The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 4 slate, 2020

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 30 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 16 · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 50

Wilder than 50% of weeks in the archive.

6 upsets against 7.6 expected

  • Biggest shockKansas State over Oklahoma16% chance · won 38-35
  • Runner-upMississippi State over LSU21% chance · won 44-34
  • Runner-upUTEP over Louisiana-Monroe22% chance · won 31-6

Upsets

Thu, Sep 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
UAB@South Alabama
56%
44%
42
10
✓
UAB −2.5
–
–

Sat, Sep 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 9 games

Final
#10UCF@East Carolina
89%
11%
51
28
✓
UCF −20.2
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@Louisiana
17%
83%
18
20
✓
UL −16.0
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Syracuse
58%
42%
20
37
✗
GT −3.2
–
–
Final
Louisville@Pittsburgh
38%
62%
20
23
✓
PITT −5.0
–
–
Final
Kansas State@#6OklahomaUpset
17%
84%
38
35
✗
OU −16.3
–
–
Final
#13Florida@Ole Miss
65%
35%
51
35
✓
FLA −6.5
–
–
Final
Kentucky@#12Auburn
26%
74%
13
29
✓
AUB −10.8
–
–
Final
FIU@Liberty
65%
35%
34
36
✗
FIU −6.2
–
–
Final
Iowa State@TCU
42%
58%
37
34
✗
TCU −3.7
–
–

Afternoon 8 games

Final
#5Texas@Texas Tech
92%
7.8%
63
56
✓
TEX −23.4
–
–
Final
West Virginia@#19Oklahoma State
33%
67%
13
27
✓
OKST −7.4
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@#7LSUUpset
21%
79%
44
34
✗
LSU −13.7
–
–
Final
UTEP@Louisiana-MonroeUpset
22%
78%
31
6
✗
ULM −12.7
–
–
Final
Army@Cincinnati
40%
60%
10
24
✓
CIN −4.2
–
–
Final
Duke@Virginia
40%
60%
20
38
✓
UVA −4.2
–
–
Final
#9Georgia@Arkansas
85%
15%
37
10
✓
UGA −17.1
–
–
Final
Texas State@Boston College
16%
84%
21
24
✓
BC −16.5
–
–

Prime time 6 games

Final
Tulane@Southern Miss
68%
32%
66
24
✓
TULN −7.5
–
–
Final
#4Alabama@Missouri
87%
13%
38
19
✓
ALA −18.7
–
–
Final
Florida State@Miami (FL)
45%
55%
10
52
✓
MIA −2.1
–
–
Final
Kansas@#23Baylor
10%
90%
14
47
✓
BAY −21.2
–
–
Final
Tennessee@South Carolina
55%
45%
31
27
✓
TENN −2.0
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@#16Texas A&M
11%
89%
12
17
✓
TA&M −20.2
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Troy@#22BYU
19%
82%
7
48
✓
BYU −15.0
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Middle Tennessee@UTSA
40%
60%
35
37
✓
UTSA −4.2
–
–

Sun, Sep 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
NC State@Virginia Tech
39%
61%
24
45
✓
VT −4.8
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 26 · 7:00 PM ET Stephen F. Austin at SMU SMU −50.7 >99%
Sat, Sep 26 · 7:00 PM ET Houston Christian at Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech −33.3 98%
Sat, Sep 26 · 12:00 PM ET Campbell at Appalachian State Appalachian State −44.0 >99%