The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Bowls slate, 1984

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 18 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 20

Wilder than 20% of weeks in the archive.

3 upsets against 6.9 expected

  • Biggest shockUCLA over Miami (FL)28% chance · won 39-37
  • Runner-upUSC over Ohio State30% chance · won 20-17
  • Runner-upArmy over Michigan State42% chance · won 10-6

Upsets

Sat, Dec 15

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Virginia TechvsAir Force
43%
57%
7
23
✓
AF −2.4
–
–
Final
ToledovsUNLV
41%
59%
13
30
✓
UNLV −3.1
–
–

Fri, Dec 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Michiganvs#3BYU
25%
75%
17
24
✓
BYU −10.4
–
–

Sat, Dec 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
Michigan StatevsArmy
58%
42%
6
10
✗
MSU −3.8
–
–
Final
#5Florida Statevs#19Georgia
61%
39%
17
17
✓
FSU −4.8
–
–
Final
#20Tennesseevs#12Maryland
44%
56%
27
28
✓
MD −1.9
–
–

Wed, Dec 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#22Texasvs#15Iowa
45%
55%
17
55
✓
IOWA −1.6
–
–

Thu, Dec 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#18Arkansasvs#9Auburn
40%
60%
15
21
✓
AUB −3.6
–
–

Fri, Dec 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#23South Carolinavs#10Oklahoma State
35%
65%
14
21
✓
OKST −5.5
–
–

Sat, Dec 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
WisconsinvsKentucky
45%
55%
19
20
✓
UK −1.5
–
–
Final
#21Notre Damevs#13SMU
44%
56%
20
27
✓
SMU −1.7
–
–

Mon, Dec 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
PurduevsVirginia
39%
61%
24
27
✓
UVA −3.9
–
–
Final
TCUvs#24West Virginia
44%
56%
14
31
✓
WVU −2.0
–
–

Tue, Jan 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 5 games

Final
Houstonvs#16Boston College
29%
71%
28
45
✓
BC −8.2
–
–
Final
#17LSUvs#1Nebraska
24%
76%
10
28
✓
NEB −10.6
–
–
Final
#4Ohio StatevsUSCUpset
70%
30%
17
20
✗
OSU −9.0
–
–
Final
#8Miami (FL)vsUCLAUpset
72%
28%
37
39
✗
MIA −9.8
–
–
Final
#7Oklahomavs#6Washington
49%
51%
17
28
✓
WASH −0.1
–
–