
USF@Temple
24%
76%
37
39
✓
TEM −11.9
–
–
Final
Navy@East Carolina
55%
45%
27
23
✓
NAVY −2.1
–
–
Final
Texas State@South Alabama
60%
40%
20
30
✗
TXST −4.1
–
–
Final
#3Clemson@Georgia Tech
96%
4.2%
73
7
✓
CLEM −28.6
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@#24Miami (FL)
35%
65%
19
31
✓
MIA −6.5
–
–
Final
Liberty@Syracuse
31%
69%
38
21
✗
SYR −8.4
–
–
Final
Kansas@West Virginia
10%
90%
17
38
✓
WVU −21.0
–
–
Final
#8Auburn@South CarolinaUpset
68%
32%
22
30
✗
AUB −7.8
–
–
Final
Kentucky@#18TennesseeUpset
40%
60%
34
7
✗
TENN −4.1
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@UAB
29%
71%
14
37
✓
UAB −9.5
–
–
Final
Army@UTSA
72%
28%
28
16
✓
ARMY −9.4
–
–
Final
Louisville@#5Notre Dame
9.0%
91%
7
12
✓
ND −22.3
–
–

Afternoon 8 games

Final
#20UCF@MemphisUpset
60%
40%
49
50
✗
UCF −3.9
–
–
Final
Duke@NC State
37%
63%
20
31
✓
NCSU −5.6
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Arkansas
58%
42%
21
33
✗
MISS −3.3
–
–
Final
Virginia@Wake Forest
50%
50%
23
40
✗
PK
–
–
Final
#19Texas A&M@Mississippi State
65%
35%
28
14
✓
TA&M −6.3
–
–
Final
UMass@Georgia Southern
19%
81%
0
41
✓
GASO −14.5
–
–
Final
North Texas@Middle Tennessee
44%
56%
52
35
✗
MTSU −2.9
–
–
Final
Marshall@Louisiana Tech
75%
25%
35
17
✓
MRSH −10.9
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#10North Carolina@Florida StateUpset
80%
20%
28
31
✗
UNC −14.0
–
–

Sun, Oct 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Boston College@Virginia Tech
37%
63%
14
40
✓
VT −5.7
–
–
Final
#2Georgia@#1Alabama
47%
53%
24
41
✓
ALA −1.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 17 · 3:30 PM ET Eastern Kentucky at Troy Troy −36.0 98%