The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 3 slate, 1984

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 48 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 2

Chaos 16

Wilder than 16% of weeks in the archive.

11 upsets against 13.9 expected

  • Biggest shockPacific over Nevada17% chance · won 12-7
  • Runner-upCal State Fullerton over Hawaii22% chance · won 21-13
  • Runner-upSyracuse over Maryland31% chance · won 23-7

Upsets

Sat, Sep 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 39 games

Final
California@Arizona
35%
65%
13
23
✓
ARIZ −5.5
–
–
Final
Boston College@#12AlabamaUpset
32%
68%
38
31
✗
ALA −6.8
–
–
Final
Baylor@#4BYU
22%
78%
13
47
✓
BYU −11.3
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@HawaiiUpset
22%
78%
21
13
✗
HAW −11.4
–
–
Final
#7Clemson@Virginia
70%
30%
55
0
✓
CLEM −8.7
–
–
Final
Indiana@Duke
35%
65%
24
31
✓
DUKE −5.4
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@#13Georgia
34%
66%
19
26
✓
UGA −6.0
–
–
Final
Missouri@#18Illinois
38%
62%
24
30
✓
ILL −4.1
–
–
Final
Iowa State@#15Iowa
19%
81%
21
59
✓
IOWA −13.0
–
–
Final
Wichita State@Kansas
9.0%
91%
7
31
✓
KU −20.4
–
–
Final
Kent State@Kentucky
30%
70%
0
42
✓
UK −7.5
–
–
Final
#8Florida@LSU
58%
42%
21
21
✓
FLA −3.8
–
–
Final
#1Miami (FL)@#10Michigan
60%
40%
14
22
✗
MIA −4.5
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Colorado
45%
55%
24
21
✗
COLO −1.6
–
–
Final
Rice@Minnesota
40%
60%
24
31
✓
MINN −3.3
–
–
Final
Memphis@Ole Miss
55%
45%
6
22
✗
MEM −2.5
–
–
Final
Colorado State@#19Mississippi State
17%
83%
9
14
✓
MSST −14.2
–
–
Final
Wyoming@#2Nebraska
11%
89%
7
42
✓
NEB −18.5
–
–
Final
San Jose State@UNLV
46%
54%
15
30
✓
UNLV −0.8
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@New Mexico
25%
75%
21
61
✓
UNM −10.0
–
–
Final
Ohio@NC State
28%
72%
6
43
✓
NCSU −8.4
–
–
Final
Oregon State@#11Ohio State
13%
87%
14
22
✓
OSU −17.3
–
–
Final
Stanford@#22Oklahoma
23%
77%
7
19
✓
OU −11.1
–
–
Final
#24Oklahoma State@Arizona State
42%
58%
45
3
✗
ASU −2.7
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@Oregon
18%
82%
17
28
✓
ORE −13.5
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Penn State
21%
79%
12
15
✓
PSU −11.8
–
–
Final
#21Notre Dame@PurdueUpset
62%
38%
21
23
✗
ND −5.2
–
–
Final
Utah State@USC
31%
69%
7
42
✓
USC −7.2
–
–
Final
Syracuse@#25MarylandUpset
31%
69%
23
7
✗
MD −7.2
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Temple
45%
55%
0
17
✓
TEM −1.3
–
–
Final
Toledo@Ball State
59%
41%
20
2
✓
TOL −4.2
–
–
Final
#16UCLA@San Diego State
68%
32%
18
15
✓
UCLA −7.6
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Vanderbilt
33%
67%
14
26
✓
VAN −6.5
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Wake Forest
58%
42%
21
20
✓
VT −3.8
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Washington
19%
81%
0
26
✓
WASH −12.9
–
–
Final
Utah@Washington State
36%
64%
40
42
✓
WSU −4.8
–
–
Final
Louisville@#6West Virginia
9.3%
91%
6
30
✓
WVU −20.1
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Western Michigan
46%
54%
13
17
✓
WMU −0.9
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Wisconsin
29%
71%
14
27
✓
WIS −7.9
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 8 · TBD Northern Colorado at #20 Air Force Air Force −35.2 99%
Sat, Sep 8 · TBD Richmond at Bowling Green Bowling Green −28.5 97%
Sat, Sep 8 · TBD Akron at Cincinnati Cincinnati −5.4 65%
Sat, Sep 8 · TBD Fresno State at Boise State Fresno State −0.1 49%
Sat, Sep 8 · TBD Louisiana at Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech −2.2 57%
Sat, Sep 8 · TBD Nevada at Pacific Nevada −15.1 83%
Sat, Sep 8 · TBD The Citadel at South Carolina South Carolina −30.8 98%
Sat, Sep 8 · TBD West Texas at Texas-Arlington Texas-Arlington −4.7 63%
Sat, Sep 8 · TBD Idaho State at UTEP UTEP −20.7 91%