The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 8 slate, 2020

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 47 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 16 · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 42

Wilder than 42% of weeks in the archive.

12 upsets against 13.1 expected

  • Biggest shockSan Jose State over Air Force22% chance · won 17-6
  • Runner-upMiddle Tennessee over Rice23% chance · won 40-34
  • Runner-upIndiana over Penn State23% chance · won 36-35

Upsets

Thu, Oct 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Arkansas State@Appalachian State
17%
83%
17
45
✓
APP −14.6
–
–

Fri, Oct 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Tulsa@USF
82%
18%
42
13
✓
TLSA −15.1
–
–

Sat, Oct 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 14 games

Final
UTEP@Charlotte
8.8%
91%
28
38
✓
CLT −21.3
–
–
Final
Temple@Memphis
20%
80%
29
41
✓
MEM −13.0
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@Coastal Carolina
34%
66%
14
28
✓
CCU −6.2
–
–
Final
Syracuse@#2Clemson
0.7%
99%
21
47
✓
CLEM −38.9
–
–
Final
Florida State@Louisville
49%
51%
16
48
✓
LOU −0.1
–
–
Final
NC State@#19North Carolina
24%
76%
21
48
✓
UNC −10.9
–
–
Final
Kansas@Kansas State
7.2%
93%
14
55
✓
KSU −23.0
–
–
Final
#14Oklahoma@TCU
63%
37%
33
14
✓
OU −5.6
–
–
Final
#9Auburn@Ole Miss
69%
31%
35
28
✓
AUB −8.4
–
–
Final
Nebraska@#4Ohio State
10%
90%
17
52
✓
OSU −19.8
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Michigan State
30%
70%
38
27
✗
MSU −8.1
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Liberty
30%
70%
35
56
✓
LIB −7.8
–
–
Final
Tulane@#22UCF
19%
81%
34
51
✓
UCF −13.7
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Marshall
37%
63%
9
20
✓
MRSH −4.8
–
–

Afternoon 13 games

Final
Middle Tennessee@RiceUpset
23%
77%
40
34
✗
RICE −11.5
–
–
Final
Houston@Navy
67%
33%
37
21
✓
HOU −7.6
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Wake Forest
64%
36%
16
23
✗
VT −6.0
–
–
Final
#23Baylor@#17Texas
41%
59%
16
27
✓
TEX −3.3
–
–
Final
Iowa State@#10Oklahoma State
30%
70%
21
24
✓
OKST −7.8
–
–
Final
#1Alabama@Tennessee
92%
8.2%
48
17
✓
ALA −22.7
–
–
Final
#7Penn State@IndianaUpset
77%
23%
35
36
✗
PSU −12.2
–
–
Final
Iowa@Purdue
60%
40%
20
24
✗
IOWA −4.3
–
–
Final
#6Notre Dame@Pittsburgh
81%
19%
45
3
✓
ND −14.4
–
–
Final
Georgia State@Troy
49%
51%
36
34
✗
GAST −0.2
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Boston College
38%
62%
27
48
✓
BC −4.4
–
–
Final
#18Kentucky@MissouriUpset
70%
30%
10
20
✗
UK −9.1
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Texas Tech
74%
26%
27
34
✗
WVU −10.7
–
–

Prime time 8 games

Final
#25South Carolina@#8LSU
34%
66%
24
52
✓
LSU −6.3
–
–
Final
Utah State@Boise State
20%
80%
13
42
✓
BOIS −12.7
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Nevada
58%
42%
34
37
✗
WYO −3.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@South Alabama
23%
77%
14
38
✓
USA −11.3
–
–
Final
#12Michigan@Minnesota
59%
41%
49
24
✓
MICH −4.3
–
–
Final
Maryland@Northwestern
42%
58%
3
43
✓
NU −2.7
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Fresno State
52%
48%
34
19
✓
HAW −1.2
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@SMU
56%
44%
42
13
✓
CIN −2.8
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
Texas State@#21BYU
3.7%
96%
14
52
✓
BYU −28.3
–
–
Final
Air Force@San Jose StateUpset
78%
22%
6
17
✗
AF −12.6
–
–
Final
UNLV@San Diego State
36%
64%
6
34
✓
SDSU −5.0
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Louisiana@UAB
57%
43%
24
20
✓
UL −3.2
–
–
Final
Illinois@#13Wisconsin
24%
76%
7
45
✓
WIS −11.0
–
–

Sun, Oct 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Louisiana Tech@UTSA
50%
50%
26
27
✗
LT −0.5
–
–
Final
Virginia@#20Miami (FL)
18%
82%
14
19
✓
MIA −13.9
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 24 · 4:00 PM ET Chattanooga at Western Kentucky Western Kentucky −15.7 84%
Sat, Oct 24 · 12:00 PM ET Mercer at Army Army −27.3 96%
Fri, Oct 23 · 7:00 PM ET Jacksonville State at FIU FIU −8.4 71%