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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 9 slate, 2020

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 43 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 16 · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 57

Wilder than 57% of weeks in the archive.

13 upsets against 12.0 expected

  • Biggest shockMichigan State over Michigan6.3% chance · won 27-24
  • Runner-upVirginia over North Carolina21% chance · won 44-41
  • Runner-upMaryland over Minnesota26% chance · won 45-44

Upsets

Thu, Oct 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
South Alabama@Georgia Southern
36%
64%
17
24
✓
GASO −5.3
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Colorado State@Fresno State
57%
43%
17
38
✗
CSU −3.5
–
–

Fri, Oct 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 3 games

Final
Minnesota@Maryland
74%
26%
44
45
✗
MINN −10.7
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Tulsa
14%
86%
30
34
✓
TLSA −16.8
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Wyoming
58%
42%
7
31
✗
HAW −3.8
–
–

Sat, Oct 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 12 games

Final
UTSA@Florida Atlantic
22%
78%
3
24
✓
FAU −11.7
–
–
Final
Temple@Tulane
40%
60%
3
38
✓
TULN −3.6
–
–
Final
Memphis@#21Cincinnati
35%
65%
10
49
✓
CIN −5.6
–
–
Final
Coastal Carolina@Georgia State
60%
40%
51
0
✓
CCU −4.7
–
–
Final
Boston College@#3Clemson
3.0%
97%
28
34
✓
CLEM −29.8
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Syracuse
73%
27%
38
14
✓
WAKE −10.1
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Kansas
94%
6.1%
52
22
✓
ISU −25.1
–
–
Final
Kansas State@West Virginia
58%
42%
10
37
✗
KSU −3.9
–
–
Final
#4Georgia@#24Kentucky
82%
18%
14
3
✓
UGA −15.1
–
–
Final
Purdue@Illinois
62%
38%
31
24
✓
PUR −5.4
–
–
Final
Michigan State@#6MichiganUpset
6.3%
94%
27
24
✗
MICH −24.2
–
–
Final
#20UCF@Houston
65%
35%
44
21
✓
UCF −6.5
–
–

Afternoon 13 games

Final
Rice@Southern Miss
48%
52%
30
6
✗
USM −0.5
–
–
Final
Troy@Arkansas State
41%
59%
38
10
✗
ARST −3.2
–
–
Final
UAB@Louisiana Tech
67%
33%
34
37
✗
UAB −7.4
–
–
Final
#5Notre Dame@Georgia Tech
95%
5.2%
31
13
✓
ND −26.3
–
–
Final
TCU@Baylor
38%
62%
33
23
✗
BAY −4.3
–
–
Final
#10LSU@#12Auburn
55%
45%
11
48
✗
LSU −2.4
–
–
Final
Indiana@Rutgers
71%
29%
37
21
✓
IU −9.3
–
–
Final
Northwestern@#25IowaUpset
44%
56%
21
20
✗
IOWA −1.9
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@Louisiana-Monroe
98%
1.6%
31
13
✓
APP −34.8
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Louisville
59%
41%
42
35
✓
VT −4.1
–
–
Final
#14Texas@#18Oklahoma State
48%
52%
41
34
✗
OKST −0.5
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Vanderbilt
82%
18%
54
21
✓
MISS −15.1
–
–
Final
Boise State@Air Force
62%
38%
49
30
✓
BOIS −5.2
–
–

Prime time 8 games

Final
Charlotte@Duke
43%
57%
19
53
✓
DUKE −2.2
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@#2Alabama
2.6%
97%
0
41
✓
ALA −30.7
–
–
Final
San Jose State@New Mexico
60%
40%
38
21
✓
SJSU −4.3
–
–
Final
Navy@SMU
24%
76%
37
51
✓
SMU −10.7
–
–
Final
Missouri@#9Florida
16%
84%
17
41
✓
FLA −15.2
–
–
Final
Arkansas@#15Texas A&M
24%
76%
31
42
✓
TA&M −10.8
–
–
Final
#1Ohio State@#8Penn State
79%
21%
38
25
✓
OSU −13.3
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Utah State
78%
22%
38
7
✓
SDSU −12.6
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
Western Kentucky@#19BYU
2.4%
98%
10
41
✓
BYU −31.4
–
–
Final
Nevada@UNLV
54%
46%
37
19
✓
NEV −2.0
–
–

Sun, Nov 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
Louisiana@Texas State
84%
16%
44
34
✓
UL −16.3
–
–
Final
#17North Carolina@VirginiaUpset
79%
21%
41
44
✗
UNC −13.2
–
–
Final
#11Oklahoma@Texas Tech
87%
13%
62
28
✓
OU −18.7
–
–